Iran, Lebanon sign 5-year security pact
The Jerusalem Post
(November 27, 2008) - Iran and Lebanon
have signed a security agreement, according to which Iran will supply
the Lebanese army with weapons and equipment over the next five years,
the London-based daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat reported. The agreement
between the two nations was signed during Lebanese President Michel
Suleiman's two-day visit to Teheran, which ended on Tuesday.
Iran
Urges Lebanese to Unite Against Israel
FOCUS News Agency
(November 26, 2008) - Iran, a main
backer of Lebanon's Shi'ite group Hezbollah, urged the Lebanese people
Tuesday to unite to confront Israel, the Islamic Republic's arch foe,
Reuters informed. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made the
comments to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman during a visit to Iran
that included touring an exhibition by the Defense Ministry, Iranian
media reported. "Iran believes the capability of all Lebanese groups
should be at the service of (Lebanon's) power and unity to confront the
danger of the Zionist regime," Khamenei told Suleiman, the official IRNA
news agency reported.
Faltering EU Deal Strengthens Islam
Hurriyet News
(November 26, 2008) - Turkey's bid for
eventual European Union membership is likely to fail and this will
further boost Islamist and nationalist tendencies already strong in the
society. "Over the next 15 years, Turkey’s most likely course involves a
blending of Islamic and nationalist strains, which could serve as a
model for other rapidly modernizing countries in the Middle East," said
the "Global Trends - 2025" report published Thursday by the National
Intelligence Council, or NIC, which brings together all 16 U.S. spy
agencies.
Iran, Syria tauten grip on Lebanon, Tehran woos Christian president
DEBKAfile
(November 22, 2008)
- Tehran and Damascus are going all out to get their hooks
into Lebanon’s Christian politicians and wean them away from their’
traditional ties with the West. President Michel Suleiman this week
accepted an Iranian invitation to visit Tehran this month, while another
Lebanese Christian leader, Hizballah’s ally Gen. Michel Aoun, arranged
to visit Damascus.
Russia to Sell Heavy Arms to Lebanon
Israel National News
(November 10, 2008)
- Following a meeting last week between leading Lebanese
legislator Sa'ad Hariri and Russian leaders, Hariri was quoted by
Russian media this weekend as saying Russia will sell heavy weaponry to
Lebanon. Previously, Hariri said that he hoped Russia would help Lebanon
claim Mt. Dov from Israel. Russia is expecting Lebanon to recognize the
independence of the breakaway Georgian districts of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. Russia: A Future Radical Muslim Superpower? Front Page Magazine (November 9, 2008) - Frontpage Interview's guest today is Ilshat Alsayef, one of the founding members of Muslims Against Sharia. He was born in of the Asian republics of the former Soviet Union. A military officer for most of his adult life, Mr. Alsayef started his military career as a Second Lieutenant during the Soviet-Afghan war and retired as a Lieutenant-Colonel after the First Chechen War. FP: Ilshat Alsayef, welcome to Frontpage Interview. Alsayef: Thank you very much for having me here. FP: Tell us about the state of radicalization of Muslims in Russia and other ex-Soviet republics. Alsayef: There were two waves of radicalization of the ex-Soviet Muslims. The first wave started after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. After the fall of communism, former Soviet Asian republics, now independent countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) as well as autonomous regions of Russia (Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia), experienced a resurgence of religious freedom. Not being able to freely practice their religion for a few generations, some of the local Muslims went overboard. Salafi groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and later al Qaeda, became popular among newly-minted religious zealots. While the conflicts in Asian countries were mostly religious vs. secular, the Chechen conflict also had the independence element. The second wave of radicalization started at the turn of the century. Some people claim that it was a result of the American War on Terror, which many Muslims interpret as the American War on Islam, but in reality the reason is skyrocketing oil revenues of Wahhabi states. Centuries-old local mosques are being replaced by modern, Wahhabi-built mosques. Old imams who survived the communists are being replaced by Wahhabi clerics. This is not only true for predominantly Muslim countries like Tajikistan, but also for autonomous regions inside of Russia like Bashkiria and Tatarstan, where most people consider themselves more Russian than Muslim. You can see similar developments in former Yugoslavia, where moderate imams with little financial backing are being replaced by radicals with virtually unlimited financing. If current demographic trends hold, Muslims in Russia may become a majority by the mid-century. And if current radicalization trends hold, Russia may become a war theatre comparable to Chechnya or Lebanon, but on a much larger scale. FP: Expand for us a bit please on the demographic trends in Russia. Muslims may be the majority in Russia by mid-century? What will this mean? Alsayef: The native Russian population is on the decline. About a year ago, the government started to provide a special subsidy for a second child; 250,000 rubles, which is about two average yearly salaries. Attracted by the economic opportunities, there is a steady stream of Muslims from the former Soviet republics and predominantly Muslim parts of the Russian Caucasus. Those Muslims tend to have much larger families than native Russian Muslims. Small Muslim communities of Moscow and St. Petersburg that comprised less 1% of the population 20 years ago have increased more than ten-fold. The new generation of Muslims is more religious. Unfortunately, since most of the mosques are either completely or partially funded by the Wahhabis, the new generation is also more radical. 20 years ago, Russian Muslims were completely assimilated, both culturally and linguistically. The new generation tends to create its own communities. Those "enclaves" are easier radicalized. If the trends of isolation and radicalization continue along with current demographic trends and rising oil prices, it is quite possible that by mid-century Russia will become a radical Muslim superpower. FP: How can the current radicalization trend be stopped? The key is to stop skyrocketing oil revenues for Wahhabi states, yes? But how? Alsayef: I could never understand why America spends a quarter of a trillion dollars a year on Persian Gulf oil while not using its own oil resources. Especially when some of this money goes to finance radical Islam worldwide (including in America itself) and the American economy suffers from high fuels prices. Luckily, Russia does not have oil dependency. The long-term solution to stop the flow of petro-dollars to the Wahhabis is to create a non-petroleum energy solution. It will probably not happen in our lifetime, but it doesn't mean that it shouldn't be worked on today. The short-term solution is to combat radical Islam inside every democratic country. One part is to enact legislation to criminalize the spread of radical Islam. It is not an easy task, especially in America where Freedom of Speech is the cornerstone of the Constitution. However, some of the speech could be criminalized, i.e., a death threat to an individual. Advocating Sharia is a death threat to Democratic society. If you can protect an individual, you should be able to protect the society as a whole. The other needed step is to empower moderate Muslims to combat Islamism in the public square. Unfortunately, neither the Russian nor the American government seems to distinguish between moderate Muslims and 'soft' Jihadis. In fact, Putin went so far as to condemn the publication of Prophet Mohammed cartoons. While Russia is empowering Iran, America is empowering Saudi Arabia, which is even worse. On top of that, America is legitimizing 'soft' Jihadis and advance of Sharia by putting them in charge of government and academic programs and inviting them to major political events. FP: Where exactly does Russia stand in the War on Terror? There is, for instance, much evidence that the Putin regime is in league with Islamists on many levels. (Click here to see Pavel Stroilov interview.) Alsayef: I wouldn't call this evidence. When someone portrays that "FSB blew up four apartment blocks in Russia, and then were caught red-handed attempting to blow-up the fifth" as a fact, the rest of his "facts" must be taken with a grain of salt. Did the FSB have the ability to blow up four buildings in Moscow? Absolutely. Would the FSB blow up those buildings? I find it highly improbable. Could the FSB get caught red-handed attempting to blow-up the fifth building? Absolutely not. Who would they get caught by? The cops? The cops can't touch them. By the FSB itself? Not bloody likely. The "fact" that the FSB blew up those buildings is as much of a fact as the "fact" that the CIA blew up the Twin Towers. It is nothing more than a conspiracy theory, and Mr. Stroilov should know better than present it as a fact. The claim that "The Putin-Medvedev regime is doomed" shows that Mr. Stroilov seems to prefer wishful thinking to reality. Barring an act of God, Putin will rule Russia for a long time, no matter what title he comes up with, president, prime minister, or Tzar. FP: Well, the connection between the FSB and the blow up of four buildings in Moscow appears to me to be pretty solid in terms of what I have studied, and the Twin Towers conspiracy theory analogy doesn’t match in anyway. But we’ll leave this for another forum. Pavel Stroilov is welcome to contribute to our pages on this issue if he wishes. Let’s get to Putin and the tie to Islamists. Alsayef: In terms of the tie between Putin to the Islamists, first, and pretty much the only one, is Bushehr. Everybody knows that the Iranian nuclear program, euphemistically speaking, goes beyond energy. The Russians know that. The Americans know that. Even the IAEA knows that. What the Russians don't seem to understand, or maybe simply don't care about, is that an Iranian-made nuke could be detonated in Moscow just as easily as it could be detonated in Washington. Since I'm not privy to the Russian-Iranian nuclear deal, I might not be aware of some safeguards. For example, the Russians might control the weaponized nuclear material production and would be able to match the bomb signature to the reactor. However it is unlikely for Iranians to use a nuclear weapon without plausible deniability, therefore it probably will be given to a third party. This third party most likely would be a radical Islamic group that might ignore the wishes of its masters and detonate the bomb anywhere. Second is Syria. Syria is a Muslim country and it has a fascist regime, but it is secular. However, Syria-Iranian proxy Hizballah is an Islamist group and weapons sold to Syria have been known to turn up in Hizballah arsenal. Third is Venezuela. Again, Venezuela's government is hardly Islamist, but Chavez offered Venezuelan passports to radical Muslims who want to go to the United States. As for al-Zawahiri, being the FSB secret agent, that's just another unsubstantiated and highly improbable rumor. FP: Russia’s stance on the War on Terror? Alsayef: If the terror is within Russian borders, Russia is very forcefully against it. The famous Putin's phrase about the terrorists is "budem mochit' v sortire" which roughly translates into "we'll whack them in the toilet." But if the terror is outside of Russia and it ties up American resources, then we have a different story. After all, Putin still sees America as Russia’s main rival; the fact that the feelings are not mutual, is somewhat of an insult to him. Russia doesn't mind that much. However, the biggest threat to Russia is not America, it is radicalizing Muslim population within its own borders as well as in Russia's former satellites. Putin is focusing on America while overlooking a growing Islamist threat at home. As the last decades show, radicalization of Muslims always translates into bloodshed, but Putin's government seems to think that it is immune. FP: Ilshat Alsayef, thank you for joining Frontpage Interview. Alsayef: Thank you Jamie.
Russia determined to broaden interaction with Islamic world -
Medvedev
Interfax-Religion (October 28, 2008)
- President Dmitry Medvedev has sent greetings to the fourth
meeting of the Russia - Islamic World strategic vision group in
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Kremlin reported on Tuesday. "Russia's
developing cooperation with the Islamic states remains highly
dynamic. Your Group is playing no small part in this," Medvedev
writes.
Rebbetzin Esther Jungreis: Prepare for the Coming of Messiah
Israel National News (October 27, 2008)
- Internationally renowned Jewish inspirational speaker
Rebbetzin Esther Jungreis warns that we are feeling the "birth pangs
of the Mashiach," with limited time to save ourselves from dark
prophecies surrounding his arrival.
Syria reportedly boosts troop deployment near Lebanese border
The Jerusalem Post
(October 31, 2008) - Syria has boosted
its troop deployment near the Lebanese border up to the Beka valley
region, the Lebanese As-Safir newspaper said Friday. Some 3,000
heavily armed troops were reportedly deployed in the area. A
Lebanese army official was quoted as saying that Syria was deploying
its troops along the border with eastern Lebanon "like it did in
September on the northern border." However, he said the increased
troop presence was aimed at stopping smuggling and apprehending
fugitives along the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Libya offers to host Russian military base
Breitbart
(October 31, 2008) - Libyan leader
Moamer Kadhafi, who visits Moscow Friday for the first time since 1985,
will offer to host a Russian naval base in his north African country, a
Russian newspaper reported. "Libya is ready to host a Russian naval
military base," the Kommersant reported, citing a source close to the
preparations for Kadhafi's first visit here since the days of the Soviet
Union.
Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test
Israel National News
(October 30, 2008) - A weekend 5.0
Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an
Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project. The
report is an
Israel Insider exclusive. This past Saturday night, southern Iran
experienced what was reported as a significant earthquake - a seismic
event measuring 5.0 on the Richter scale. Its epicenter was just north
of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Abu Dhabi
and Oman and which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf.
Solana’s speech to Institute for Security Studies
Consilium Europa
(October 30, 2008) - Dear friends, Let
me start our "tour d'horizon" with the financial crisis. It has been the
emblematic event of 2008, putting all else into the background. It is
worth analysing, especially for its consequences for foreign policy.
Allow me to make some observations:
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Iran
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Islam
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Gog/Magog
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EU/UN
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4th Kingdom
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Solana
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Seal
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America
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Economic Crisis
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Egyptian War Games Cause For Concern in Israel, Lawmaker Says
CNS News
(October 29, 2008) - Israel is upset
over Egyptian military exercises in which the simulated “enemy” is
Israel, and some are calling on the U.S. to reconsider its aid to Egypt
because of it. Israel and Egypt – two U.S. regional allies – signed a
U.S.-sponsored peace treaty in 1979 – Israel’s first with an Arab
nation.
Mideast: Putting the 'Peace Puzzle' Together
CBN News
(October 28, 2008) - As U.S.
presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama begin the last week
of campaigning before next Tuesday's election, events shaping up in
Israel, Syria and the Palestinian Authority will no doubt factor into
the winning candidate's challenges in the White House.
U.S. attacks inside Syria
WorldNet Daily
(October 26, 2008) - The U.S. Army
today confirmed it carried out a raid inside a Syrian village near the
Iraqi border, killing at least eight. Today's operation is the first in
which American forces so openly attacked militants on Syrian soil,
clearly broadening the scope of the U.S. military campaign in Iraq.
Russia blasts off back to the future
Scotland on Sunday
(October 26, 2008) - As they tracked
Russian military maneuvers last week, the US government's
Kremlin-watchers might have been forgiven for wondering if they were
seeing recycled newsreels. A huge exercise, Stability 2008, spread tens
of thousands of troops, thousands of vehicles and scores of combat
aircraft across nearly all 11 time zones of Russian territory in the
largest war game since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was no
specified enemy, but the Russian forces appeared to be enacting a
nationwide effort to quell unrest along Russia's southern border – and
to repulse a US-led attack by Nato forces, according to experts in
Moscow and Washington.
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Israel
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Islam
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Isaiah 17
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Gog/Magog
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| Lebanon is a problem for the entire region. Hezbollah
operates freely from Lebanon, and Israel routinely violates Lebanese
territory and airspace in an attempt to keep Hezbollah in check. The
summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel inflicted massive damage on
Lebanon in a conflict that seemed to diminish some of the mystique
surrounding Israeli military might in the region. A significant portion
of the Lebanese Army is sympathetic to Hezbollah, and the Lebanese
government is fragmented and, for all intents and purposes,
dysfunctional. United Nations peacekeepers are present in southern
Lebanon, and Iran exercises some influence as well. Syria has been attempting in recent months to improve
its standing in the region and in the eyes of the international
community. Syria's alignment with Iran has been strained at times
recently, and negotiations with Israel have not played very well with
hard liners within the Syrian intelligence and military establishments.
The key to much of Syria's power and wealth is its influence in Lebanon,
as well as its degree of control over Lebanon, and it would not be far
fetched to believe that Syria would move its military forces across the
border. If Syria did act, there would probably few
repercussions, and any condemnations would be largely symbolic. Israel
would not intervene, and probably could not if it wanted to.
Politically, Israel is just too fragile at the moment. The United States
is preoccupied with Afghanistan, Iraq, and a financial crisis at home,
and the United Nations force in southern Lebanon is more for show than
anything else. There is a window of opportunity right now for Syria to
reestablish control over Lebanon. That window could close suddenly, and
Syria may well be positioning itself to act before time runs out.
Top Iran officials recommend preemptive strike against Israel
Haaretz
(October 22, 2008) - Senior Tehran
officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to
prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior
Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in
London. The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by
Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet,
a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy.
MEPs debate EU response to world crises with French president Sarkozy
European Parliament (October 21, 2008)
- At a debate with MEPs on the EU summit of 15-16 October, EU
President-in-Office Sarkozy said the Russo-Georgian war and the
financial crisis had strengthened the case for a united European
response to major world problems. He rejected any idea that the EU
should backtrack on its climate change commitments because of the
crisis. While the main EP political groups broadly supported him, some
felt the roots of the financial crisis went back a long way and queried
the role of unbridled free markets.
Russian envoy: Tehran-Moscow ties in an unprecedented stage
Islamic Republic News
Agency
(October 16, 2008) - Russian Ambassador to Tehran
Alexander Sadonikov said here Wednesday that Iran-Russia relations
are now in an unprecedented stage and mutual cooperation in the oil
and gas sectors will get a boost in the near future. "Now, there are
good and growing cooperation between the two countries in different
economic and industrial sectors, an instance of which being Bushehr
atomic power plant," Sadonikov told IRNA on the sidelines of his
tour of the Teachers Training Center of Iran's technical and
Vocational Organization. He said Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan have
launched good cooperation in transportation sector, especially in
the Caspian Sea, which will also be in favor of Europe and the
region. He lauded Iran's progress in setting up such a big and
developed center for technical and vocational purposes.
Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria
Space War
(October 16, 2008) - Until Russia can revitalize
its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the
Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than
being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet the
Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a
diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal
and to America's ally Israel. The increased Russian naval presence in
the region means that the Kremlin is seeking to cultivate Syria as a
close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the
Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in the Black Sea port of
Sevastopol.
From Syrian fishing port to naval power base: Russia moves into the
Mediterranean
Guardian UK (October
8, 2008) - Military foothold part of closer ties with Damascus.
Move could deter Israel from attacks on Syria. During balmy evenings in
the sleepy Syrian port of Tartous locals promenade along the seafront or
suck on hookahs discussing the two great pillars of their society:
business and family.
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Islam
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Isaiah 17
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Gog/Magog
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Iceland turns to Russia for bailout
RIA Novosti
(October 10, 2008) - Russia has agreed to bail out
Iceland by granting this small island state a huge stabilization loan at
an unbelievably low interest rate. Is it an act of wanton generosity, or
a far-sighted geopolitical step? And in general, four billion euros, is
it a lot or a little? The fate of Iceland has until recently not
concerned Russia one bit. Now only a lazy person is not discussing the
incredible sum the "island of stability" is going to inject into the
economy of a sinking island of geysers. There are several reasons why
Russia should agree to issue the loan to Iceland. The first and
overwhelming one is geo-economic. Leaders in many countries are
gradually beginning to understand that a world caught in the maelstrom
of a financial crisis could be saved only by cooperative efforts. This
was a theme running through a three-day world policy conference in
Evian; it will certainly be taken up at an annual meeting of the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
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Economic Crisis
| Proverbs 22:7 This principle is how I believe
the world will be forced into a global fix for the economic failures
by those who are the lenders. Perhaps the servants will be offered a
clean slate in exchange for participation in the new system. I
wouldn't be surprised because ultimately the spirit behind this is
not worried about making money, but pulling souls away from their
Creator and according to scripture, those who accept the terms of
the new cashless system that relies on a mark make not only an
immediate decision, but one that affects their eternity. Revelation 14:9-11 It seems to me the house of
cards is falling and everything that they try to do in order to prop
it back up fails to do anything to stop it. How close are we to
being indentured servants as a nation who will be offered a new
financial system as a way out? I don't know for sure, but there are
already globalization talks going on for the financial system:
Foreign economists urge 'global plan'
Syria
'boosts troops on border'
BBC News
(October 7, 2008) - Syria has reportedly moved
more troops to its side of the eastern Lebanese border, weeks after
boosting numbers along Lebanon's northern frontier. Reports said the
troops had dug trenches and set up checkpoints in the northern Bekaa
valley region. The Syrian authorities have not commented on the latest
deployment. Damascus said earlier troop movements were aimed at
combating smugglers. On Monday, the US warned Syria against a possible
intervention in Lebanon.
Ministers okay Moscow's property claim
The Jerusalem Post
(October 5, 2008) - The cabinet on Sunday voted to
transfer ownership of Sergei's Courtyard in downtown Jerusalem's Russian
Compound to the Russian government. The move is the culmination of four
years of negotiations, after then-Russian President Vladimir Putin, who
is currently his country's prime minister, laid claim to the site on
behalf of the Russian Orthodox Church. Sergei's Courtyard currently
houses offices of the Agriculture Ministry and the Nature and National
Parks Protection Authority, and the Jerusalem branch of the Society for
the Protection of Nature in Israel.
Syria poised to invade Lebanon
WorldNet Daily
(September 24, 2008) - New concerns are being raised by the
possibility that Syria may launch troops into Lebanon by using a pretext
of concern over assaults on a Lebanese faction sympathetic to the Syrian
leadership, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
Confirmed reports reveal that there are some 10,000 Syrian special
forces troops massed on the northern border of Lebanon. A small Alawite
faction near the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, has been in repeated
gun fights with Sunni militants. The area's majority population is
Sunni. The Alawites are of the same tribe as Syrian President Bashar
Assad. Most of Syria's top security and military officials also are
Alawite.
Russia sends warships on military exercise in America's 'backyard' as
the new Cold War intensifies
Daily Mail UK
(September 23, 2008) - Russian warships set off for the
Caribbean yesterday for their first naval exercises on the U.S.'s
doorstep since the Cold War. The vessels from the Northern Fleet,
including nuclear missile cruiser the Peter the Great, left their base
in Severomorsk to hold joint manoeuvres with Venezuela.
Ten
Russian warships have docked at Syrian port
DEBKAfile
(September 19, 2008) - Israeli military and naval commanders
were taken by surprise by Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov's disclosure that 10
Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus,
DEBKAfile’s military sources report. Moscow and Damascus have worked
fast to put in place the agreement reached in Moscow on Sept. 12 by
Russian navy commander, Adm. Vladimir Wysotsky and Syrian naval
commander Gen. Taleb al-Barri to provide the Russian fleet with a
long-term base at Syrian ports. Israel was not aware that this many
vessels were involved in the deal.
Syrian Tripwire For WWIII
Op Ed News - Lord Stirling
(September 19, 2008) - Russian Rear Admiral Andrei Baranov
has disclosed that 10 Russian warships are already anchored at the
Syrian port of Tartus. Russian engineering crews are widening and
dredging the port to accommodate additional Russian warships. The
Russians are making clear their intentions of using the large
Russian naval presence in Tartus as a deterrent to Israeli air
strikes against Syria using the powerful anti-air missiles on-board
the Russian naval warships. These missile systems can sweep the sky
over most of Syria and knock down Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighters.
This changes the balance of power in the air over Syria. This also
places a tripwire for World War III in place in the Middle East. Any
attack on Iran will also involve a war with Syria and Lebanon. This will
now involve Russian military forces in direct support of the
Iranian/Syrian alliance. Russia is a major nuclear power with the power
to destroy every American and NATO city. George Bush has just agreed to
sell Israel 1,000 very advanced American bunker buster bombs for use in
the coming war with Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Could these Russian warships
assist in getting men and materiel from the North through Lebanon
into the mountains of Israel? They certainly seem to be preparing
for plenty of Russian ships to be there for something. What Lord
Stirling calls WWIII, I believe will be cut short when God destroys
the attackers in the mountains of Israel. This doesn't mean that
elsewhere around the world there won't be issues. Remember that the
second seal is men killing each other and the
third is an apparent economic collapse. If you've just joined
the newsletter, you can see where I think this is leading
here
and
here. We could be seeing the unfolding of events that will lead
to Israel rebuilding the temple and the coming abomination of
desolation.
Bush Agrees to War on Iran
Op Ed News - Lord Stirling
(September 17, 2008) - The United States has agreed to sell
to Israel 1,000 of the very advanced bunker buster GBU-39 bombs. This is
a major development as the Bush Administration had denied previous
recent Israeli requests for large numbers of this weapon system. The
GBU-39 has a stand off range of 110 km and uses pop-out wings with
extremely accurate fire and forget technology. It is capable of
penetrating 90 cm of steel reinforced concrete. This indicates that the
Israeli Government has succeeded in its request that America allow it to
attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The GBU-39s will be used extensively
in attacks on Iranian targets, as well as on Syrian and Hezbollah high
value targets in both Syria and Lebanon.
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Putin's Unholy Land Grab: Red Square In Jerusalem
The Jewish Press
(September 3, 2008) - Last month it
took two tank divisions and a diversion of Olympian proportions for
Vladimir Putin to subdue Georgia's fledgling democracy and seize two
of its territorial regions. This month we may see Russia's new
emperor claiming a prime slice of downtown Jerusalem for the KGB
without even firing a shot.
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Islam
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Dividing the Land
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Gog/Magog
| Thanks Geno, for forwarding the
story to me. It seems to me that while Israel is dwelling in the
land, everyone around her wants it for themselves. This is one of
the primary reasons I'm not worried about an Iranian nuclear missile
strike on Israel. Could it happen? I suppose, but according to Bible
prophecy Israel is the center of what is going to happen and it
seems that everyone wants to take it for themselves as a spoil, not
totally destroy it for everyone. And we know, at least in the case
of Jerusalem, that the man of sin will declare himself to be God
there and the city will be taken over by his followers. So while a
nuclear Iran is all the buzz in much of the news, my concern is more
for other enemies of Iran than Israel, and regarding the nuclear
issue I know what side Russia is on and they have plenty as well as
other nations that I'm sure have given Iran what it needs under the
table. Whatever happens, don't fear - these things must come to pass
and in the end God will be glorified in it. Ezekiel 38:10-16
Syria-Russia naval cooperation grows
YNet News
(September
12, 2008) - Russia announced Friday it was renovating a Syrian
port for use by the Russian fleet in what could signal an effort for a
better foothold in the Mediterranean amid the rift with the United
States over Georgia. Syria was Moscow's strongest Mideast ally during
the Cold War. The alliance largely waned after the 1991 fall of the
Soviet Union, though Russia has continued some weapons sales to
Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad has increasingly reached out to
Russia recently, including Seeking weapons and offering broader military
cooperation. Friday's announcement was the first tangible sign of any
new cooperation. The Itar-Tass news agency said Friday that a vessel
from Russia's Black Sea fleet had begun restoring facilities at Syria's
Mediterranean port of Tartus for use by the Russian military. The two
countries' naval chiefs also met in Moscow on Friday and discussed
"further strengthening mutual trust and mutual understanding between the
two states' fleets," A Russian naval official, Igor Dygalo, told
Itar-Tass. The Tartus renovations could signal an intention to have a
long-term Russian naval presence there. In late August, Russia's
ambassador to Damascus, Igor Belyev, said that Russian ships already
patrol the area, but "a new development is that the Russian presence in
the Mediterranean will become permanent." Syrian media made no mention
of the Russian announcement Friday, and Syrian officials could not be
reached for comment. Russian military experts said Tartus would be a
considerable boost for operations in the Mediterranean. "It is much more
advantageous to have such a facility than to return ships patrolling the
Mediterranean to their home bases," Former Black Sea Fleet commander
Adm. Eduard Baltin said, according to the Russian Interfax-AVN service.
The former first deputy commander the Russian Navy, Adm. Igor Kasatonov,
said Tartus "is of great geopolitical significance considering that it
is the only such Russian facility abroad."
Nasrallah: No peace in Middle East as long as Israel exists
Haaretz
(September
11, 2008) - The Hezbollah leader went on to say that his
Lebanon-based guerilla group is stronger than ever and is prepared for
its next confrontation with Israel. "Any Israeli attack on Lebanon,
Iran, Syria or Gaza will be met with a fierce response," Nasrallah said.
He added that Hezbollah has grown logistically and militarily stronger,
claiming that all of Lebanon has united against a common enemy - Israel.
One subject Nasrallah did not broach in the interview is the
assassination last February of the group's second-in-command, Imad
Mughniyeh. Nasrallah did not discuss how or when his group would avenge
the killing. Recent Israeli intelligence reports, however, have
suggested that Hezbollah is planning to abduct Israelis abroad as
revenge for Mughniyeh's assassination.
Russia proposes closer ties with OPEC
AFP
(September
9, 2008) - Russian Vice Premier Igor Sechin reached out to OPEC
late Tuesday, calling for greater cooperation between the cartel and his
country in a move linked by some analysts to the Georgia-Russia
conflict. Sechin, who is chairman of Russia's biggest Russian oil group
Rosneft, said a "draft memorandum of understanding" had been submitted
to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries on closer
cooperation between Russia and the group. "Cooperation with OPEC is one
of the priorities of Russia," he said, according to a statement read out
at the opening of a meeting of OPEC's 13 members here. He underscored
that OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia and Russia were the largest oil
producers in the world -- they are number one and two measured by output
-- and referred to the "ambitious potential" of cooperation with the
cartel. The timing of the visit to OPEC by such a senior Russian
official is likely to raise eyebrows in consumer nations as relations
between Moscow and the West deteriorate in the aftermath of the
Russia-Georgia conflict in August. Any closer cooperation would vastly
increase the market power of OPEC, which already pumps 40 percent of
world oil, and would cause worries about the collective influence of the
world's dominant oil producers. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown
warned at the end of August that the West would not be held to ransom by
hydrocarbon-rich Russia and urged Europe to find alternative sources of
power to avoid "an energy stranglehold." Independent analyst John Hall,
who runs an energy consultancy in London, said the move by Russia could
be seen as part of a strategy by Moscow to find political allies after
its military action in Georgia. "Russia is under pressure at from the US
and European Union and is looking for allies around the world and it
would strengthen its position to have an alignment with OPEC," he told
AFP. Russia already has close ties with OPEC members Iran and Venezuela,
who are also at odds with the United States. It has also lent support to
the idea of a "gas OPEC", causing alarm in the European Union. David
Kirsch, head of the market intelligence service at US-based energy
consultancy PFC Energy, said Sechin's appearance was highly significant.
"Sending Sechin here sends a strong signal about cooperation between
OPEC and Russia," he said. "The statement is clear that Russia has its
legitimate interests and will pursue them in energy markets." Sechin
said part of the cooperation with OPEC would include providing for a
"stable pricing environment" for producers and consumers. more...
Syria warns of 'catastrophic' effect of any Israeli strike on Iran
Breitbart.com
(September
2, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned Tuesday that
an attack by Israel on Iran would have catastrophic consequences for the
entire world. "We think that Israel could try to launch attacks against
Iran, even against Lebanon or Syria," he said in an interview with
France 3 television. "Any attack by Israel or by anyone else will have
catastrophic results not only on the region but on the whole world," he
said. In recent months several Israeli politicians have talked of the
possibility of a preemptive military strike against Iranian nuclear
facilities to avoid any possibility of Tehran acquiring an atomic
weapon. Iran has responded by threatening retaliatory strikes with its
Shahab-3 missiles which have a nominal range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250
miles) -- enough to reach Israel.
Israeli-Syrian peace talks postponed
The Jerusalem Post
(September
1, 2008) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy is scheduled to visit
Damascus on Wednesday, a trip Israel had an indirect role in making
possible because of its indirect talks with Syria, at a time when -
ironically - the Israel-Syria track seems frozen. Turkish sources said
Monday that there was no new date scheduled for the fifth round of
indirect talks in Turkey between Syrian and Israeli negotiating teams, a
round that was originally scheduled for last week, then postponed until
this week, and now tentatively set for next week. Turkish sources told
The Jerusalem Post last week that it was likely that the talks would be
postponed until after Sarkozy's two-day trip to Damascus. The Syrians
have expressed interest in US and French co-sponsorship of the talks,
something which Sarkozy would like to see. In a speech to French
ambassadors last week, Sarkozy said it was because Syria knew that
France had excellent relations with Israel and the US that "Damascus
wanted France to shoulder this unprecedented responsibility in due
time." He said this would be discussed during his visit. The US,
meanwhile, has shown no interest in involvement. Sarkozy's visit will be
the first by a French leader to Damascus since former president Jacques
Chirac cut ties with Syria following the assassination in February 2005
of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, a close friend of
Chirac. Diplomatic officials have said that Israel's decision to hold
indirect talks with Syria gave a certain degree of "diplomatic cover"
for Sarkozy to make overtures to Assad, with the argument being that if
it was okay for Jerusalem to talk with the Syrians, then it was also
okay for France. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also
scheduled to visit Damascus this week, expected to visit there on
Thursday, the day that Sarkozy leaves. This has led to speculation that
Erdogan wants to ensure that Turkey maintains its central role in the
Israel-Syria talks. Turkish sources, however, said that the hastily
scheduled Erdogan visit was likely connected more to the
Russian-Georgian crisis, than to the Israeli-Syrian track. Turkey's
decision to allow US warships through the Bosporus Straits to the Black
Sea was slammed by Russia, and Moscow's displeasure was translated into
long delays for Turkish exporters at the Russian border. Turkey hit back
Monday, subjecting Russian imports into Turkey to additional searches.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to arrive in
Istanbul on Tuesday for a meeting that will focus on the rising
tensions, and Erdogan's visit to Damascus - which is supporting Russia
in its conflict with Georgia - is expected to focus on that issue.
more...
Solana: EU plans civilian mission in Georgia
Xinhuanet (September
1, 2008) - The European Union (EU) is planning to deploy a
civilian mission in Georgia to help monitor the ceasefire, EU top
diplomat Javier Solana said on Monday. "I hope very much that by the
next (summit) on the 15th of October, we will have all the decisions
finalized" for the mission, he told reporters before a special EU summit
on Georgia. A fact-finding mission of about 40 people are currently on
the ground, Solana said. "We would like to have a new mission deployed
soon" across areas controlled by Georgian troops to see that a
France-brokered ceasefire agreement was properly implemented after the
Georgia-Russia conflict over South Ossetia, he added. "It will be a
mission in the hundreds, not a huge one," Solana said, adding that the
Monday summit and an informal meeting of foreign ministers later this
week will discuss the civilian mission and a plan to send peacekeepers.
Georgia would expect the EU peacekeepers to replace Russian troops in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where Russian peacekeepers have been present
since an outbreak of violence in the early 1990s. However, the EU can
not deploy military peacekeepers in the regions without a UN Security
Council resolution. Russia, which has a veto power in the Council, has
rejected such a notion. Last week, Moscow recognized the independence of
the two breakaway Georgian regions, a move that has drawn strong
condemnation from the West. Solana said he would soon go to Moscow and
Tbilisi, capital of Georgia, to see how the EU could help settle the
crisis.
Hizbullah-Iran-Syria-Lebanon Axis Tightens
Israel National News
(August 24, 2008) - Hizbullah leader Hassan
Nasrallah warned Sunday his terrorist army is much stronger than before
the Second Lebanon War and can destroy Israel. He issued the threat at a
Boy Scout ceremony as a response to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's remark
last week that "if Lebanon becomes a Hizbullah state, then we won't have
any restrictions" in striking the country. The Prime Minister claimed
that during the last war, Israel did not use all of its firepower
because the enemy was Hizbullah and not its host country Lebanon.
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has sent United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon a letter protesting Olmert's remarks.
Siniora, at a meeting with his Cabinet, accused Israel of "once again…
threatening to launch a new attack on Lebanon, forgetting that the
[Israeli] occupation was the core of the problem for Lebanon and the
region." The flurry of threats and warnings came two days after a report
in the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera that three Hizbullah
leaders visited Russia in July to clinch a deal involving the purchase
of anti-tank missiles and air-defense systems. Israel disclosed evidence
during the Second Lebanon War that Hizbullah used advanced Russian
anti-tank missiles smuggled from Syria, in violation of previous
international agreements. Nasrallah said, in a speech televised by the
Hizbullah-backed Al Manar satellite network, that his arsenal of weapons
is so great that "the Zionists will think not one thousand times but
tens of thousands of times before they attack Lebanon." The prospect of
an Israeli attack on Iran's growing nuclear threat also played a hand in
Hizbullah's latest threats. Mohammed Raad, the head of the terrorist
party's political bloc in the Lebanese government, warned, "The first
shot fired from the Zionist entity toward Iran will be met by a response
of 11,000 rockets in the direction of the Zionist entity. This is what
military leaders in the Islamic Republic [Iran] have confirmed."
Hizbullah has become a stronger political force in Lebanon since the end
of the war two summers ago, winning enough representation in the Cabinet
to veto any major decisions. Syria, which aided Hizbullah in the
Second Lebanon War, last week established diplomatic relations with
Lebanon for the first time in history, providing Syrian President Bashar
Assad with a stronger political base in Beirut's affairs after having
withdrawn its military from Lebanon before the 2006 war. Syria has
dominated Lebanese affairs for 30 years, and the West has joined
Lebanese opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs in
accusing Damascus of being behind the the 2005 assassination of
anti-Syrian former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The new Lebanese
government that gives Hizbullah more power assures Syria that it still
can influence affairs in Lebanon, with the naming of Michel Suleiman as
president. He is close to Syria and was the Lebanese army chief for 10
years during the Syrian army's control of the country. "It's a win-win
situation," said Patrick Seale, a British expert on Syria told the
Associated Press. "The Lebanese get diplomatic recognition and the
Syrians get recognition of vital interests in Lebanon."
South Ossetia: Russia Intends to Absorb Georgian Region
Fox News
(August
29, 2008) - Officials in South Ossetia said Friday that Russia
intends eventually to absorb the breakaway Georgian province. Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev and the region's leader, Eduard Kokoity,
discussed South Ossetia's future earlier this week in Moscow, South
Ossetian parliamentary speaker Znaur Gassiyev said. Russia will absorb
South Ossetia "in several years" or earlier, a position that was "firmly
stated by both leaders," Gassiyev said. A Kremlin spokeswoman said she
had no such information and declined immediate comment. Moscow has
recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a second separatist region of
Georgia, as independent, drawing criticism from the West. Russia found
itself unable to shore up its own international support when China and
four former Soviet republics in Central Asia refused a Moscow appeal to
recognize the territories. Russia accuses Georgia of starting the
five-day war between the two countries earlier this month by attacking
South Ossetia on Aug. 7. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says the
U.S. instigated the fighting by encouraging Georgia to use force to rein
in the separatist region. Gassiyev's deputy, Tarzan Kokoiti, said South
Ossetia has the right to reunite with North Ossetia, which is part of
Russia. "We will live in one united Russian state," he said.
Will Turkey Abandon NATO? Wall
Street Journal
(August
29, 2008) - Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO
ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist
Georgia? Or will it choose Russia? A Turkish refusal would seriously
impair American efforts to support the beleaguered Caucasus republic.
Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to
make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the
North. Yet that is precisely the decision before Ankara. If Turkey does
not allow the ships through, it will essentially be taking Russia's
side. Whether in government or in the military, Turkish officials have
for several years been expressing concern about U.S. intentions to
"enter" the Black Sea. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Black Sea
remained peaceful due to the fact that Turkey and Russia had clearly
defined spheres of influence. But littoral countries Romania and
Bulgaria have since joined NATO, and Ukraine and Georgia have drawn
closer to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Ankara has expressed nervousness
about a potential Russian reaction. The Turkish mantra goes something
like this: "the U.S. wants to expand NATO into the Black Sea -- and as
in Iraq, this will create a mess in our neighborhood, leaving us to deal
with the consequences once America eventually pulls out. After all, if
Russia is agitated, it won't be the Americans that will have to deal
with them." Nonetheless, Ankara sided with fellow NATO members in
telling Georgia and Ukraine that they would be invited to join the
alliance -- albeit without any time frame. But now that Russia has waged
war in part over this decision, the Turks will have to pick sides.
Deputy chief of the Russian general staff Anatoly Nogoivtsyn already
warned Turkey that Russia will hold Turkey responsible if the U.S. ships
do not leave the Black Sea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel
to Ankara on Monday to make clear that Russia means it. Russia is
Turkey's largest trading partner, mostly because of Turkey's dependence
on Russian gas. More important, the two countries share what some call
the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former
provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to
recreate old agreements on spheres of influence. When Mr. Putin gave a
speech in Munich last year challenging the U.S.-led world order, Turks
cheered. The Turkish military even posted it on its Web site. President
Abdullah Gül recently suggested that "a new world order should emerge."
Turkey joined Russia at the height of its war on Georgia in suggesting a
five-party "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." In other
words, they want to keep the U.S. and the EU at arm's length. Both
Russia and Turkey consider Georgia's American-educated president,
Mikheil Saakashvili, to be crazy enough to unleash the next world war.
In that view Turkey is not so far from the positions of France or
Germany -- but even these two countries did not suggest that the
Georgians sign up to a new regional arrangement co-chaired by Russia
while the Kremlin's air force was bombing Georgian cities. Two other
neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- are watching the Turkish-Russian
partnership with concern. Azeris remember how the Turks -- their ethnic
and religious brethren -- left them to be annexed by the Soviets in the
1920s. Armenians already fear their giant neighbor, who they consider to
have committed genocide against them. Neither wants to have to rely on
Iran (once again) as a counterbalance to Russia. Oh, and of course, Iran
had its own sphere-of-influence arrangements with the Soviets as well.
Though Turkey and Iran are historic competitors, Turkey has broken
with NATO countries recently by hosting President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on
a working visit. As the rest of NATO was preoccupied with the Russian
aggression in Georgia, Turkey legitimized the Iranian leader amidst
chants in Istanbul of "death to Israel, death to America." A few days
later, Turkey played host to Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, who is accused of
genocide by the rest of NATO -- but not by Russia or Iran, or by the
Muslim-majority countries who usually claim to care so much about Muslim
lives. Where is Turkey headed? Turkish officials say they are
using their trust-based relations with various sides to act as a
mediator between various parties in the region: the U.S. and Iran;
Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan, etc. It may be so. But as
more American ships steam toward the Black Sea, a time for choosing has
arrived. How would they react if
Damascus were destroyed?
Russian Navy planning greater presence in Syria
Boston.com
(August
28, 2008) - The Russian Navy will make more use of Syrian ports
as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian
diplomat said yesterday. The announcement comes as tensions rise between
Moscow and the West over Russia's role in Georgia. President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria backed Russia's recent offensive on Georgia in support
of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week. "Our navy
presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be
visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently," Igor Belyaev,
the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.
"The visits are continuing," he added. Russia relies on Syria's Tartous
port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties
between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism,
when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.
Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including
the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this
month. Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military
agreements with Syria were reached during Assad's meeting with President
Dmitry Medvedev of Russia today. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as
this does not disturb the "regional balance of power." Lavrov was
referring to the position of Israel, which has a superior military and
is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Syria, which is
technically at war with the Jewish state, has embarked on a drive to
upgrade its military in recent years. And why might Israel feel
threatened by Syria enough to take action against Damascus? This
buildup of military in the North of Israel might also explain a
quick retaliation too. Russia just showed her military might in
Georgia just North of Turkey, what if Turkey joined in a retaliation
with Iran, who has been openly expressing the desire to wipe Israel
off the map? Keep watching.
Iran's
Ahmadinejad, Russia's Medvedev to hold talks
Tehran Times
(August
25, 2008) - Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad will hold talks
with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Dushanbe which begins on
Thursday. Ahmadinejad and Medvedev will talk about strengthening
relations between the two countries and discuss regional and
international issues, the Fars News Agency reported. This is the first
time that two presidents meet each other. The SCO’s eighth conference
will be held on August 28 and 29. It will be attended by the presidents
of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as
its permanent members, the heads of state from Iran, India, Mongolia
plus Pakistani foreign minister as observers, and the leaders of
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan as guests. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental international organization
founded in Shanghai on 15 June 2001 by six countries, China, Russia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member states
cover an area of about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of
1.455 billion. Its working languages are Chinese and Russian. The
organization’s main objectives include strengthening confidence among
the members, increasing political, scientific, cultural, and educational
as well as energy, transportation, tourism cooperation between the
member states.
Explosion severs Azerbaijan-Georgia-Europe fuel railway link
DEBKAfile
(August
24, 2008) - The train hit a mine Sunday, Aug. 24 at the village
of Skra, 5 km west of Gori, on the main track of the railway line
linking Eastern and Western Georgia – a vital trade route for oil
exports from Azerbaijan to European markets. Responsibility for the
sabotage has not been determined. The blast deals a serious blow to
Georgia’s efforts to recover from its ten-day war over South Ossetia in
the face of the continuing Russian military presence. Georgian officials
suggested Russian forces which pulled out of the area two days ago left
a road mine on the railroad. Azerbaijan restored its oil consignments
via Georgia only two days ago; their interruption during the fighting
robbed the Saakasvhili government of valuable revenue, which the attack
has suspended again. In another development Sunday, the guided missile
destroyer USS McFaul docked at the Georgian port of Batumi carrying
supplies such as blankets, hygiene kits and baby food. Two more US ships
are due to dock later this week. The American vessels were supposed
originally to put in at the Black Sea port of Poti, 80 km to the north,
but changed direction to avoid meeting Russian troops who are fortifying
their positions at Poti further up the coast. Russia says it entitled to
keep its forces in a buffer zone around the breakaway territories of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, citing the truce and other international
agreements as covering unspecified “additional security measures,” over
and above their pre-conflict positions. French President Nicolas
Sarkozy, Moscow claims, approved the buffer zones which they organized
before the ceasefire was signed (as revealed by DEBKAfile on Aug. 17)
Russia acknowledges that Poti is outside the ceasefire’s terms and its
peacekeeping mandate. Saturday, the Russian missile cruiser Moskva
returned to its base in Ukraine. DEBKAfile reported on Aug. 20 from
official Russian sources that the warship was part of a large flotilla
heading for the Mediterranean port of Tartus in Syria. The defense
ministry in Moscow later detached the Moskva from the contingent and
sent it back to the Black Sea.
US
concedes Kremlin’s first military response in Georgia was “legitimate”
DEBKAfile
(August
22, 2008) - The US ambassador to Moscow, endorsing Russia's
initial moves in Georgia, described the Kremlin's first military
response as legitimate after Russian troops came under attack. This was
the first positive statement by an American official about Moscow’s
first response to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, after a string
of condemnations from the heads of the Bush administration. It came from
US ambassador John Beyrle, who arrived in Moscow last month, in an
interview published by the Russian daily Kommersant Friday, Aug. 22.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly disclosed Friday in its lead article that Washington
and Moscow are working quietly and intensively to set up a summit
between President George W. Bush and Russian prime minister Vladimir
Putin to bring crisis-ridden US-Russian relations back on an even keel.
(Both Powers Push for a Bush-Putin Summit.) Ambassador Beyrle’s words
were the first public departure by a US official from the critical
remarks of Moscow’s conduct heard uniformly from Bush, Condoleezza Rice
and Robert Gates. The ambassador said Washington had not sanctioned
Georgia’s initial actions when on Aug. 8, after a succession of tense
skirmishes, Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia, triggering a massive
Russian reaction when its peacekeepers came under fire. “We did not want
to see a recourse to violence and force and we made that very, very
clear,” said Beyrle. “The fact that we were trying to convince the
Georgian side not to take this step is clear evidence that we did not
want all this to happen,” he said. DEBKAfile: This was the first US
admission that Georgia was the aggressor in South Ossetia and showed
cracks in their hitherto solid support for president Mikhail
Saakashvili. Beyrle said Washington still supports Russia's bid to join
the World Trade Organization – an official departure from implied
American threats to punish Moscow by international isolation. The US
ambassador’s interview was run in the same Russian paper which quoted
Syrian president Bashar Assad on Wednesday, as announcing he was willing
to accept Russian missile bases in his country. Beyrle’s words look like
a bid to halt the deterioration in Russo-American relations before they
veer out of control in a second global arena. In another telling remark,
the US ambassador said: “We have seen the destruction of civilian
infrastructure, as well as calls by some Russian politicians to change
the democratically-elected government of Georgia. That is why we believe
that Russia has gone too far.” The subtext here, say DEBKAfile’s
sources, is that if Moscow continues to pull troops out of Georgia and
does not threaten the country’s integrity and regime, Russian and US
leaders can do business.
NATO Says Russia Has Cut All Military Ties With Western Alliance
Fox News
(August 21, 2008) - Russia has halted all
military cooperation with NATO, the Western alliance said Thursday, in
the latest sign of East-West tension over the invasion of Georgia. NATO
spokeswoman Carmen Romero said the alliance had received notification
through military channels that Russia's Defense Ministry had taken a
decision "to halt international military cooperation events between
Russia and NATO countries until further instructions." She said NATO
"takes note" of the decision, but had no further reaction. On Tuesday,
NATO foreign ministers said they would make further ties with Russia
dependent on Moscow making good on a pledge to pull its troops back to
pre-conflict positions in Georgia. However, they stopped short of
calling an immediate halt to all cooperation. Under a 2002 agreement
that set up the NATO-Russia Council, the former Cold War foes began
several cooperation projects. They include sharing expertise to combat
heroin trafficking out of Afghanistan, developing battlefield
anti-missile technology, joint exercises and help with rescue at sea.
Romero said she was unaware of any specific events under the cooperation
agreement scheduled before early September. NATO itself decided last
week to suspend plans for a Russian warship to join NATO
counterterrorism patrols in the Mediterranean Sea, deciding it was
inappropriate in the wake of the eruption of fighting in Georgia.
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance
with Russia Times Online
(August 21, 2008) - Syria raised the
prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking
fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he
arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are
ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its
security.” The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia
really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself
closed in a circle.” Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the
deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also
interested in buying Russian weapons. In return Moscow is expected to
propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of
Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the
Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies
during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised
the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western
alliance with former Soviet bloc allies. Many in Israel fear that the
Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers
to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And
with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia
appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria. Already, Israeli
observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies
to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater
energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn
allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use
Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed
Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the
Middle East and increase arms sales. Syria and Israel recently confirmed
they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades
of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international
isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A
closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out
of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could
encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by
Israel in 1967, by force. The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech
with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader,
over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the
Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal
Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with
Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards. “Gal
Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost
because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts
and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed. “What
happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking
to entangle in dangerous adventures.” What are the chances of this
Syrian-Russian alliance and fear in Israel that the growing
instability for their nation because of the energy crisis and
threats against her could lead to a pre-emptive attack on Damascus?
And what are the chances that Russia and Iran would retaliate?
Considering Turkey's recent attempts to reconcile Syria and Israel,
would they consider Israel's action against Damascus worth declaring
war against her with Russia and Turkey as prophesied? Keep watching.
Russia sends aircraft carrier to Syria
Barents Observer
(August 20, 2008) - The Russian aircraft
carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the
Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after
Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the
area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s
only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission
will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines,
Newsru.com reports. President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week
expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia.
He also expressed interest in the establishment of Russian missile air
defence facilities on his land. The “Admiral Kuznetsov” also last year
headed a navy mission to the Mediterranean. Then, on the way from the
Kola Peninsula and south, it stopped in the North Sea where it conducted
a navy training exercise in the immediate vicinity of Norwegian offshore
installations.
Norway: Russia to cut all military ties with NATO
Associated Press
(August 20, 2008) - Russia has informed
Norway that it plans to suspend all military ties with NATO, Norway's
Defense Ministry said Wednesday, a day after the military alliance urged
Moscow to withdraw its forces from Georgia. NATO foreign ministers said
Tuesday they would make further ties with Russia dependent on Moscow
making good on a pledge to pull its troops back to pre-conflict
positions in Georgia. However, they stopped short of calling an
immediate halt to all cooperation. The Nordic country's embassy in
Moscow received a telephone call from "a well-placed official in the
Russian Ministry of Defense," who said Moscow plans "to freeze all
military cooperation with NATO and allied countries," Espen Barth Eide,
state secretary with the Norwegian ministry said. Eide told The
Associated Press that the Russian official notified Norway it will
receive a written note about this soon. He said Norwegian diplomats in
Moscow would meet Russian officials on Thursday morning to clarify the
implications of the freeze. "It is our understanding that other NATO
countries will receive similar notes," Eide said. The ministry said the
Russian official is known to the embassy, but Norway declined to provide
a name or any further identifying information. A Kremlin official
declined to comment on the report, and the Russian ambassador to NATO
did not reply to messages left on his cell phone. But the Interfax news
agency, citing what it called a military-diplomatic source in Moscow
whom it did not identify, reported that Russia is reviewing its 2008
military cooperation plans with NATO. Officials at NATO headquarters in
Brussels said Moscow had not informed the alliance it was taking such a
step. Washington described the reported move as unfortunate. more...
As US Looks to Improve Ties, Libya Positions Itself in Russia’s Corner
CNS News
(August 19, 2008) - At a time when the U.S.
is moving towards full normalization of relations with Libya, Muammar
Gaddafi’s son has made it clear that the North African nation is looking
to Russia as its strategic partner. In a little-noticed interview with
Russia’s Kommersant business daily, Seif al-Islam Gaddafi said Moscow’s
resurgence, demonstrated by this month’s military incursion into
Georgia, was a positive development for the Arab world. “What happened
in Georgia is a good sign, which means America is no longer the sole
world power setting the rules of the game,” Gaddafi said. “Now there is
balance in the world. Russia is being reborn, and we value that. It is
very good for us, for all of the Middle East,” he said. Gaddafi, who
runs a charity called the Gaddafi Foundation, has frequently undertaken
diplomatic missions on behalf of his father. The second oldest of seven
sons, the 35-year-old is sometimes named as a possible successor to the
unpredictable Libyan leader but has denied ambitions to rule the north
African country – a position he reiterated in the Kommersant interview.
The published interview appeared on the same day that the U.S.
government announced a breakthrough agreement with Libya on compensation
for terror victims, paving the way for the full normalization of
bilateral ties. Asked whether his strong statements were not risking
Libya’s newly-improved ties with the U.S., Gaddafi told the Russian
paper that although his country has good relations with both the West
and Russia, “Libya chose Russia as its strategic partner.” “Of course,
Russia is our strategic partner, and we cannot compare it with any other
country for closeness. That’s obvious.” Gaddafi said Libya backed
Moscow’s position that Georgia had initiated the recent conflict – by
mounting an offensive against separatists in a Russian-backed breakaway
province – and forced a Russian military response. Libya would back
Russia in the U.N. Security Council, he said. Libya, which has been
improving relations with the West since pledging to stop supporting
terrorism and shutting down its non-conventional weapons programs, in
January began a two-year stint on the council. Its conduct there has at
times drawn strong criticism. more...
Report warns of global fallout from invasion of Georgia, faults U.S.
intelligence World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's invasion of
Georgia demonstrated Moscow's growing power and is making waves in the
Middle East, a report by a leading U.S. analyst said. The report by the
Institute for Contemporary Affairs asserted that Iran would be
emboldened by Moscow's successful military campaign. "The long-term
outcomes of the current Russian-Georgian war will be felt far and wide,
from Afghanistan to Iran, and from the Caspian to the Mediterranean,"
the report, titled "The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the
Middle East," said. "The war is a mid-sized earthquake which indicates
that the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and nations in
the Middle East, including Israel, need to take notice." Authored by
Ariel Cohen, the report said Russia's strategic goals included
increasing control of energy pipelines to Turkey. Cohen also warned
Israel not to provoke Moscow or rely on U.S. support against Iran,
Middle East Newsline reported. "U.S. expressions of support of
the kind provided to Georgia — short of an explicit mutual defense pact
— may or may not result in military assistance if/when Israel is under
attack, especially when the attacker has an effective deterrent, such as
nuclear arms deliverable against U.S. targets," the report said. "In
the future, such an attacker could be Iran or an Arab country armed with
atomic weapons. Israel can and should rely on its own deterrent — a
massive survivable second-strike capability." The report criticized
the U.S. intelligence community, which failed to detect Russian
efforts to annex Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Cohen, who
warned that Ukraine was Moscow's next target, said the Bush
administration did not prepare the Georgian military for a Russian
attack. "This is something to remember when looking at recent American
intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the
unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against
Hamas," Cohen said. Cohen said a pro-Russian regime in Georgia would
result in Moscow's full control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
and the Baku-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, both of which reach Turkey.
Israel has been receiving some of its oil from Ceyhan and has a "stake
in the smooth flow of oil from the Caspian." The report said Russia
financed and armed the Russian ethnic community in Georgia to foment
unrest. Cohen compared this to Iran's use of proxies to attack Israel
from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. "This use of small, ethnically-based
proxies is similar to Iran's use of Hizbullah and Hamas to continuously
attack Israel," the report said. "Tbilisi tried for years to deal
with these militias by offering a negotiated solution, including full
autonomy within Georgia." Cohen, a senior researcher at the
Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said Russia plans to extend its
influence throughout the Middle East. He cited Russian Navy bases in the
Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartous and plans to establish a presence in
Libya. "Clearly, with the renewal of East-West tensions as a result of
Russia's moves against Georgia, it will be much more difficult to obtain
Moscow's agreement to enhance sanctions and international pressures on
Iran," the report said. "The struggle to diplomatically halt its
[Iran's] nuclear program will become far more difficult." This article really touches on
several of the aspects of the sequence of events I believe will
unfold according to Bible prophecy. The intelligence community
failed to detect Russia's intentions/actions until they were
unfolding and the "global community" didn't do anything but condemn
the use of force, which sends a signal that Russia and others can
get away with actions like this. Furthermore, Israel is told they
would pretty much be on their own. Then it also says Israel should
rely on its own deterrent, a massive second-strike capability. Is it
too far-fetched to believe that Israel could make a pre-emptive
strike given the very vocal intentions to run Israel into the sea?
Top Russian general names Israel as Georgian arms supplier
The Jerusalem Post
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's deputy army
chief, Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, accused Israel on Tuesday of arming
the Georgian military with mines, explosive charges, special explosives
for clearing minefields and eight kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles. "In
2007, Israeli experts trained Georgian commandos in Georgia and there
were plans to supply heavy weaponry, electronic weapons, tanks and other
arms at a later date, but the deal didn't work out," Nogovitsyn told a
Moscow press conference. Nogovitsyn also said that the Russian soldiers
had detained 20 mercenaries near the Georgian city of Poti, including
three Arabs, all wearing Georgian army uniforms. Nogovitsyn also said
that Israeli troops in 2007 had trained Georgian commando troops. He
added that Russia had begun pulling its troops out of Georgia on Monday,
in accordance with the French-brokered ceasefire. Georgia's Deputy
Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said that Georgian corporals and sergeants
train with German alpine units, the navy work with French instructors
and special operations and urban warfare troops are taught by Israelis.
An Israeli defense official told The Jerusalem Post recently that Israel
had rejected frequent requests for arms from Georgia in the months
leading up to the outbreak of hostilities with Russia. "Several months
ago, we carried out an evaluation of the situation in Georgia and
realized that Georgia and Russia were on a collision course. We have
good relations with both, and don't want to back either in this
conflict," the official said. "We therefore made a decision to
drastically minimize sales of weapons to Georgia." Some of the Israeli
sales with Georgia in the past included night-vision equipment, rifles
and unmanned drones for gathering intelligence. Israel did not agree,
however, to upgrade the drones to those that possess high
intelligence-gathering capabilities, the defense officials said.
Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who
is fluent in Hebrew, and is said to have contributed to military
cooperation.
Lisbon treaty would have helped in Georgia crisis, says France
EU Observer
(August 18, 2008) - French president
Nicolas Sarkozy has used the ongoing crisis between Russia and Georgia
to put the case for the EU's new treaty, currently facing ratification
difficulties. In an opinion piece in Monday's edition of French daily Le
Figaro, Mr. Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU's six month presidency,
wrote that the Lisbon Treaty would have given the bloc the tools it
needed to handle the Moscow-Tbilisi war. "It is notable that had the
Lisbon Treaty, which is in the process of being ratified, already been
in force, the European Union would have had the institutions it needs to
cope with international crises." He named the most important innovations
as being the "stable" European Council President - instead of the
current half-yearly system - " a High Representative endowed with a real
European diplomatic service and considerable financial means in order to
put decisions into force in coordination with member states. " The short
pitch for the Lisbon Treaty also revealed a little how the French
president views the role of the EU's first long-term president of the EU
- a post that can be held for up to five years. The treaty itself is
ambiguous about the president's exact role with the potential for
conflict rife with member states and EU officials divided about whether
the position should be ceremonial or have real teeth. Entwined in this
question is how much the president should represent the EU in external
policy, a policy area that is foreseen for the EU's foreign policy
chief. In the Figaro article, Mr. Sarkozy suggests that the president's
position in such crises as the Russia-Georgia one would be one of
"acting in close consultation with the heads of state and government
most affected." This would very much put the President in the foreign
policy field. It would also foresee a formal hierarchy among member
states as it would give priority to those considered most affected. This
kind of scenario has been predicted by some smaller member states who
fear that the president would have an all-powerful role, reducing the
say of certain governments, although the working principle of the bloc
is that member states are equal. But Mr. Sarkozy's words of support for
the Lisbon Treaty come amid doubt that it will ever come into force.
Although ratified by the vast majority of national parliaments, it was
rejected by Irish voters in a referendum in June. All member states need
to ratify the document for it to go into place. At the moment, Dublin is
considering its options. It could either put the treaty to another
referendum or try and figure out a legal contortion allowing it to use
parliamentary ratification only. But the January 2009 deadline by which
governments had hoped to have the treaty in place is certain to be
missed. I wonder if the unfolding of
the Magog invasion will be what spurs the acceptance of the Lisbon
Treaty in Europe out of fear of being unable to deal with situations
such as this. It certainly seems that it could end up working in
favor of the Lisbon Treaty and ultimately the center of power being
designed to run from Europe. Keep watching!
Russia: Poland risks attack due to U.S. missiles
MSNBC
(August 15, 2008) - A top Russian general
said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor
base exposed the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear
weapons, the Interfax news agency reported. The statement by Gen.
Anatoly Nogovitsyn was the strongest threat that Russia issued against
the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite
nations. Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for
Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the
United States said was aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations.
Moscow, however, felt it was aimed at Russia's missile force. "Poland,
by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,"
Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying. He added,
in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine
sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries
having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that
would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said,
according to Interfax. At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn
had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing
missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an
unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement
substantially stepped up a war of words. more...
Lebanon, Syria open diplomatic relations
The Jordanian Times
(August 15, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar
Assad and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman agreed on Wednesday to
establish diplomatic relations between their countries at ambassadorial
level, a Syrian official said. Damascus has been under pressure from the
United States and other governments including France to treat its
smaller neighbour more as a sovereign state by taking steps including
opening a Beirut embassy and demarcating borders with Lebanon. "The two
presidents... have instructed their foreign ministers to take the
necessary steps in this regard, starting from today," Buthaina Shaaban,
an adviser to President Assad said. Syria had dominated Lebanon until
the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri triggered
pressure for it to end a 29-year military presence in the country.
Sleiman, who had been army chief before his election, was received at a
hilltop palace overlooking Damascus. He was appointed head of Lebanon's
military when Syria still controlled the country and describes his ties
with Damascus as excellent. The two countries announced last month in
Paris that they intended to open diplomatic relations for the first time
since they gained independence in 1943. Wednesday's agreement formally
set those ties on the highest level. It was Sleiman's first visit to
Syria since his election in May as part of a Qatari-mediated deal that
defused a bitter political conflict between an anti-Syrian majority
coalition and an alliance of groups backed by Damascus. Syrian Foreign
Minister Walid Mouallem told Lebanon's As-Safir newspaper that Sleiman's
visit was "a starting point and a true foundation for future relations".
Syria's opponents in Lebanon, including Saudi-backed politician Saad
Hariri, have accused Damascus of assassinating Rafiq Hariri and other
anti-Syrian figures and fomenting instability since its withdrawal.
Syria denies the allegations. more...
Iran, Turkey fail to reach deal on new pipeline
Associated Press
(August 14, 2008) - Iran and Turkey signed
several cooperation agreements Thursday but failed to complete a deal
for building a new natural gas pipeline — a project the United States
has opposed. Washington argues an energy deal by NATO ally Turkey with
Iran would send the wrong message while the West threatens Tehran with
new economic sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. The
West believe Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran
denies. On Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish
President Abdullah Gul witnessed the public signing of a series of
agreements for cooperation in anti-drug efforts, environmental matters,
transportation, tourism and culture. The two nations also issued a joint
statement stressing their determination for further cooperation in
energy but they couldn't come to agreement on construction of the
proposed gas pipeline. "There are some snags," Turkey's interior
minister, Besir Atalay, said without providing any details. Turkish
Energy Minister Hilmi Guler said that "the negotiations will continue"
on the pipeline project, which is aimed at ensuring reliable supply of
Iranian natural gas to Turkey. Turkey already receives gas through an
existing pipeline from Iran, but its flow often is sporadic during the
winter. Relations between Turkey and Iran improved since Turkey's
Islamic-rooted governing party took power in 2002. Previous Turkish
governments had accused Iran of trying to export radical Islam to
secular Turkey, which hopes to join the European Union. The United
States also opposes plans for Turkish investment in Iran's South Pars
gas fields and the possibility of the Islamic Republic selling its gas
to European markets via an existing pipeline that carries gas to Europe
through Turkey.
Russian Tanks Head for Tbilisi, Georgia, Despite Ceasefire Pledge
Bridges for Peace
(August 13, 2008) - Hours after a European
Union ceasefire between Georgia and Russia appeared to be taking shape,
Russian tanks rolled into the Georgian city of Gori on August 13, later
pressing deeper as they headed towards the capital Tbilisi. To the west,
Abkhazian separatist forces backed by Russian forces pushed out Georgian
troops and even moved into Georgian territory itself, defiantly planting
a flag and laughing that retreating Georgians had received American
training in running away. The developments came less than 12 hours after
Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvilli said he accepted in principle a
cease-fire plan brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy who arrived
in the region and met with both Georgian and Russian leaders in an
effort to restore calm. On Tuesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
declared that Russia would halt all of its military activities in
Georgia. About 50 Russian tanks entered Gori on Wednesday morning,
according to a top Georgian official, Alexander Lomaia. The city of
50,000 sits on Georgia's only significant east-west road near the South
Ossetia border, a region where fierce fighting has taken place. Russia's
deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn insisted
Wednesday that no tanks were in Gori, adding that Russians went into the
city to try to implement the truce with local Georgian officials but
could not find any. The EU peace plan's concept of having both sides
retreat to their original positions was running into the stark reality
of Russian dominance on the battlefield.
Ahmadinejad in new Israel tirade before Turkey trip
Reuters
(August 13, 2008) - Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a fresh verbal attack on Israel on
Wednesday on the eve of a visit to Israel's close ally Turkey, saying
Western countries should not support the Jewish state. The comments
highlight the difficult path which Turkey, a member of NATO, must follow
during the two-day visit which reflects its desire to remain on good
terms with its neighbor and secure future energy needs. "Western
countries should not support them (Israel) so much. The life of this
regime has come to an end," Ahmadinejad said in comments translated into
Turkish in a live interview broadcast by Turkey's NTV and CNN Turk
channels. "Our position is clear on this issue. A referendum should take
place in Palestine. If they withdraw from invaded lands it would be a
good step," he said. Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister
Tayyip Erdogan have come under criticism at home and abroad for inviting
Ahmadinejad. Ankara has said his visit was necessary given a standoff
between Iran and the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear enrichment
program, but analysts said the visit was more about ensuring
centuries-old ties during a period of global tensions. Ahmadinejad said
the talks on Iran's nuclear program were on a "good path". I wonder just how close of an
ally Turkey is with Israel, outside of the mainstream's presentation
of their relationship. Considering what the Bible says, Turkey will
be part of the attack on Israel. The implication is that they are
brought with hooks in their jaws to the mountains of Israel. If my
understanding of the sequence of events from Bible prophecy is
accurate, could it be that Israel's attack of Damascus will be seen
by Turkey as a betrayal considering Turkey's public image of trying
to mediate a relationship between Israel and Syria? Would that be
enough to draw the primarily Muslim nation of Turkey against Israel
with Iran and Russia from the North through Lebanon? Keep watching.
'Syria and Hizbullah gaining strength'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 12, 2008) - Defense Minister Ehud
Barak said on Tuesday that "it is not a coincidence that the IDF is
holding intensive drills in the Golan Heights," adding that UNSC
Resolution 1701 was not accomplishing what it set out to do. "Hizbullah
has gained significant strength in the last couple of years," said Barak
during an IDF Armored Corps drill in the North. "We are closely
following a possible violation [of the resolution] caused by the
transfer of advanced weapons systems from Syria to Hizbullah. The
necessary preparations have been made, and regarding all the rest - I
always prefer not to talk, rather to take action when the time comes."
Barak expressed optimism with regards to the IDF's capabilities. "The
army is regaining its strength, and coming back to the right morals,
carrying out the right exercises and it is our obligation as the
government to ensure that the proper means are available to carry out
such drills in a correct and intensive manner." Referring to a proposed
budget cut to the Defense Ministry, Barak said: "We live in a country
where security and defense consist not just of tanks and planes, but
also of fostering excellence and caring for the population through
education and social welfare." Nonetheless, Barak emphasized that
"security and defense take precedence over quality of life and in a
country such as ours, we do not have the luxury of cutting the defense
budget." The defense minister also addressed the Gaza ceasefire and the
strengthening of the group. "So far, the ceasefire has proved
promising," he said. "There have been ten instances where rockets were
launched in the past 6 weeks, compared to the hundreds of attacks that
occurred in the past. Every week that passes with the ceasefire in place
enables us to gain strength and to maximize the possibility or the
probability of bringing about the right conditions for the release of
[captured IDF soldier] Gilad Schalit. Barak added that "in the meantime,
the government must care for the social and economic infrastructure as
well as the preparation of the home front in the Gaza periphery and the
surrounding areas. more...
Ex-communist states' backing for Georgia rooted in Soviet trauma
Breitbart.com
(August 12, 2008) - A traumatic history at
the hands of the Kremlin and enduring fears of Russia are the root of
the staunch backing for Georgia offered by Poland, the Baltic states and
Ukraine, analysts say. In an unusual step Tuesday the leaders of
ex-communist Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine went to
Georgia for what they called a called a show of support for the former
Soviet republic after Russia's assault. "Our visit is a sign of the
solidarity of our five countries with the Georgian nation, which has
been a victim of aggression," Poland's President Lech Kaczynski told
reporters. "Once again, Russia has shown its true face," he said. On
Saturday, Poland and the Baltic states had as "former captive nations"
of the Soviet Union issued a joint statement calling on the EU and NATO
to oppose Russia's "imperialist" policy towards Georgia. Fear of Russia
cuts deep, said Bartosz Cichocki, an expert at the Polish Institute for
International Affairs. "These nations still remember how in 1939 the
Soviet army crossed into their territory to purportedly defend the
rights of ethnic minorities," he said, referring to the invasion at the
start of World War II, when Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union sealed a
pact to carve up Poland and the Baltic states. "And they still remember
their dependence on Moscow," which lasted five decades, he told AFP.
Poland, which broke free from Moscow's orbit in 1989, and the Baltic
states, which like Georgia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union
until it collapsed 1991, are all firm supporters of Tbilisi. "In the
Baltic states and Ukraine, independence is still seen as something
fragile and not necessarily built to last. So if it's not defended
actively, it can't last," Cichocki explained. Poland and the Baltic
states are solidly anchored in the West. Warsaw joined NATO in 1999 and
the EU in 2004, while the Baltic trio entered both in 2004. They back
Georgia and Ukraine's efforts to obtain what they see as those crucial
shields. "People are certainly afraid that Russia could attack Lithuania
just like Georgia. And you see that kind of view among politicians,"
said Lithuanian political scientist Kestutis Girnius. While arguments
rage between Moscow and Tbilisi about who started fighting, Poland and
the Baltic states see Georgians as the victims. "We're Georgia's closest
friend in the region. We've suffered the same kind of violence," senior
Lithuanian foreign ministry official Zygimantas Pavilionis told AFP. The
Baltic states were scarred by Soviet rule. On June 14, 1941, tens of
thousands of their people were herded onto cattle trains and shipped out
to the far eastern reaches of the Soviet Union, where many died.
Moscow's deportation drive was cut short when the Nazis turned on their
erstwhile allies on June 22, 1941, pushing the Red Army out of the
Baltic states as they invaded the Soviet Union. In 1944, however, the
Soviets ended the Nazis' own bloody occupation, and began a new wave of
deportations lasting into the 1950s. Poles, meanwhile, remember the
Soviet killing of some 22,000 Polish POWs in 1940 in what became known
as the Katyn massacre, as well as the brutality of communist rule after
the war. more... Several decades ago, Latvian filmmaker Albert
Jekste produced a grim, gripping documentary entitled "My Latvia"
depicting the Soviet conquest and occupation of the Baltic States.
This documentary features of the illegal Soviet military occupation
of the Baltic states in 1940. This unusual film, which illuminates
communist methods of internal subversion and conquest, includes rare
scenes of Stalin and other Soviet leaders attending closed Kremlin
meetings, and examines the criminal background of the Latvian
nationals who "invited" the Soviets into that country and
subsequently assumed high communist government posts.
YouTube My Latvia (Part 1 of 2):
0:09:58 My Latvia (Part 2 of 2):
0:07:58
Georgia claims Russians have cut country in half
Associated Press
(August 11, 2008) - Russian tanks roared
deep into Georgia on Monday, launching a new western front in the
conflict, and Russian planes staged air raids that sent people screaming
and fleeing for cover in some towns. Russian forces for the first time
moved well outside the two restive, pro-Russian provinces claimed by
Georgia that lie at the heart of the dispute. An Associated Press
reporter saw Russian troops in control of government buildings in this
town just miles from the frontier and Russian troops were reported in
nearby Senaki. Georgia's president said his country had been sliced in
half with the capture of a critical highway crossroads near the central
city of Gori, and Russian warplanes launched new air raids across the
country. The Russian Defense Ministry, through news agencies, denied it
had captured Gori and also denied any intentions to advance on the
Georgian capital of Tbilisi. In New York, the United Nations Security
Council held an emergency session at Georgia's request, the fifth
meeting on the fighting in as many days. The western assault expanded
the days-old war beyond the central breakaway region of South Ossetia,
where a crackdown by Georgia last week drew a military response from
Russia. While most Georgian forces were still busy fighting there,
Russian troops opened the western attack by invading from a second
separatist province, Abkhazia, that occupies Georgia's coastal northwest
arm. Russian forces moved into Senaki, 20 miles inland from the Black
Sea, and seized police stations in Zugdidi, just outside the southern
fringe of Abkhazia. Abkhazian allies took control of the nearby village
of Kurga, according to witnesses and Georgian officials. The Georgian
president, Mikhail Saakashvili, told CNN late Monday that Russian forces
were cleansing Abkhazia of ethnic Georgians. "I directly accuse Russia
of ethnic cleansing," he said. At the U.N. on Friday, each side accused
the other of ethnic cleansing. By late Monday, Russian news agencies,
citing the Defense Ministry, said troops had left Senaki, 20 miles
inland from the Black Sea port of Poti, "after liquidating the danger,"
but did not give details. The new assault came despite a claim earlier
in the day by a top Russian general that Russia had no plans to enter
undisputed Georgian territory. Both provinces of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia have run their own affairs without international recognition
since fighting to split from Georgia in the early 1990, and both have
close ties with Moscow. When Georgia began its offensive to regain
control over South Ossetia, the Russian response was swift and
overpowering — thousands of troops and tanks poured in. Georgia had
pledged a cease-fire, but it rang hollow Monday. An AP reporter saw a
small group of Georgian fighters open fire on a column of Russian and
Ossetian military vehicles outside Tskhinvali, triggering a 30-minute
battle. The Russians later said all the Georgians were killed.
more...
Russia Deploys Ships, Expands Georgia Bombing Blitz
Fox News
(August 10, 2008) - Russia battled Georgian
forces on land and sea, reports said late Sunday, despite a Georgian
cease-fire offer and its claim to be withdrawing from South Ossetia, the
separatist Georgian province battered by days of intense fighting.
Russia claimed to have sunk a Georgian boat that was trying to attack
Russian vessels in the Black Sea, and Georgian officials said Russia
sent tanks from South Ossetia into Georgia proper, heading toward a
strategic city before being turned back. Russian planes on Sunday twice
bombed an area near the Georgian capital's airport, officials said. The
violence appeared to show gargantuan Russia's determination to subdue
diminutive, U.S.-backed Georgia, even at the risk of international
reproach. Russia fended off a wave of international calls to observe
Georgia's cease-fire, saying it must first be assured that Georgian
troops have indeed pulled back from South Ossetia. International envoys
were heading in to try to end the conflict before it spreads throughout
the Caucasus, a region plagued by ethnic tensions. But it was unclear
what inducements or pressure the envoys could bring to bear, or to what
extent either side was truly sensitive to world opinion. Georgian
President Mikhail Saakashvili said one of the Russian raids on the
airport area came a half hour before the arrival of the foreign
ministers of France and Finland — in the country to try to mediate.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Temur Yakobashvili said Russian
tanks tried to cross from South Ossetia into the territory of Georgia
proper, but were turned back by Georgian forces. He said the tanks
apparently were trying to approach Gori, but did not fire on the city of
about 50,000 that sits on Georgia's only significant east-west highway.
Russia also sent naval vessels to patrol off Georgia's Black Sea coast,
but denied Sunday that the move was aimed at establishing a blockade.
The ITAR-Tass news agency quoted a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman as
saying that Georgian missile boats twice tried to attack Russian ships,
which fired back and sank one of the Georgian vessels. South Ossetia
broke away from Georgian control in 1992. Russia granted passports to
most of its residents and the region's separatist leaders sought to
absorb the region into Russia. Georgia, whose troops have been trained
by American soldiers, began an offensive to regain control over South
Ossetia overnight Friday, launching heavy rocket and artillery fire and
air strikes that pounded the regional capital Tskhinvali. Georgia says
it was responding to attacks by separatists. In response, Russia
launched massive artillery shelling and air attacks on Georgian troops.
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said more than 2,000
people had been killed in South Ossetia since Friday, most of them
Ossetians with Russian passports. The figures could not be independently
confirmed. The scope of Russia's military response has the Bush
administration deeply worried. "We have made it clear to the Russians
that if the disproportionate and dangerous escalation on the Russian
side continues, that this will have a significant long-term impact on
U.S.-Russian relations," U.S. deputy national security adviser Jim
Jeffrey told reporters. The U.S. military began flying 2,000 Georgian
troops home from Iraq after Georgia recalled them, even while calling
for a truce. "Georgia expresses its readiness to immediately start
negotiations with the Russian Federation on a cease-fire and termination
of hostilities," the Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement,
adding that it had notified Russia's envoy to Tbilisi. But Russia
insisted Georgian troops were continuing their attacks. Alexander
Darchiev, Russia's charge d'affairs in Washington, said Georgian
soldiers were "not withdrawing but regrouping, including heavy armor and
increased attacks on Tskhinvali." "Mass mobilization is still under
way," he told CNN's "Late Edition." President Bush sought to contain the
conflict in Georgia on Sunday as the White House warned that "Russian
aggression must not go unanswered." Bush, in Beijing for the Olympics,
has pressed for international mediation and reached out Sunday to French
President Nicolas Sarkozy, who heads the European Union. The two agreed
on the need for a cease-fire and a respect for Georgia's integrity, a
White House spokesman said. more...
'Hizbullah received advanced launchers'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 10, 2008) - The senior aide to
Syrian President Bashar Assad who was assassinated last weekend had been
in charge of supplying Hizbullah with advanced anti-aircraft weaponry,
the Sunday Times reported. According to the report, Brig.-Gen. Muhammad
Suleiman had provided the guerrilla group with advanced Syrian SA-8
anti-aircraft missiles, Middle Eastern sources told the paper. Such
missiles could potentially challenge the IAF reconnaissance flights
which are currently conducted unhindered over Lebanon. Last week,
Lebanon's new Cabinet unanimously approved a draft policy statement
which could secure Hizbullah's existence as an armed organization and
guarantee its right to "liberate or recover occupied lands." "The
Cabinet unanimously approved the draft," Information Minister Tarek
Mitri told reporters after the five-hour meeting at the presidential
palace in a Beirut suburb last Monday. Government sources in Jerusalem
said the decision would make the government in Beirut an accomplice to
any Hizbullah aggression and give Israel the right to hold it
responsible. During the Second Lebanon War, Israel came under
international pressure not to harm Lebanon's infrastructure because it
was Hizbullah, not the Lebanese government, that killed several IDF
soldiers and kidnapped reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in the
July 2006 cross border raid which sparked the conflict. Not only does this kind of
activity seem like something that Israel may react to with force,
but also that could help preserve the forces coming from the North
following Israel's response to continued arms buildup in clear
continued preparation to fulfill the promised destruction of the
state of Israel from her enemies. We know God's plans however and
while Israel will be severely diminished in the future
time of Jacob's trouble, there is a remnant that will come to
see Yeshua as the Messiah they have been longing for.
War in Georgia: The Israeli connection
YNet News
(August 10, 2008) - For past seven years,
Israeli companies have been helping Gerogian army to preparer for war
against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and
security advice. The fighting which broke out over the weekend between
Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the
region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of
advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's
infantry forces. The Defense Ministry held a special meeting Sunday to
discuss the various arms deals held by Israelis in Georgia, but no
change in policy has been announced as of yet. "The subject is closely
monitored," said sources in the Defense Ministry. "We are not operating
in any way which may counter Israeli interests. We have turned down many
requests involving arms sales to Georgia; and the ones which have been
approves have been duly scrutinized. So far, we have placed no
limitations on the sale of protective measures." Israel began selling
arms to Georgia about seven years ago following an initiative by
Georgian citizens who immigrated to Israel and became businesspeople.
"They contacted defense industry officials and arms dealers and told
them that Georgia had relatively large budgets and could be interested
in purchasing Israeli weapons," says a source involved in arms exports.
The military cooperation between the countries developed swiftly. The
fact that Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former
Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew contributed to this cooperation. "His
door was always open to the Israelis who came and offered his country
arms systems made in Israel," the source said. "Compared to countries in
Eastern Europe, the deals in this country were conducted fast, mainly
due to the defense minister's personal involvement." Israelis' activity
in Georgia and the deals they struck there were all authorized by the
Defense Ministry. Israel viewed Georgia as a friendly state to which
there is no reason not to sell arms systems similar to those Israel
exports to other countries in the world. As the tension between Russia
and Georgia grew, however, increasing voices were heard in Israel –
particularly in the Foreign Ministry – calling on the Defense Ministry
to be more selective in the approval of the deals with Georgia for fear
that they would anger Russia. "It was clear that too many unmistakable
Israeli systems in the possesion of the Georgian army would be like a
red cloth in the face of a raging bull as far as Russia is concerned,"
explained a source in the defense establishment. For inctance, the
Russians viewed the operation of the Elbit System's RPVs as a real
provocation. "It was clear that the Russians were angry," says a defense
establishment source, "and that the interception of three of these RPVs
in the past three months was an expression of this anger. Not everyone
in Israel understood the sensitive nerve Israel touched when it supplied
such an advanced arms system to a country whose relations with Russia
are highly tense." more... Another reason Russia would
want to join with her military allies to attack Israel from the
North when the time comes? Keep watching! See also:
Georgian Jews Flee from Russian Border, Expecting Invasion See
Also:
'Oil, Israel and Iran' Among Factors that Led to Georgia War
Russia, Georgia Risk Larger War as Attacks Continue Into Morning
Fox News
(August 8, 2008) - Russia dispatched an
armored column into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia on Friday
after Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, launched a surprise offensive to
crush separatists. Witnesses said hundreds of civilians were killed.
Fighting reportedly raged well into the night with Georgia's interior
ministry saying early Saturday that warplanes attacked three Georgian
military bases and key facilities for shipping oil to the West. The
fighting, which devastated the capital of Tskhinvali, threatened to
ignite a wider war between Georgia and Russia, and escalate tensions
between Moscow and Washington. Georgia said it was forced to launch the
assault because of rebel attacks; the separatists alleged Georgia
violated a cease-fire. "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined
buildings, in cars," said Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, who had fled with her
family to Dzhava, a village near the border with Russia. "It's
impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left
undamaged." The fighting broke out as much of the world's attention was
focused on the start of the Olympic Games and many leaders, including
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Bush, were in
Beijing. The timing suggested Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili may
have been counting on surprise to fulfill his longtime pledge to wrest
back control of South Ossetia — a key to his hold on power. The rebels
seek to unite with North Ossetia, which is part of Russia. Saakashvili
agreed the timing was not coincidental, but accused Russia of being the
aggressor. "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays," he told
CNN. "Brilliant moment to attack a small country." Seeking to prevent an
all-out war, diplomats issued a flurry of statements calling on both
sides to halt the fighting. The U.N. Security Council held two tense
emergency sessions 12 hours apart with both sides using the forum to
launch accusations. As the meeting recessed, officials promised a third
council session Saturday. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged
Russia to halt aircraft and missile attacks and withdraw combat forces
from Georgian territory. Rice said in a statement the United States
wants Russia to respect Georgian sovereignty and agree to international
mediation. The leader of South Ossetia's rebel government, Eduard
Kokoity, said about 1,400 people were killed in the onslaught, the
Interfax news agency reported. The toll could not be independently
confirmed. As night fell, there were conflicting claims as to who held
the battlefield advantage. Saakashvili said "Georgian military forces
completely control all the territory of South Ossetia" except for a
northern section adjacent to Russia. But Russian news agencies cited a
Russian military official as saying heavy fighting was under way on the
outskirts of the regional capital. It was unclear what might persuade
either side to stop shooting. Both claim the battle started after the
other side violated a cease-fire that had been declared just hours
earlier after a week of sporadic clashes. The United States was sending
in its top Caucasus envoy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew
Bryza, to try to end the bloodshed. It was the worst outbreak of
hostilities since the province won de facto independence in a war
against Georgia that ended in 1992. Russian troops went in as
peacekeepers but Georgia alleges they now back the separatists. "We are
facing Russian aggression," said Georgia's Security Council chief Kakha
Lomaya. "They have sent in their troops and weapons and they are bombing
our towns." Putin warned in the early stages of the conflict that the
Georgian attack would draw retaliation and the Defense Ministry pledged
to protect South Ossetians, most of whom have Russian citizenship.
Chairing a session of his Security Council in the Kremlin, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev also vowed that Moscow will protect Russian
citizens. "In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as
president of Russia, am obliged to protect lives and dignity of Russian
citizens wherever they are located," Medvedev said. "We won't allow the
death of our compatriots go unpunished." On Friday, an AP reporter saw
tanks and other heavy weapons concentrating on the Russian side of the
border with South Ossetia — supporting the reports of an incursion. Some
villagers were fleeing into Russia. more... As is pointed out in the
article, Georgia is all that stands between Russia and Turkey.
According to Bible prophecy, Russia, Turkey, Iran and others attack
Israel from the North and God destroys them in the mountains of
Israel. I mentioned a possibility back
in
May when Georgia warned they were very close to war with Russia.
It appears that this has begun to come to fruition. As for it
leading the the Magog invasion, I still believe that Israel's action
against Damascus will prompt the attack and if the forces are
already built up on the Northern border of Turkey, who is part of
the attack, and Hezbollah has already shown its ability to control
Lebanon, there is a path for forces to come quickly from the North
onto the mountains of Israel. Will this be the case soon? I don't
know, but I'm still watching. This situation made me think of
Poland, 1939.
Energy ties deepen between Iran and Turkey
Gas And Oil
(August 7, 2008) - The United States has
maintained various sanctions against Iran since 1979, implemented in
aftermath of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. As relations
worsen between the US and Iran, Washington is seeking to have the United
Nations Security Council impose additional sanctions on Iran for its
nuclear enrichment activities, which Tehran insists are legal, entirely
peaceful, and intended for generating electricity. Among the sanctions
that most concern foreign energy companies and nations is the 1996
Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), renewed in 2001, which provides for
punitive measures against entities that invest more than $20 mm (EUR 13
mm) annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. Many countries are
deeply ambivalent toward the US policy, none more so than Turkey, which
imports 90% of its energy needs. Now Ankara is pushing the limits by
increasing its natural gas purchases from Iran and considering possible
involvement in developing the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves. On
July 29 Iranian Petroleum Minister Qolam Hosein Nozari said in Tehran
that Turkey and Iran were negotiating over Turkey being a transit
corridor for Iranian natural gas exports to Europe and that Iran would
provide increased amounts of natural gas to Turkey during the winter (Anadolu
Ajansi, June 30). According to Nozari, the pipeline, which would run
from Iran’s South Pars natural gas and oil fields to the border province
of Bazargan, was discussed during the OPEC summit held on June 22 in
Jeddah (Tehran Times, June 29). Even worse for administration officials
seeking to sustain and intensify the US sanctions regime, Nozari said,
“We have also spoken about the participation of Turkey in the
development of phases 14 and 23 of the South Pars field” (Hurriyet, June
30). The 3,745 sq-mile Persian Gulf South Pars-North Dome gas condensate
field, straddling Iranian and Qatari territorial waters, is the world’s
largest known gas field. Discovered by the National Iranian Oil Company
(NIOC) in 1990, Iran’s sector, known as South Pars, covers 1,428 sq
miles, with the site’s remaining 2,317 sq miles, North Dome, lying in
Qatari waters. South Pars-North Dome has estimated reserves of
approximately 51 tcm of natural gas and 50 bn barrels of condensate;
with in-place reserves equivalent to 360 bn barrels of oil. South
Pars-North Dome is the world’s biggest conventional hydrocarbon
accretion, dwarfing even Saudi Arabia’s 170 bn barrel Ghawar oil field
(Middle East Economic Survey, March 20, 2006). Phase 14, due to begin
production in 2014, is part of a $10 bn (EUR 6.5 bn) liquefied natural
gas (LNG) project, which already has foreign investors -- a partnership
of NIOC (50%), Anglo-Dutch firm Royal Dutch Shell (25%), and Spain’s
Repsol-YPF (25%). When operational, the project’s initial production
capacity will consist of two components, each capable of an annual
production of 8 mm tons of LNG. For Ankara, the choice of major natural
gas suppliers is difficult, Russia or Iran, while waiting for Azerbaijan
to ramp up production. Iran, which holds the world's second largest gas
reserves, currently provides over one-third of Turkey’s domestic demand,
while Turkey receives 63.7% of its imports from Gazprom with smaller
volumes coming from Azerbaijan. In 1996 Turkey signed a contract with
Iran for natural gas deliveries, which began in December 2001 via a
pipeline from Tabriz to Ankara. The South Caucasus pipeline, also known
as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, opened in December
2006 with an annual capacity of 8.8 bn cm and carries Azeri Caspian
natural gas to Turkey via Georgia. Energy imports from both nations are
critical to sustaining Turkish economic growth, even though Washington,
whose diplomatic relations are increasingly strained with Russia and
non-existent with Iran, is very unhappy about the situation. According
to Turkey’s Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu (Turkish Statistical Institute),
Turkey’s economic growth accelerated more than expected from January
through March, increasing to 6.6% from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of
2007 (www.tuik.gov.tr). The figure exceeded the market estimates by 35
to 40%, as the expected growth rate was around 4% (Milliyet, July 1). In
2007 Turkey's annual GDP growth rate was 4.5%. Rising energy costs,
however, are proving to be a significant drag on economic growth.
Earlier this year the Turkish government hiked electricity prices by
21%, and Ankara is preparing to raise natural gas prices in July by 9%
for residences and 11% for businesses (Radikal, July 1). In June,
Turkey’s Devlet Planlama Teskilati (State Planning Organization, or DPT)
prepared a comprehensive projection for Turkey’s economy from 2009
through 2011, which has been approved by the Cabinet and published in
the government’s official gazette, Resmi Gazete (http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr,
June 28). The plan includes measures to ensure energy supply security in
the long-term and gives top priority to decreasing the country’s
dependence on imported natural gas. At a time of record high oil prices,
when Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said, "Consumer countries have to
adapt to the prices and the mechanisms of the market," Washington’s
efforts to compel its allies to respect its hard-line sanctions against
Tehran seem at best naïve, especially when the United States has no
alternative sources of energy to offer (Al-Siyassah, July 2). While
Washington’s threats of sanctions in June caused both Royal Dutch Shell
and Repsol-YPF to withdraw from the South Pars development, there is a
major difference between a multinational company and a sovereign
government bending to sanctions. For Turkey, displays of political
solidarity must take a back seat to financial considerations, as the
government is committed to economic growth to improve the lives of its
citizens. Ankara estimates that from Desert Storm in 1991 until the
March 2003 invasion of Iraq, it lost an estimated $80 bn in oil revenues
and increased energy costs as a result of supporting US and UN sanctions
and policies against Iraq. Washington can hardly expect Turkey to suffer
further financial losses for supporting its Middle East policies. With
no end to energy price increases in sight, Washington must acknowledge
the reality of Turkey’s pragmatic economic relations with its
energy-rich eastern neighbour, even if it does not agree with them.
Iran's Ahmadinejad in Turkey In Next Month
Iran Mania
(July 26, 2008) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is
expected to pay an official visit to Turkey at the invitation of his
Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul, PressTV reported. The visit would take
place late in August and diplomatic sources in Ankara have declared that
a date for the visit will be set soon, Turkish Daily reported on Friday.
During the meeting agreements would be signed to further strengthen
economic ties between the two neighboring countries. In May, Ahmadinejad
in a meeting with Turkish State Minister Kursad Tuzmen said the two
countries have the potential to turn into major economic powers in the
world. The Turkish state minister said that the trade volume between the
two countries could reach USD 20b by the end of 2011.
Iran, Turkey discuss ways
to further cooperation, nuclear issue
Mathaba (July
19, 2008) - The Iranian minister who visited Turkey at the
invitation of his Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan left Ankara on Friday
evening. During the meeting, Mottaki and Erdogan stressed the need for
broadening Tehran-Ankara economic ties by carrying out more projects in
energy field including construction of power plants. Mottaki also
briefed Erdogan on latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear
program hoping that the upcoming talks between nuclear Iran and the
Group 5+1 would lead to positive outcome. Iran's top nuclear negotiator
Saeed Jalili arrived in Geneva, Austria, on July 18 to take part in the
talks due to be held on Saturday. In a major shift from a long-standing
policy, the US State Department announced on Wednesday that Under
Secretary of State William Burns, the third-highest US diplomat, would
join the 5+1 talks with Iran. The Turkish prime minister told Mottaki
that Ankara was happy that the trend of talks between Iran and the West
was progressing. Erdogan stressed that peaceful negotiations was the
only solution to Iran's nuclear standoff with the West. Mottaki also
held two rounds of talks with his Turkish counterpart and also met
Turkish President Abdullah Gul. His visit to Turkey was part of a
regional tour which had earlier took him to Oman and Syria.
Hizbullah moves into 'every town'
The Jerusalem Post (July 17, 2008)
- Hizbullah is bolstering its presence in south Lebanon villages with
non-Shi'ite majorities by buying land and using it to build military
positions and store missiles and launchers, The Jerusalem Post has
learned. The decision to build infrastructure in non-Shi'ite villages -
where Hizbullah has less support - is part of the group's post-war
strategy under which it has mostly abandoned the "nature reserves,"
forested areas in southern Lebanon where it kept most of its Katyusha
rocket launchers before the Second Lebanon War. Behind the change is the
mandate given to UNIFIL by the United Nations after the war in 2006.
According to the mandate, the peacekeeping force can patrol freely
throughout southern Lebanon but cannot enter villages or cities without
being accompanied by soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces, which
regularly tips off Hizbullah ahead of the raids. News of the change in
Hizbullah strategy came as Israel is trying to persuade the UN to
strengthen UNIFIL's mandate to give it the right to patrol the villages
freely. "Hizbullah is moving into every town that it can," a senior
defense official told the Post. "This is in order to evade UNIFIL
detection." On Thursday, Lebanese complained they were receiving
recorded phone messages from Israel promising "harsh retaliation" for
any future Hizbullah attack. The automated messages also warn against
allowing Hizbullah to form "a state within a state" in the country. The
phone messages end with the words: "The State of Israel." There was no
immediate confirmation from Israel, though similar reports surfaced of
Israeli phone campaigns during the 2006 war trying to persuade Lebanese
not to support Hizbullah. Lebanon's official National News Agency said
residents in the country's south and east, as well as in Beirut
reporting receiving the calls. It said Telecommunications Minister
Jibran Bassil contacted the United Nations to complain, calling it a
"flagrant aggression against Lebanese sovereignty." Also Thursday,
defense officials warned that with the prisoner swap completed,
Hizbullah would no longer need to restrain itself and might decide to
avenge the assassination of the group's operations chief, Imad Mughniyeh,
who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus last February. As a result, the
IDF has slightly increased its level of alert along the border, based on
the assessment that even if a retaliatory attack took place abroad the
violence would spread to the Israeli-Lebanese border.
We only get one strike
The Jerusalem Post (July 16, 2008) -
An Israeli attack on Iran seems inevitable. If it succeeds, it will
return to Israel its deterrent power and send a clear message to the
saber-rattling jihadists that they were too early in beginning the
countdown for the disappearance of the Jewish state. If it fails, or
fails to achieve the majority of its objectives, it could amount to an
act of national suicide. Fanatical Muslims on every side will be
encouraged by the failure and outcome of an Iranian retaliation which
would cause heavy damage to the whole center of our country. Iran would
unquestionably be joined by its proxies on our borders, Hizbullah and
Syria on the north and Hamas on the south, the PLO jihad brigades under
various names, and the Arabs of Israel. The latter have already shown
their ability to block major traffic arteries and demonstrated that
their loyalties rest with their Arab brethren, not with the Jewish
state. The repeated declarations of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that
the aim of Iran is to wipe Israel off the world map should not be taken
as the empty, fiery words of a fanatical Muslim dictator, but as a plan
of action. True, Iran does not need a pretext, but an Israeli attack on
any nuclear installation in Iran, or just an invasion of Iranian air
space could be used as an excellent reason for mounting an all-out
missile attack. Since the late ninth century, the Shi'ites have been
expecting the emergence of the hidden imam-mahdi, armed with divine
power and followed by thousands of martyrdom-seeking warriors. He is
expected to conquer the world and establish Shi'ism as its supreme
religion and system of rule. His appearance would involve terrible war
and unusual bloodshed. Ahmadinejad, as mayor of Teheran, built a
spectacular boulevard through which the mahdi would enter into the
capital. There is no question that Ahmadinejad believes he has been
chosen to be the herald of the mahdi. Shi'ite Islam differs from Sunni
Islam regarding the identity of the mahdi. The Sunni mahdi is
essentially an anonymous figure; the Shi'ite mahdi is a divinely
inspired person with a real identity. However both Shi'ites and Sunnis
share one particular detail about "the coming of the hour" and the
dawning of messianic times: The Jews must all suffer a violent death, to
the last one. Both Shi'ites and Sunnis quote the famous hadith
attributed to the Prophet Muhammad: The last hour will not come unless
the Muslims fight against the Jews, and the Muslims would kill them
until the Jews hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and the stone or
the tree would say: "Muslim! Servant of Allah! Here is a Jew behind me;
come and kill him!" Not one Friday passes without this hadith being
quoted in sermons from one side of the Islamic world to the other.
more... If it weren't for my study of
Bible prophecy, I would probably expect Israel to attack Iran. I
could very well be wrong and nothing I say should be taken without
personal study and prayer, but I'm continually brought back to
Isaiah 17 and the destruction of Damascus apparently by the
"children of Israel." This opinion piece brings home the possible
reality of this a little more. I think Israel realizes the
seriousness of their current situation and if they are going to make
a show of force, it will be big. After the loss in Lebanon during
the summer 2006 engagement, Israel can't afford to appear insincere
about her existence. If the elections in Israel change leadership to
someone like Netanyahu, we could see a government more willing to
make their intentions to remain more clear. Could it lead to the
destruction of Damascus? I can't say, but I'm watching and will keep
sharing what I see with you so you can decide for yourself and share
with those who have ears to hear.
Ahmadinejad: We'll sever enemies' hands
The Jerusalem Post
(July 13,
2008) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened on Sunday
to "cut off the hands" of any would-be attackers of the Islamic
Republic. "Before the enemies touch the trigger, the armed forces will
cut off their hands," the state-run IRNA news agency quoted the leader
as saying. Ahmadinejad said that missile tests conducted last week
exhibited "only a small part" of Iran's defense capabilities, and that,
if necessary, further capabilities would be revealed. Ahmadinejad's
statement comes amid a report that US President George W. Bush has given
Israel the "amber light" to carry out an attack on Iran if diplomatic
efforts are unsuccessful in causing the Islamic Republic to back down
and relinquish its nuclear program. According to a senior Pentagon
official quoted by the British Sunday Times on Sunday morning, Bush has
given Israel free rein to attack Iran's nuclear sites if sanctions fail
in spite of opposition from US generals and regardless of the possible
economic and political repercussions of such a strike. "Amber means get
on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us
when you're ready," the official said, adding however, that Israel had
been told that it could not count on the US to lend it military support.
Contradicting recent reports to the contrary, he also said that the IAF
would not be permitted to take off from American military bases in Iraq.
The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the report. Ahmadinejad's
aggressive statements contrasted strikingly with a report on Iranian
state TV Sunday, which quoted him as saying that Iran would welcome the
idea of setting up a US diplomatic office in Teheran. The report quoted
the firebrand Iranian leader as saying he would consider an American
request to set up an interests section in Iran. He said he "welcomes any
move to expand ties." But Ahmadinejad said his government hasn't
received any official request for such an office. Last month, US
officials floated the idea but no formal requests were made. more...
'We'll Take Land By Force if Talks Fail'
The Jerusalem Post
(July 12,
2008) - Should diplomacy fail to return "Israeli-occupied land"
to Lebanon, the Lebanese army (LAF) will take it by force, Lebanese
President Gen. Michel Sueleiman said on Sunday. Suleiman was speaking at
a press conference after meeting Syrian President Bashar Assad on the
sidelines of the Mediterranean conference in Paris. The Lebanese
president stressed, however, that the military option was the last
resort. Assad said Lebanon had an important role to play in the Middle
East peace process and that any progress in future Israel-Lebanon
negotiations would be made in coordination with Syria. Meanwhile, in
what is being interpreted in Israel as a declaration of ownership, the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has built a road and set up a military
position in the Shaba Farms/ Mount Dov area for the first time since
Israel's withdrawal from that part of Lebanon in 2000. Israeli defense
officials confirmed the move, which was first reported in the Lebanese
media, but would not comment on its significance. It seems the alliances are
continuing together and the idea of Israel stealing land is uniting
those alliances against Israel further. The attack on Israel that is
prophesied to take place comes from the North parts and they are
decimated in the mountains of Israel. Lebanon is immediately to the
North and Syria also borders Israel to the North, both in agreement
against Israel and if Israel is responsible for the destruction of
Damascus, I'm sure they will allow armies to come through there to
the North of Israel and the mountains there. Ezekiel 39:2 Also see
map of mountains
Sarkozy: Syria and Lebanon will open embassies
Associated Press
(July 12,
2008) - France's president says Syria and Lebanon will open
embassies in each other's countries. The nations have not had
full-fledged embassies in each other's countries since Lebanon became
independent in 1943 and Syria in 1945. Syrian President Bashar Assad
said last month that establishing diplomatic ties with Lebanon would be
possible if a national unity Cabinet was formed in Beirut. Such a
government, including members of Syria's ally Hezbollah, was formed
Friday after weeks of haggling. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is
hosting a summit among leaders of 43 nations from Europe and the
Mediterranean rim. Lebanon's new president said Saturday he wants to
establish diplomatic ties with Syria and exchange ambassadors, calling
for a major shift in long-hostile relations between the neighbors.
Michel Suleiman spoke before talks in Paris with his Syrian counterpart,
Bashar Assad — and on the eve of a rare summit among leaders of 43
nations from Europe and the Mediterranean rim that France says could
send a "wind of hope" through the region. "We want an exchange of
ambassadors and diplomatic relations with Syria," Suleiman told
reporters at the French presidential palace. He said he was "satisfied"
with relations with Syria and that a visit there is "still on the
agenda." The two countries have not had diplomatic relations since 2005,
when former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed. Syria's
critics accuse Damascus of having a role in the slaying, a charge Syria
denies. Suleiman would not comment on a hoped-for timeframe for new ties
or embassies. The nations have not had full-fledged embassies in each
other's countries since Lebanon became independent in 1943 and Syria in
1945. more... In looking at recent history in
light of Bible prophecy, this is interesting that at this time Syria
and Lebanon are showing signs of political cooperation. As we saw,
the Hezbollah uprising in Lebanon led to an increase in cooperation
between governments.
more here Then there's the threat by Israel regarding this
puppet group of Iran. more here In
case you've just joined the newsletter, my current theory in light
of what I've studied from the Bible and seen in current events
reported here is posted
here.
Hezbollah uprising exposed it as Iran's puppet in Lebanon
Ya Libnan (June
9, 2008)
- Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Shiite mullahs executing Khomeini's will
to export the "Islamic revolution" remain on their self-assigned mission
to slay the "Great Satan," the U.S. They were finding their campaign
stumbling in all the pertinent places throughout the Sunni-dominated
Mideast. This forced the Iranians to concentrate on multi-religious
Lebanon in order to compensate for the major grounds lost lately in
Iraq. The projection of Iranian power comes mainly in the form of
Hezbollah. Hezbollah's most recent pretext to disrupt and dominate the
nation was simple decisions of sovereignty by the Lebanese government on
May7, including extending control over the Hezbollah communications
network. Hezbollah refused. The group launched an armed revolt in
Beirut, conquering districts, trashing government buildings, burning TV
stations, and looting the city at will. But six days of violent
confrontations between the well-armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and
untrained individual Lebanese did not lead to the fall of the government
or plunge the country in complete chaos as it was intended. Lebanese
citizens improvised strategies to defend their neighborhoods. Hezbollah
fighters lacked necessary logistical support in order to remain in the
areas they invaded. So Hezbollah had to hand over the zones back to the
Lebanese army. The Arabs, realizing the gravity of the Iranian assault,
started an initiative culminating in a summit in Qatar. Ultimately, the
factional and governmental representatives left with the Doha Accord.
Pacification returned to the smoldering streets of Beirut. more...
Crossfire War - Israel Estimates Iran-Syria to Fire 250-300 Long Range
Missiles News Blaze
(July 3, 2008) - "How Many Missiles will be
Fired from Iran-Syria-Lebanon Against Israel in the Next War?" was the
subject of a lecture given by Major-General (res.) Eitan Ben Eliahu at
the Israel Missile Defense Association (IMDA) (www.imda.org.il) a new
link with Crossfire War. Haaretz reports General Eliahu headed the
Israel Air Force (IAF) from 1996-2000 and in his lecture earlier this
week he estimated Syria-Iran will launch 250-300 long range Shahab-Scud
missiles at Israel in the next war. Eliahu estimated Hezbollah in
Lebanon will be able to launch 5,000 short range missiles, an increase
from the 4,200 they fired in 2006. Hezbollah does possess some longer
range missiles which can hit Tel Aviv and no doubt they will be used as
quickly as possible since the IAF will make destroying the longer range
missiles their top priority whether they are fired from
Lebanon-Syria-Iran. Eliahu expects the full scale fighting to last 20
days. [HAARETZ]
In the course of his discussion General Eliahu mentioned Israel
operates under a security doctrine that does allow for An Initiated War
(preventive strike) as in 1967 which was so successful the war
lasted only six days and Israel was able to take the strategic Golan
Heights, a Syrian obsession ever since and Damascus' main motive for
entering the war this year. He then said if an Initiated War is not
possible then the doctrine provides for a Pre-Emptive Attack to disrupt
the enemy's preparation. The IAF attack on the Syrian nuclear
base last September was an example. Eliahu then mentioned if war
does result then Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must conduct a holding
operation during which they must achieve Aerial Superiority. He probably
realizes if/when Israel does conduct a pre-emptive attack on Iran, for
disruptive purposes, it would mean full scale war, beyond the serious
flare ups of the past two years which did not yet lead to Israel's
offensive into Gaza. Eliahu stated Israel should
expect the next war to require action on one to three fronts and in
order to achieve victory the IDF must crush the enemy on one of the
fronts, which would be either Hezbollah in Lebanon or Syria. Since the
ground area to cover is smaller in Lebanon Israel's offensive there
should not take as long as in the case with Syria. Jerusalem may also
prefer a quick victory against the hated Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah even if
it means using nuclear weapons. Concerning Palestinian units in Gaza
Eliahu recommends a war of containment which would include a ground
offensive. Against Iran he recommended long range attacks should be
continued. more...
Russian FM visits Turkey
Kuwait News Agency
(July 2, 2008) - In a visit which is the
first of its kind for a high ranking Russian official following the
presidential elections in Moscow last March, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov has arrived at Turkey on an official visit to discuss a
number of hot regional issues. During the two-day visit, Lavrov will
meet with his Turkish counterpart Ali Babajan, the president Abdullah
Gul, and the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The meetings will
focus on ways to develop economic and bilateral ties between the two
countries, in addition to discussing regional developments, especially
in Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkan countries.
Moreover, the topics up for discussion include Turkey's mediation
efforts in indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel, which Russia
supports.
Turkey's past is ruining hopes of a liberal future
Times Online
(July 2, 2008) - Turkey took a lurch
towards turmoil yesterday as the chief prosecutor outlined his case for
banning the governing party and police detained two retired commanders,
among others, in their pursuit of a group alleged to be plotting a coup.
For months, as this clash has been brewing, allies of Turkey hoped that
it would fade away as an older generation of nationalist-minded generals
gave way to younger, European-orientated politicians. It won’t. It now
seems that the struggle for Turkey’s identity is going to get much
worse, while its chances of a liberal, modern future dissolve. Ever
since Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, and his Justice and
Development Party (AK Party) were elected enthusiastically six years
ago, the country’s old-guard defenders of its historic secularism have
been uneasy. That is an entirely fair starting point. Turkey’s
secularism, a fervent refusal to allow religion to shape the
institutions of state, has been the heart of the republic founded by
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923. It has underpinned the extraordinary
position that Turkey has chosen for itself: as the only Islamic member
of Nato; as the only Islamic friend of Israel; as a bridge, culturally
and diplomatically, between Central Asia and Europe. The Army has
repeatedly intervened in Turkey’s history to protect that secularism.
But this has clashed with its hopes of building a modern democracy. It
has been coming to a head since 2002 when the people of Turkey
overwhelmingly elected a government which, in the name of liberalism,
set out to grant more licence for Islamic practices. It is fair for the
generals – and others – to have been suspicious of the AK Party
initially. The party’s roots were in two overtly Islamic groups. Its
intentions, on arriving in Government, were unknown. The 1979 Iranian
revolution next door added to these worries. Yet that is not how the AK
Party has behaved in office (nor does its steady popularity appear to
reflect any desire for it to turn Turkey into an Islamic state). The
issue on which the Government began to clash with the courts was its
move to overturn the ban on women wearing headscarves in universities.
This might sound, to British ears for example, merely like one of the
eye-catching cases where someone’s desire to wear religious dress
clashed with the rules of their employer or school. But that would be to
underplay the huge symbolic significance of the headscarf in Turkey, as
the emblem of the religiously observant, and the long-standing principle
that those who would not adapt their dress would not have access to
university. It is increasingly hard to square that kind of prohibition
with a modern, liberal democracy of the kind that Turkey has been
becoming. Nor is it fair to portray the AK Party’s desire to make that
one change as the insertion of Islam into the state. Of course, no one
would want to be relaxed about any kind of constitutional change that
might lay the ground for more Islamic-tinged reforms. But it is unfair
to imply that this is the party’s intention, given its six-year record
that has been liberal, more respectful of human rights and interested in
joining the European Union. The courts have been erratic in their
defence of the principle of secularism over the years. The decision by
the chief prosecutor to accept the legal challenge of the opposition and
to move ahead in seeking to ban the entire governing party – not simply
to challenge the headscarf rule – is a disastrous one. It has taken
Turkey towards a confrontation that will be hard to defuse, and almost
certainly, farther from Europe.
Russia Warns Israel Against Tehran Attack
The Nation
(June 24, 2008) -
Russia, one of the world's major powers, has warned of "disasterous
consequences" if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. "If things
happen like threats of force and unilateral sanctions outside the
framework of the [UN] Security Council, it is distracting from the
negotiating process," Vitaly Churkin, Russia's ambassador to the United
Nations, said when asked to comment on a newspaper report about a large
military exercise carried out by Israel this month as a rehearsal for a
bombing attack on Iran. On Saturday, The Washington Post said senior
U.S. officials confirmed that Israel had held a massive operation that
involved the types of warplanes, distances and maneuvers required for
airstrikes on Iran, a story which was first reported by The New York
Times. "A military move would have devastating consequences for the
prospect of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, for the region and
internationally," the Russian ambassador added. The Post said, "The mock
(Israeli) operation reflected a growing policy schism over Iran among
major international players at a time when U.S. politics may freeze
major decisions until a new administration is in place, its officials
are confirmed and a policy review is complete." more...
Israel on the Iran Brink
Wall Street Journal
(June 23, 2008) -
Israel isn't famous for welcoming public scrutiny of its most sensitive
military plans. But we doubt Jerusalem officials were dismayed to see
news of their recent air force exercises splashed over the front pages
of the Western press. Those exercises – reportedly involving about 100
fighters, tactical bombers, refueling planes and rescue helicopters –
were conducted about 900 miles west of Israel's shores in the
Mediterranean. Iran's nuclear facilities at Bushehr, Isfahan and Natanz
all fall roughly within the same radius, albeit in the opposite
direction. The point was not lost on Tehran, which promptly warned of
"strong blows" in the event of a pre-emptive Israeli attack. The more
important question is whether the meaning of Israel's exercise
registered in Western capitals. It's been six years since Iran's secret
nuclear programs were publicly exposed, and Israel has more or less
bided its time as the Bush Administration and Europe have pursued
diplomacy to induce Tehran to cease enriching uranium. It hasn't worked.
Iran has rejected repeated offers of technical and economic assistance,
most recently this month. Despite four years of pleading, the
Administration has failed to win anything but weak U.N. sanctions.
Russia plans to sell advanced antiaircraft missiles to Iran and finish
work on a nuclear reactor at Bushehr, though spent fuel from that
reactor could eventually be diverted and reprocessed into weapons-usable
plutonium. Chinese companies still invest in Iran, while the U.N.'s
chief nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, has repeatedly downplayed
Iran's nuclear threat. As for the U.S., December's publication of a
misleading National Intelligence Estimate that claimed Iran had halted
nuclear weaponization signaled America's own lack of seriousness toward
Iranian ambitions. Barack Obama is leading in the Presidential polls and
portrays as a virtue his promise to negotiate with Iran "without
precondition" – i.e., without insisting that Tehran stop enriching
uranium. All the while Iran continues to enrich, installing thousands of
additional centrifuges of increasingly more sophisticated design while
it buries key facilities underground. No wonder Israel is concluding
that it will have to act on its own to prevent a nuclear Iran. Earlier
this month, Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief of
staff, warned that "if Iran continues with its program for developing
nuclear weapons, we will attack." Other officials distanced themselves
from those remarks, but September's one-shot raid on Syria's nuclear
reactor ought to be proof of Israel's determination. An Israeli strike
on Iran's nuclear sites would of course look nothing like the Syrian
operation. The distances are greater; the targets are hardened, defended
and dispersed; hundreds of sorties and several days would be required.
Iran would retaliate, with the help of Hezbollah and Hamas, possibly
sparking a regional conflict as large as the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Mr.
ElBaradei predicted this weekend that such an attack would turn the
Middle East into a "ball of fire," yet his own apologies for Iran and
the West's diplomatic failures are responsible for bringing the region
to this pass. They have convinced the mullahs that the powers
responsible for maintaining world order lack the will to stop Iran.
Israelis surely don't welcome a war in which they will suffer. Yet they
have no choice but to defend themselves against an enemy that vows to
obliterate them if Iran acquires the weapon to do so. The tragic paradox
of the past six years is that the diplomatic and intelligence evasions
offered in the name of avoiding war with Iran have done the most to
bring us close to this brink. Appeasement that ends in war is a familiar
theme of history.
Fighting for Turkey's soul
International Herald Tribune
(June 10, 2008) - Reading the Western
press, one would think that there is a fight in Turkey between the
democratic - yet religious - governing party and the secular - but
anti-democratic - opposition. This is not the case. The ultimate battle
is for Turkey's soul: Will Turkey become a liberal democracy and remain
an important member of the Euro-Atlantic community, or erode into an
illiberal one, moving towards the Russia-Iran axis? Turkey is undergoing
a complex political and social transformation. It is unique, and thus it
is impossible to understand what is happening in Turkey today by
comparing it with any other Muslim or Western country. Turkey is 99
percent Muslim, yet it was founded in 1923 as a secular republic. The
ending of the caliphate and the Islamic Shariah legal system - thus
separating religion and the state - was a truly revolutionary move. Most
Muslim countries still have Shariah law enshrined in their
constitutions. This has been a huge impediment to their democratic
evolution because Shariah, encoded in the 8th century, is not compatible
with democracy. For its part, Turkey has evolved as a democratic country
because it has kept religion out of politics. The nation's founding
fathers charted the country's course toward the West. However,
succeeding generations failed to spread the values and ideals of the
republic to the masses. The institutions of democracy remained weak and
democratic political culture failed to take root. Today's fight in
Turkey can be described as a power struggle to decide the future of this
unique, Western, democratic, secular-but-Muslim country. The governing
party and its supporters are labeled as "democrats" committed to reforms
and expanding freedoms while those in opposition are branded as "fascist
seculars" resisting change. However, a critical look at the governing
party's record would make clear that, while the government has indeed
undertaken important political and social reforms, these were
overwhelmingly in areas that expanded the freedoms of the conservative
religious base. Little attention has been given to the concerns of
liberal Muslims, such as the Alevi community, which makes up about 20
percent of Turkey's population. Moreover, women are increasingly
disappearing from the work force - except for those areas traditionally
seen as the "women's sphere." For example, the current government has
only one female member. Not surprisingly, she is the Minister
Responsible for Women's Affairs. A recent study found that female
participation in the work force dropped from over 34 percent in 1990 to
just over 22 percent at the end of 2007. Equally disturbing is the
various forms of pressure put on women to "protect" the social fabric.
In many cases sexual harassment or abuse is viewed as the woman's fault
for not having dressed more "Islamic" or for sharing the public space
with men. Another dangerous trend is the systematic undermining of the
military, the judiciary and the education system, the three critical
institutions of Turkey's secular and Western identity. Most recently,
pro-secular rulings by Turkey's highest court (based on the
Constitution) have been labeled as "judiciary coups," even by some
Turkish liberals and their Western supporters. What these
well-intentioned supporters of democracy don't seem to recognize is that
they inadvertently strengthen hard-line Islamists, who argue that the
current legal system is illegitimate and that Muslims need to be ruled
under Shariah. more...
Iran and Syria sign missile pact
Gulf In The Media
(June 2, 2008) - Iran's
Revolutionary Guards Corps has created an independent missile command to
be integrated with a Syrian missile program, military sources said. The
DEBKAfile news agency reported Sunday that the joint command was
formalized in a treaty signed by the Syrian Defense Minister Hassan
Turkmani in Tehran last week. Under the agreement, Syria's missile units
would come under the new Iranian missile section and their operations
would be fully coordinated with Tehran. Iranian officers are to be
attached to Syrian units, while Syrian officers are posted to the
Iranian command. Military sources told DEBKAfile that Iran's control of
four hostile missile fronts would virtually neutralize the American and
Israeli anti-missile defense systems in the region.
'Unavoidable' attack on Iran looms, says Israeli minister
Guardian UK (June
6,
2008) - An Israeli minister has said an attack on Iran's
nuclear sites will be "unavoidable" if Tehran refuses to halt its
alleged weapons programme. In the most explicit threat yet by a member
of Ehud Olmert's government, Shaul Mofaz, a deputy prime minister, said
the hardline Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "would disappear
before Israel does". "If Iran continues with its programme for
developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are
ineffective," Mofaz, who is also Israel's transport minister, said in
comments published today by the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper. "Attacking
Iran in order to stop its nuclear plans will be unavoidable."
Iranian-born Mofaz is a former army chief and defence minister. He is a
member of Olmert's security cabinet and leads regular strategic
coordination talks with the US state department. Iran denies trying to
build nuclear weapons and has defied western pressure to abandon uranium
enrichment. The leadership in Tehran has threatened that if attacked the
country will retaliate against Israel - believed to have the Middle
East's only nuclear arsenal - and American targets in the region.
Ahmadinejad has repeatedly called for Israel to be wiped off the map
since becoming president. On Monday, he said Israel was "about to die
and will soon be erased from the geographical scene". Olmert met the US
president, George Bush, on Wednesday to discuss concerns over Iran. The
Israeli prime minister, who is being pressured to resign over a
corruption scandal, has said that Iran's nuclear threat "must be stopped
by all possible means". Israeli planes bombed Syria in September,
destroying what the US administration said was a partly built nuclear
reactor using North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.
UN inspectors announced this week that they would be visiting Syria to
investigate the American claim. Interesting having just watched
I Will Turn Thee Back: Turkey At A Crossroads by Avi Lipkin...
Turkey, Iran Coordinating Action Against Kurdish Rebels: report
Africasia.com
(June 5,
2008) - Turkey and Iran have carried out simultaneous
military action against separatist Kurdish rebels holed up in northern
Iraq and are sharing intelligence, a Turkish general was quoted as
saying Thursday. "When they start action, we also do... They carry out
operations from the Iranian side of the border and we do so from the
Turkish side," land forces commander Ilker Basbug said, the CNN Turk
news channel reported on its web site. The general said no such
coordinated action had taken place in the past two months, but that it
could be launched again in the future. Separatist Kurdish militants of
both Turkish and Iranian origin take refuge in the mountains of northern
Iraq, where the frontiers of the three countries meet, and use camps
there as a launching pad for attacks into Turkey and Iran. "We are
working in coordination with Iran in the region... We are sharing
information," Basbug said. Turkish and Iranian forces often shell rebel
positions across the border. Since December, Turkey has also carried out
several bombing raids in northern Iraq and in February conducted a
week-long ground offensive against camps of the separatist Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) there. The PKK, which has waged a bloody campaign
for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey, is closely associated with
Iran's Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which has recently
stepped up attacks on the Iranian security forces. Turkey and Iran have
been helping each other on security matters, primarily to stop the
movement of rebels across their porous border, since they signed a
cooperation agreement in the late 1990s. Turkish media have reported
that the two neighbours hammered out a fresh deal in April involving
intelligence sharing. Following an air raid against PKK camps in
northern Iraq in May, the Turkish army said senior rebel commander Cemil
Bayik fled into a neighbouring country together with a large group of
militants, engaging in clashes with local security forces. The army did
not name the country, but it is believed to be Iran. It said that its
security forces killed many of Bayik's bodyguards, with the commander's
fate unknown. Listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the
international community, the PKK has been fighting for self-rule in
Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast since 1984. The conflict has claimed
more than 37,000 lives.
Defense sources: Syria arming Hezbollah, despite Israel talks
Haaretz
(June 4,
2008) - Syria is continuing to supply the Lebanon-based
Hezbollah organization with large amounts of weapons, missiles and
rockets even as it conducts indirect negotiations with Israel, defense
officials in Jerusalem told Army Radio on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Syrian
President Bashar Assad said Monday in a series of interviews that
resumed peace talks with Israel hinge on the current cabinet remaining
in power in Jerusalem. In interviews he gave to newspaper editors in the
United Arab Emirates, Assad said: "The success of the talks depend on
the Israeli side and is tied to the Israeli government's ability and how
stable it is." According to one report, Assad said direct talks would
begin only next year, though Syria is not opposed in principle. "We
explained our vision for peace, and we are waiting for the Israeli
response. However, our previous attempt to negotiate with Israel was not
encouraging, and what we are doing now is to verify that Israel is ready
for peace," he said. Defense Minister Ehud Barak referred to the
indirect talks with Syria while touring the northern border Tuesday.
"With the Syrians, feelers are being put out to check whether there is a
possibility of opening direct negotiations and discussing in that
framework all of the topics about which we will have to make tough
decisions and make concessions, but it cuts both ways. These will be
tough decisions from Assad's perspective and also ours," Barak said.
Referring to Syria's "intimate" cooperation with Hezbollah, including
helping to arm it," Barak said "the supreme responsibility in our view
falls on Hezbollah, on the one hand, and Syria and Iran, on the other."
Ahmadinejad says Israel will soon disappear
Breitbart.com
(June 2,
2008) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted on
Monday that Muslims would uproot "satanic powers" and repeated his
controversial belief that Israel will soon disappear, the Mehr news
agency reported. "I must announce that the Zionist regime (Israel), with
a 60-year record of genocide, plunder, invasion and betrayal is about to
die and will soon be erased from the geographical scene," he said.
"Today, the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United States
has come and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power
and wealth has started." Since taking the presidency in August 2005,
Ahmadinejad has repeatedly provoked international outrage by predicting
Israel is doomed to disappear. "I tell you that with the unity and
awareness of all the Islamic countries all the satanic powers will soon
be destroyed," he said to a group of foreign visitors ahead of the 19th
anniversary of the death of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini. Ahmadinejad also again expressed his apocalyptic vision that
tyranny in the world be abolished by the return to earth of the Mahdi,
the 12th imam of Shiite Islam, alongside great religious figures
including Jesus Christ. "With the appearance of the promised saviour...
and his companions such as Jesus Christ, tyranny will be soon be
eradicated in the world." Ahmadinejad has always been a devotee of the
Mahdi, who Shiites believe disappeared more than a thousand years ago
and who will return one day to usher in a new era of peace and harmony.
His emphasis on the Mahdi has been a cause of controversy inside Iran
with critics saying he would be better solving bread-and-butter domestic
problems rather than talking about Iran's divine responsibility.
SYRIA: Israeli hopes for a Tehran-Damascus rift collapse
Los Angeles Times
(May 2008) - Iranian and Syrian officials poured a bucket of ice water this week
on Israeli hopes for a rupture in the long-standing Tehran-Damascus
relationship. Israeli officials had demanded Syria break ties with Iran in
exchange for returning the occupied Golan Heights to Syria. Instead, Syria this
week appeared to strengthen its ties with Iran, signing a
defense cooperation pact in a showy Tehran photo-op on Tuesday. That
same day, Syrian President Bashar Assad
told a visiting delegation of
British
lawmakers that Damascus' relationship with Tehran was not up for
negotiation. In reality, despite a lot of media attention, there was never
really much chance of a peace deal between Syria and Israel or a break in ties
between Damascus and Tehran. At least not anytime soon. Israeli and Syrian
leaders
admitted this month that the two countries were engaged in peace talks
mediated by Turkey. Almost immediately, the Israeli foreign minister said Syria
would have
to
cut ties with Iran, and its allies Hezbollah and Hamas, before Israel
would consider making peace and handing back the Golan Heights. A Western
diplomat in Damascus closely tracking the indirect Syria-Israel talks bluntly
called any hopes of dangling the Golan Heights (a hilly plateau about the size
of Los Angeles County) to drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran "a
non-starter." A more realistic strategy might be to try to persuade Syria to
temper the behavior of Hamas and Hezbollah, which both fight Israel. "The
Syrians won't want to lose Hezbollah, but can moderate Hezbollah," said the
diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Syrians don't have control over
Hamas and Hezbollah, but they have influence. Syria might have veto power." In
any case, few insiders believed a breakthrough between Israel and Syria was
imminent. The diplomat said Assad doesn't anticipate any new deals before
summer 2009, after President Bush is out of office. "Bashar has been clear that
he didn't really want to negotiate. He's preparing everything for the next
American administration. If the next American administration is ready to
guarantee a deal, then they'll be ready." But Israel may also be part of the
problem. A majority of Israelis are
reluctant to give up the Golan Heights, which has become a
463-square-mile resort destination as well as a strategic buffer, even for a
peace deal with Damascus. Over 41 years of occupation, they've grown
to love the Golan
Heights.
US: Iranian warhead blueprint 'alarming'
The Jerusalem Post
(May 29, 2008) - A ranking International Atomic Energy Agency official called
Teheran's possession of a drawing showing how to make part of an atomic warhead
"alarming" Thursday and said the onus is on Iran to prove it had not tried to
develop nuclear arms, said diplomats attending a closed briefing. The US said
the evidence detailed by IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen increased
concerns that Teheran had tried to make such weapons. "Today's briefing showed
... strong reasons to suspect that Iran was working covertly and deceitfully at
least until recently to build a bomb," Gregory L. Schulte, the chief US delegate
to the agency, told reporters. Rejecting the allegation, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh,
Schulte's Iranian counterpart, again dismissed the evidence as "baseless and
fabricated documents and papers." Separately, a senior diplomat suggested the
agency was not accepting as fact US intelligence estimates that the Islamic
Republic stopped active pursuit of nuclear weapons five years ago. Queried on
documents in the agency's possession possibly linked to research in such weapons
and bearing dates into early 2004, he told The Associated Press that the IAEA
was reserving its judgment on whether they indicated nuclear weapons work past
2003 until it finished its own investigations. The documents, outlined in an
IAEA report forwarded Monday to the UN Security Council and agency board
members, are part of evidence provided by board member nations to the agency for
its investigation into allegations that Iran used the cover of peaceful nuclear
activities to conduct research and testing on a nuclear arms program. more…
Turkey In Between: Syria-Israel & Georgia-Russia
Poli Gazette
(May 27, 2008) - Adding to its much coveted
resume as “Europe’s bridge to the Middle East”, Turkey has now been officially
recognized as the facilitator of talks between Israel and Syria. Whether or not
the Israeli media agrees with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s motivations for
publicizing the existence of talks, Turkey can at least shine in the warm
spotlight of international recognition for a few weeks. While most Turkish
diplomatic activity in the Arab Middle East other than with Iraq follows a
mechanical approach, Turkey’s role as a mediator between Israel and Syria is
uncharacteristically complex. There exists a very clear logic behind Turkey’s
effort to mingle in the affairs of these two countries. Compared to its
relationship with neighbor Iran, Turkey’s rapport with Syria is relatively
underdeveloped. Perhaps the most significant reason for this is the incredible
backwardness of Syria’s Baathist state-controlled economy, which is also
responsible for the incredible backwardness of Syria’s regional foreign policy.
Syria’s problematic approach last affected Turkey in a dramatic way in 1998.
Syria gave refuge to PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, much to the disgrace of Turkish
public opinion that had designated Ocalan as a terrorist. Syria would ultimately
harbor the Kurdish leader in Damascus until the threat of a Turkish invasion
successfully forced his eviction. In comparison, Turkey’s rapport with Israel
has proved quite dynamic. Successive Turkish governments and the Turkish
military have pursued a symbiotic relationship with Israel despite the risk of
alienating Turkey even further in the eyes of the Arab World. Both countries,
similarly focused on linking themselves with the West, have cooperated through
military exchanges and natural resource transfers. In addition, Turkey hopes to
court the sympathy of the Israeli lobby in Washington as a means of
counter-balancing the influence of the Armenian lobby on American foreign
policy. While no observer could claim that Turkey’s efforts will actually make a
significant difference in solving the issues that separate Israel and Syria,
Turkey’s actions will help it acquire some additional credibility with pundits
who influence EU opinion. This alone could be reason for Turkey to exert its
diplomatic energy. The highly involved nature of Turkey’s interest in affairs
south of its border stands in tremendous contrast with its attitudes concerning
the tumultuous political situation to its north-east. Turkey has chosen a
relatively silent course as Georgia struggles to deal with breakaway Abkhazia
and omnipresent Russia. (On Monday, the UN announced that a Russian jet did
indeed shoot down a Georgian unmanned surveillance drone patrolling over
Abkhazia.) Other than its relations with Armenia, which are “very well” defined,
Turkey’s diplomatic intentions in the greater Caucasus region and Central Asia
have been unclear ever since the failure of its Pan-Turkism initiative in the
1990s. While Turkish construction companies and textile producers have been keen
to acquire contracts and conduct foreign direct investment projects, Turkey’s
main interest in the region has been its role as a conduit for Central Asian
energy exports to Europe and beyond. Turkey’s energy interests in Central Asia
have understandably run counter to those of Russia, which are monopolistic by
nature. more…
Iran's Ahmadinejad wants closer Syria defence ties
Reuters
(May 26,
2008) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Monday
for closer defence ties with Syria, the official IRNA news agency
reported, a few days after Israel urged Damascus to distance itself from
Tehran. "So far Iran's and Syria's joint and mutual relations in various
fields have been of utmost usefulness and defence relations must expand
to the extent possible," he told visiting Syrian Defence Minister Hassan
Turkmani. The IRNA report gave no further details on military
cooperation between the two Middle East countries, which the United
States accuses of sponsoring terrorism. Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa
Mohammad Najjar described Syria on Sunday as a strategic ally. Pieter
Wezeman, a researcher on conventional arms transfers at the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), said Syria and Iran had
military relations but their secretive nature made it difficult to say
how substantial they were. He said Iran was believed to supply Syria
mainly with ammunition but there were reports of other kinds of military
cooperation. "It is extremely difficult to find any reliable
information," Wezeman said by telephone from Stockholm. more...
Ahmadinejad sure Syria will press struggle against Israel
AFP
(May 26,
2008) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday that he
remains confident Iran's close ally Syria will keep up the struggle
against Israel despite its announcement of renewed peace negotiations.
"I am sure that the Syrian leadership will manage the situation with
wisdom and will not abandon the front line until the complete removal of
the Zionist threats," Ahmadinejad told visiting Syrian Defence Minister
Hassan Turkmani. "So far the cooperation between Iran and Syria in
different areas has been beneficial for both sides and our defence ties
should be expanded as far as possible," the official IRNA news agency
quoted the president as saying. Turkmani's visit is the first to Iran by
a Syrian official since Syria and Israel announced last Wednesday that
they had resumed indirect peace negotiations through Turkish mediators,
ending an eight-year freeze. Turkmani held talks on Sunday with his
Iranian counterpart Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, during which the Iranian
side underlined the importance of "collective security". Ahmadinejad
stressed that Iran would continue its longstanding policy of supporting
"the oppressed Palestinian people." "Supporting the Palestinian people
means supporting regional security, as the Palestinians are in the front
line of the Zionists' aggression," he said. Iran does not recognise
Israel and has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause since
the 1979 Islamic revolution. Ahmadinejad has drawn international
condemnation by calling for the Jewish state to be wiped from the map.
On Saturday, Syria rejected any preconditions to the new peace
negotiations with Israel involving either breaking its three-decade
alliance with Iran or ending its support for Lebanese and Palestinian
militant groups. Israeli officials have in the past conditioned any
peace deal with Syria on its agreement to end both. Iranian analysts saw
in Turkmani's visit proof that the three-decade-old alliance between
Tehran and Damascus remained intact despite the renewed peace
negotiations. more...
The September War
WorldNet Daily (May 23,
2008) - According to a number of sources, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
is planning to bring his first reactor on line sometime in September
2008, which is just about in line with what the Israeli Mossad had
estimated back in 2003 when the full extent of Iran's secret nuclear
program became known. The Iranian announcement came on the heels of a
surprise announcement by the government of Israel confirming it had
entered into third-party peace talks with Syria's Bashar Assad. The
surprising confirmation on Wednesday was the first acknowledged contact
between the two parties in eight years, which will be mediated by
Turkey. Equally surprising was a statement from the United States saying
it had no objection to the talks. Previously, the U.S. had rejected any
peace overtures toward Syria as long as it was sponsoring Hezbollah and
Hamas. In fact, President Bush seemed to have been blindsided by the
news. According to transcripts of an interview he granted to the
Jerusalem Post, Bush responded to the news by stammering; "I expect an
explanation, but I'm – he made a decision that he made – or no decisions
have been made, except the idea of trying to get some dialogue moving,
which is – and I know him well, and know that he is as concerned about
Israeli security as any other person that's ever been the prime minister
of Israel. And so I presume the decision is made." Despite the White
House's official welcome of the news, privately, officials were furious.
The New York Times quoted an "anonymous" (of course) "administration
official" who called Israel's unilateral move "a slap in the face."
While Damascus and Jerusalem talk peace, Iranian-backed Hezbollah
consolidated the gains it made in fighting against government forces in
the streets of Beirut and elsewhere. After six days of mediation between
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, Hezbollah emerged a clear winner
in a settlement agreement in which Hezbollah was granted veto rights
over the government, affirming its stature as "the preponderant military
actor and the super political power in Lebanon," according to political
scientist Hilal Khashan of the American University of Beirut. Khashan
told the AFP that "it was an excellent deal for the Hezbollah-led
opposition and a major defeat for the U.S.-backed government." The deal
was brokered by the Qatari government. The Arab League played a major
part in securing the deal, with both Syria and Iran declaring their
support for Hezbollah's victory. Under the arrangement, Parliament will
elect as president the current head of the Lebanese Army, Gen. Michel
Suleiman. Gen. Suleiman will then appoint a new government – one in
which Hezbollah holds enough seats to veto any decisions it doesn't like
– such as disarming Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israeli military sources say
that Iran is continuing to ship weapons and ammunition, via Hezbollah,
to the Hamas-occupied Gaza Strip, including rockets, missiles and rocket
launchers. According to the Mossad, these shipments have been stepped up
in recent months, reaching a peak in March-April. Using fishing boats,
Iran has successfully smuggled Iranian-made 120 mm mortars with a range
of up to six miles. The Mossad says that the smuggling operation is
overseen by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard using Syrian ports and
Hezbollah operatives. Meanwhile, back in Israel, Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert is fighting desperately to keep his job while he is under
investigation by police on charges of obtaining money by fraud, breach
of trust, money laundering and tax offenses, according to Haartez. And
fears are rampant within Israeli circles that Olmert may be considering
trading the Golan Heights in exchange for a peace deal he can trumpet to
deflect attention away from his legal problems.
If one sits down and connects the dots, one ends up with a very
different picture than the one being presented by the mainstream media
suggesting the Syrian-Israeli talks are representative of a major
breakthrough. It is worth remembering that it was the Persians who
invented chess, and Ahmadinejad seems to be controlling all the pieces.
In the first place, Ahmadinejad knows that Israel will attack its
reactor the moment that they take it on line. He's been arming and
training Hamas to serve as its proxy in the event of war, to harass the
IDF on its flanks. To the north in Lebanon, Ahmadinejad has succeeded in
rearming and re-equipping Hezbollah since the Lebanon War in 2006. The
Mossad estimates Hezbollah is stronger now than it was before Israel
invaded. Hezbollah has succeeded, for all intents and purposes, in
taking over the Lebanese government. Hamas controls all of the Gaza
Strip. Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority barely has a handle on the
West Bank – and in any event, would turn on Israel the second the
opportunity presented itself. Syria's insistence on the return of the
Golan Heights as a precondition for peace is a Trojan Horse –
particularly considering the timing. It was only last September that
Israel destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor that was only weeks from being
operational. Syria has built one of the most formidable arsenals of
missiles and rockets in the region, all of them aimed at Israel. From
the Golan Heights, Syria would control much of northern Israel, as it
did prior to losing the Golan to Israel in the Six Days War. Israel is
therefore surrounded with Hezbollah and Syria to the north, Hamas on
both flanks, with al-Qaida sympathizers flooding in through Egypt and
Jordan. Everything is in place for war except the pretext to start
things off. Starting up a nuclear reactor will do nicely.
Let's also not forget...
Report: Israel threatened to target Syria if
Hezbollah attacks
Syrian military delegation arrives in Moscow
RIA Novosti
(May 19,
2008) - A group of Syrian military officials arrived in
Moscow on Monday to discuss prospects for bilateral military and
technical cooperation, a Russian Air Force spokesman said. During the
five-day visit, the delegation led by Syrian Air Force and Air Defense
Commander Gen. Akhmad Al Ratyb will meet with Russian Defense Ministry
and Air Force officials, visit several military units and defense
industry plants, Col. Alexander Drobyshevsky said. Russia's Kommersant
newspaper earlier wrote that Moscow and Damascus had agreed on
deliveries of the latest Russian MiG-29SMT fighter. Syria also bought 36
Pantsir S1E air-defense systems from Russia, and hopes to receive
Strelets short-range air defense systems, Iskander tactical missile
systems, Yak-130 aircraft, and two Amur-1650 submarines. Israel and the
U.S. are sensitive about Russian-Syrian military and technical
cooperation, fearing not only a reinforcement of Syria's Armed Forces,
but also the possibility that modern weapons could fall into the hands
of Hezbollah fighters and Iran, in violation of the existing
international embargo.
ANALYSIS / Price of quiet in Lebanon is Hezbollah in power
Haaretz
(May 26, 2008)
- The smiles,
handshakes and congratulations that followed the election of
Lebanese President Michel Suleiman yesterday were unable to erase
questions and fears over what Hezbollah has in store for the
country, and the region as a whole. That is because the lovely
principle of "no victor, no vanquished," as the emir of Qatar
described the deal reached in Doha that allowed for Suleiman's
election, does not reflect reality. Lebanon did manage to engage the
emergency brake before spiraling into civil war, and can even look
forward to a period of relative quiet. But the price is liable to be
Hezbollah's long-term de facto control of Lebanon. Suleiman's
election is not the product of a democratic compromise between a
majority and an opposition; it is the product of threats and
violence. The fancy swearing-in ceremony yesterday could not have
taken place without the agreement of Hezbollah, which delayed the
selection of a president by seven months. Hezbollah conditioned its
acceptance on the establishment of a national unity government in
which it and its partners will have 11 ministers. This grants
Hezbollah veto power over key government decisions, since the
Lebanese constitution requires important decisions to be approved by
a two-thirds majority. Hezbollah also won a change in the elections
law, which gives its supporters a much greater chance of getting
their candidates into parliament in the election planned for next
year. In addition, the question of Hezbollah's right to function as
an autonomous militia has been removed from the agenda, replaced by
a declaration that Hezbollah's guns will never again be aimed at
fellow Lebanese. And without the agreement of the Lebanese
government, any international attempt to disarm Hezbollah will be
seen as illegitimate. Suleiman thanked Arab leaders, especially the
emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani. But without the
agreements reached between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah, Suleiman would
not have been elected president. Hezbollah also determined the most
convenient place for negotiations - not Saudi Arabia or Egypt, which
are allies of the Lebanese government, but Qatar, whose emir was the
first Arab leader to visit a Shi'ite neighborhood in Beirut that had
been bombed by Israel, and who donated a lot of money to rebuild it.
Hezbollah could have celebrated twice yesterday - once to mark eight
years since the Israel Defense Forces withdrew from Lebanon, and a
second time over having laid the cornerstone of its political
domination of the country. Syria is not dissatisfied with this
victory, but understands that Hezbollah is not a Syrian
organization. Damascus may yet miss the days when it controlled
Lebanon directly, without having to rely on a group whose loyalty
depends on its own interests rather than being driven by ideology.
Now, after Hezbollah's great political victory, it is no longer
clear who depends on whom. In the Saudi-Iranian struggle over
regional hegemony, Tehran can chalk up another victory. It seems to me that if the
Magog invasion comes from the North, that Lebanon is the key to
funneling the troops that God will destroy in the mountains of
Israel into Israel. Keep watching events with Syria as well as
Russia, Libya, Turkey and Iran this summer.
'Iran to give Hamas more arms, funds'
The Jerusalem Post
(May 25, 2008)
- Iran has promised
Hamas new rockets and more funds, an expression of the Islamic
Republic's displeasure with recent news of renewed Israeli-Syrian
peace talks, the London-based newspaper, Asharq Alawsat reported on
Sunday. According to the report, Syria-based Hamas leader Khaled
Mashaal, who held a press conference in Teheran with Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Saturday, expressed his concern over
statements issued simultaneously by Jerusalem, Damascus and Ankara
last Wednesday in which a renewal of talks between Syria and Israel
under Turkish mediation was declared. Mashaal reportedly told his
Iranian hosts that despite commitments he was given by Damascus that
peace with Israel would not come at the expense of Syria's ties with
Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, he was still aware of the fact that Syria
would have to make some concessions. He emphasized that he
understood that Syria could not sign a peace agreement with Israel,
exchange ambassadors, end the state of war and make the Golan
Heights demilitarized and at the same time continue to allow Iran to
use its territory to transfer weapons to Hizbullah, train Hamas and
Islamic Jihad terrorists and help in the financing of those groups.
An Iranian source told the paper that in light of Mashaal's fears,
Iranian regime officials promised the head of Hamas's political
bureau that Iran would continue supporting Hamas financially,
materially and morally, even if Syria would turn its back on the
organization for the sake of an agreement with Israel. According to
the source, the Iranians had even elaborated what that support would
be: Newer, upgraded rockets and an increase in the budget allotted
to Hamas to $150 million in the second half of 2008. A source in the
office of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Mashaal
was promised that Iran would supply every support his organization
might need, be it weapons, finance, or military training. Iran's
defense minister also expressed confidence on Sunday that
negotiations would not hamper the strong alliance between Teheran
and Damascus, the Iranian FARS news agency reported. Labeling Syria
a strategic ally of Iran, Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammed Nejad
called on "Islamic states to strengthen their relations in order to
defend themselves against the dangers which threaten the region."
Olmert: We're facing a historic agreement with Syria
The question is, will Syria go against their
Islamic roots and diplomatic and defensive ties with Iran? Or could
this be a ploy to take advantage of a perceived weakness in Israeli
leadership looking for some kind of political progress? Could Israel
discovering true intentions lead to the destruction of Damascus and
that trigger the coalitions to defend Syria?
Iran tells Syria must regain control of Golan
YNet News
(May 24, 2008)
- Syrian Defense
Minister Hassan Turkmani arrived in Tehran on Saturday evening as
part of Damascus' bid to reassure its Iranian ally after resuming
peace negotiations with Israel. General Turkmani is scheduled to
meet with his Iranian counterpart, Mustafa Mohammad-Najjar, and
additional key figures in Tehran. A possible meeting with President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has not yet been confirmed. In a meeting he held
earlier on Saturday with Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal,
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki publically addressed the
renewed talks for the first time. "The Golan belongs to Syria and
must be returned to its control. The Zionist regime must withdraw
from the Golan, and we support Syrian efforts to repossess the
Heights." The Syrian defense minister's visit to Tehran follow
reports of Ahmadinejad's outrage over the contact between Israel and
Syria. Sources close to the Iranian president told the London-based
Asharq al-Awsat daily that Ahmadinejad has made his discontent over
the clandestine negotiations well known. He described the talks as a
"flagrant violation" of the mutual commitments between Syria and
Iran. Meanwhile, Damascus as reiterated its rejection of Israel's
demand that it sever ties with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas as a key
condition of any peace agreement. During a joint press conference
Mashaal held with Mottaki after their meeting, the exiled Hamas
leader was careful not to criticize the negotiations. He did say
however that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert lacks the political might to
make the moves necessary for peace with Syria. "There is great
skepticism concerning (Israel's) seriousness to return the Golan,"
Mashaal said. "It's
maneuvering and playing all the (negotiation) tracks – this is a
well known game and besides, Olmert's weakness will not allow him to
take this step." He was referring to the current ongoing
investigation against Olmert, who has recently been suspected of
receiving money unlawfully. Mashaal said he
was sure the renewed talks would not come at the expense of the
Palestinian track. Related News:
Syria refuses to sever ties with Iran
Russia's Putin Pledges to Buttress Ties with Libya
The Jerusalem Post
(May 22, 2008)
- Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday promised Libya's leader Moamer
Gathafi that Moscow would buttress economic and military ties with
Tripoli, the government news service said. Putin and Gathafi spoke
on the telephone and agreed to continue "the useful confidential
dialogue between the two countries and noted mutual interest in
boosting cooperation in both civil and military spheres," a
statement said. Putin "stressed the need to realize the accords
cinched during the recent Russo-Libyan summit and affirmed that as
prime minister he intended to give it all due attention," it added.
Libya has had its debt to the Soviet Union waived in return for
important contracts to Russian companies. These include the Russian
state railroad company's plans to construct a 600-kilometre
(375-mile) rail link between the cities of Syrte and Benghazi, which
is estimated to cost over two billion euros. The two countries also
signed four accords on economic and financial cooperation, exchange
of confidential information and promotion and protection of
investments. Libya had been an important ally of the Soviet Union
and a faithful client of Soviet arms. However, ties between the two
nations cooled after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Israel: Russia may be selling Syria arms
The Jerusalem Post
(May 21, 2008)
- Fearing that
Damascus is acquiring advanced military platforms, Israel is closely
following meetings being held in Moscow this week between a
high-level Syrian military delegation and Russian Defense Ministry
officials. Senior government officials in Jerusalem said they have
been aware for several days of the Syrians' upcoming visit to the
Russian capital but that it was not yet clear which military
platforms Damascus was requesting. According to reports in the
Russian media, the delegation, led by Syrian Air Force commander
Gen. Akhmad al-Ratyb, will be in Moscow for five days and meet with
Russian Defense Ministry and Air Force officials, as well as visit
several military bases and units. According to the reports, the
talks will focus on arms sales - including submarines, anti-aircraft
missiles, the latest model MiG fighter jets and advanced
surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. Israel is particularly
concerned with a Syrian request for long-range S-300 surface-to-air
missiles that could threaten IAF jets flying on the Israeli side of
the Golan Heights. The S-300 is one of the best multi-target
anti-aircraft-missile systems in the world and reportedly can track
100 targets simultaneously while engaging 12 at the same time. Syria
recently received 36 Pantsir S1E air-defense systems from Russia.
Iran is believed to have already procured several S-300 systems to
protect its nuclear facilities. Israeli defense officials expressed
grave concern over the possibility that Syria would obtain these new
military platforms. Damascus, the officials said, had dramatically
increased defense spending recently. In the past three years, Syria
has spent more than $3 billion on weapons, up from less than $100
million in 2002. Officials said that Israel was working
diplomatically with Moscow to prevent the sales, but that for the
right amount of money, Russia would likely approve the sales in any
case. Israel is also extremely concerned about a possible sale of
the Iskander surface-to-surface missile system. The Iskander,
Israeli weapons experts said Tuesday, was the heir to the Scud and
was far superior to the ballistic missiles currently in Syria's
arsenal. The Iskander is propelled by solid fuel and has a range of
300 kilometers, with accuracy of about 20 meters. "This would
without a doubt be a major threat to Israel," one Israeli expert
said. Lastly, Syria is also reportedly interested in buying two
Amur-1650 submarines from Russia. The Amur 1650 is a diesel-electric
operated vessel and reportedly can strike salvo missile blows at
multiple targets simultaneously. Syria has a navy but does not have
operational submarines. more... Keep watching!
Russia: A totalitarian regime in thrall to a Tsar who's creating the
new Fascist empire
Daily Mail
(May 17, 2008)
- As ex-President
Putin settles in to his new role as Prime Minister, he has every
reason to congratulate himself. After all, he has not only written
the script for his constitutional coup d'etat, but staged the play
and given himself the starring role as well. Of course, he has given
a walk-on role to Dmitry Medvedev, his personally anointed
successor. But the transfer of power from Putin to his Little Sir
Echo, Medvedev, and the show of military strength with those
soldiers and clapped-out missiles in Red Square on Victory Day which
followed it last week, made it clear who is really in charge. No
decision of any significance for the Russian people or the rest of
us will be made in the foreseeable future without the say - so of
Medvedev's unsmiling master. Just before he stood down as President,
Putin declared: "I have worked like a galley slave throughout these
eight years, morning til night, and I have given all I could to this
work. I am happy with the results." As he surveys the nation today
he reminds me of that chilling poem by Ted Hughes, Hawk Roosting, in
which the dreaded bird sits at the top of a tall tree musing: "Now I
hold all Creation in my foot - I kill as I please because it is all
mine - I am going to keep things like this." In a way he is right to
be so self-satisfied. He has told the Russian people that life is
much better than it was before he took over - and, after a journey
of some 10,000 miles across the largest country in the world for a
new book and BBC TV series, I am in no doubt that the majority of
his subjects believe him. I travelled from cities to towns to
villages by road, rail and boat and met a great diversity of people
- from St Petersburg glitterati to impoverished potato-pickers, from
a witch who charms the sprites of the forest to the mountain
herdsmen who worship fire and water, from oilmen to woodcutters. It
was an exhilarating and revelatory experience in a land of extremes.
But it was also deeply disturbing. Despite the fact that Putin's
Russia is increasingly autocratic and irredeemably corrupt, the man
himself - their born-again Tsar - is overwhelmingly regarded as the
answer to the nation's prayers. In a nation that has not tasted and
- with very few exceptions - does not expect or demand justice or
freedom, all that matters is stability and security. And, to a
degree, Putin has delivered these twin blessings. But the price has
been exorbitant and the Russians have been criminally short-changed.
Putin boasts that since he came into office investment in the
Russian economy has increased sevenfold (reaching $82.3 billion in
2007) and that the country's GDP has risen by more than 70 per cent.
Over the same period, average real incomes have more than doubled.
But they started from a very low base and they could have done far
better. Nor is this growth thanks either to the Kremlin's leadership
or a surge of entrepreneurial energy. On the contrary, it is almost
solely down to Russia's vast reserves of oil and gas.
Stricken with an epidemic
of AIDS and alcoholism which both contribute to a male life
expectancy of 58 years, the population is projected to shrink from
145 million to 120 million within a few decades. So where has all
the oil wealth gone? According to an Independent Experts Report,
written by two former high-level Kremlin insiders who have had the
courage to speak out, "a criminal system of government [has] taken
shape under Putin" in which the Kremlin has been selling state
assets cheaply to Putin's cronies and buying others assets back from
them at an exorbitant price. Among such dubious transactions the
authors cite the purchase by the state-owned Gasprom (run until a
few months ago by Dmitry Medvedev) of a 75 per cent share in an oil
company called Sifnet (owned by Roman Abramovich, the oligarch who
owns Chelsea Football Club). In 1995 Abramovich, one of Putin's
closest allies, paid a mere $100 million for Sifnet; ten years
later, the government shelled out $13.7 billion for it - an
astronomical sum and far above the going market rate. The threat of
prosecution for tax fraud is the Kremlin's weapon of choice against
anyone who dares to challenge its hegemony. When Mikhail
Khodorkovsky, once the richest man in Russia, used his oil wealth to
promote human rights and democracy, Putin detected a threat to his
throne. The oligarch was duly arrested and convicted of fraud. He
now languishes in a Siberian jail where he is in the third year of
an eight-year prison sentence. None of this is a matter of public
debate in Russia where the media has been muzzled by the Kremlin,
their freedom of expression stifled by the government. Almost every
national radio and television station is now controlled directly or
indirectly by the state, and the same applies to every newspaper of
any influence. In the heady days immediately before and after the
collapse of the Soviet empire, editors and reporters competed to
challenge the mighty and to uncover scandal and corruption. Now they
cower from the wrath of the state and its agents in the police and
the security services. That diminishing number who have the courage
to investigate or speak out against the abuses perpetrated by the
rich and powerful very soon find themselves out of a job - or, in an
alarming number of cases, on the receiving end of a deadly bullet.
Some 20 Russian journalists have been killed in suspicious
circumstances since Putin came to office. No one has yet been
convicted for any of these crimes. Putin calls the system over which
he presides "sovereign democracy". I think a better term is "cryptofascism"
- though even the Kremlin's few critics in Russia recoil when I
suggest this.
Hezbollah in dangerous territory
BBC News
(May 16, 2008)
- Hezbollah's
lightning offensive against West Beirut and the Druze mountains
brought home violently what everybody already knew: that it is
far stronger than any other force in the land, including the
Lebanese Army. Its advances on the ground, and the
Western-backed government's humiliating capitulation over its two
rescinded decisions, were hailed in the Shia areas as glorious
victories, and celebrated with jubilation. In one way, the
Hezbollah escalation and the ensuing crisis has helped to unblock
the deadlock that has paralysed Lebanese politics for the past 18
months. It triggered an Arab League initiative, led by Qatar, to
defuse the crisis. The initiative provided the vehicle for an
agreement on the immediate start of a political dialogue, something
that has been absent for quite some time. But the full consequences
of the worst violence since the civil war in the 1970s and 1980s
have yet to be gauged. So too has the extent to which Hezbollah's
undoubted supremacy on the ground can translate into political
gains. The onslaught unleashed by the Hezbollah leader, Sayed Hassan
Nasrallah, just minutes after his televised address on 8 May, saw
his movement plunge along a bloody and dangerous course he always
vowed it would never follow. Hezbollah crushed all opposition in
West Beirut from Sunni supporters of the government in a matter of
hours on that Thursday night. On 11 May, it pounded the hills
south-east of Beirut until the Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, agreed
to lay down arms and hand over to the Lebanese Army. But
Hezbollah had turned its guns against fellow-Lebanese, something
Hassan Nasrallah said would never happen. It also stirred up a
hornets' nest of sectarian hatreds and very real fears of another
outbreak of uncontainable civil strife. Hassan Nasrallah always
reassured those anxious about Hezbollah's growing power that he
would never allow that to happen. During the brief period when
his fighters and a motley array of allied Syrian-backed militias
left over from the civil war erupted into the streets of West
Beirut, they burned a television station and a newspaper office, and
ransacked and closed down other media outlets owned by their
adversaries, especially the Sunni leader Saad Hariri. That led to
fears among many Lebanese that what was under threat was not just
the political balance, but a way of life - the strong Lebanese
tradition of media freedom and social liberalism that somehow
survived all previous upheavals, and made Lebanon for decades a
haven for the region's political exiles. So Hezbollah and its allies
now enter the political contest hoping that the message of their
military "victories" against vastly inferior forces will mean a
greater chance of getting what they want - at least veto power in a
new national unity government, an issue that has snagged all
previous efforts to reach agreement. Hezbollah won two elements in
the current package agreement mediated by the Arab delegation:
But those immediate gains
for Hezbollah and its allies were balanced by two elements in the
Arab-mediated agreement positive for the government side, possibly
implying that Hezbollah's political position has been damaged by its use
of resistance arms in the domestic arena and the Pandora's box that
swung open as a result. These were: So the issue of
Hezbollah's weaponry, which it - unlike all other militias - was allowed
to keep at the end of the civil war on the grounds that it was a
resistance movement against Israeli occupation, is now centre-stage, as
a result of its being turned against fellow-Lebanese. After the
bloodshed, hatred and sectarian tensions of the past week, many Lebanese
are fearful that a breakdown of the dialogue now starting could see
Hezbollah and its allies back on the warpath in search of a clean
political sweep. The consequences, already foreshadowed by the
convulsions which triggered the Arab initiative, could be disastrous.
more...
Russia captures 'Georgian spy'
Aljazeera.net
(May 16, 2008)
-
Russia has said it has captured a
Georgian spy allegedly operating in southern Russia to destabilize the region.
Georgia immediately rejected the allegations as "absurd" and called it part of a
Russian "policy of provocation'' aimed at Tbilisi. Russian news agencies quoted
unnamed sources in Russia's FSB security service as saying they had caught a
34-year-old Georgian who had been living in southern Russia's war-torn Chechyna
region. The man was said to have been recruiting among rebel fighter groups and
security forces there. Speaking to Russia's Interfax news agency, an FSB source
said: "An agent has been exposed, a Russian citizen, a native of Georgia. [This]
confirms the involvement of Georgian secret services in disruptive terrorist
activity in the North Caucasus." The claim comes as tensions between Georgia and
Russia have dramatically escalated, centering on Abkhazia, the Russian-backed
separatist region of Georgia. The Interfax source said the suspect's work was "to organise contacts between
Georgian secret services and active members of illegal armed groups on Russian
territory" in order to provide financing and "organise armed resistance". The source said: "For
fulfilling his tasks the agent several times received
financial rewards from Georgia's special services in American dollars. Some of
these were handed over in personal meetings, some by... money transfer."
Shota Utiashvili, a Georgian interior ministry spokesman, said: "It is an absurd
accusation. Russia's provocations are becoming more and more aggressive."
Tensions between Russia and Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's president, have risen
as Georgia pursues membership of the Nato military alliance. Georgia received a
promise of eventual Nato membership, at an unspecified date, at a summit of Nato
leaders in Bucharest last month. Saakashvili has also sought to retake control
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a second separatist region, which are both backed
by Russia. Tbilisi and Moscow have traded spying accusations before, notably in
September 2006, when Georgia arrested four alleged Russian spies.
Amid Georgian hopes of an easing of tensions under Dmitry
Medvedev, Russia's new president, a Georgian interior ministry official said his
country was "astonished that the new head of the FSB has begun his first day
with the discovery of so-called Georgian spies". Last month, Russia
announced it was establishing formal ties with Georgia's two separatist
regions, even though it claims to recognise Georgia's territorial
integrity. In an example of the growing ties, a Russian Olympic official
and the governor of the neighbouring Russian region of Kuban held talks
in Abkhazia on Friday on building plans for the 2014 Winter Olympics in
Russia, the Interfax news agency said. Moscow has increased its
peacekeeping force in Abkhazia, a force long seen as giving de facto
backing to the Abkhazians. In recent weeks, Abkhaz separatists claim to
have shot down a string of Georgian reconnaissance drones. Tbilisi has
denied those claims, saying that just one drone has been destroyed by a
Russian fighter jet.
Deal seeks to end Lebanon strife
BBC
(May 15, 2008) - Arab League mediators in
Lebanon say they have clinched an agreement to end the recent
fighting, which raised fears of a second civil war breaking out.
They said the opposition would end sit-in protests in Beirut and
allow the city's airport and port to reopen. Fighting between
pro-government groups and the Hezbollah-led opposition broke out
last week leaving at least 65 dead. The breakthrough came a day
after the Lebanese government withdrew plans aimed at curbing
Hezbollah. In what correspondents called a climb-down, ministers
rescinded decisions to shut down of Hezbollah's private phone system
and to remove a head of airport security. These moves last week
triggered the worst violence since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
The head of the Arab League delegation, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh
Hamad bin Jassem bin Hamad al-Thani, announced a breakthrough on
Thursday after two days of peace talks in Beirut. The mediators said
the rival parties would go to Qatar on Friday to try to elect a
president - Lebanon has had no president since November - and form a
national unity government. The two sides have already agreed to
appoint Lebanese army commander Gen Michel Suleiman as president,
but must resolve the other issues first. Lebanon has been suspended
in political crisis since late 2006 when the Hezbollah-led
opposition left a national unity coalition cabinet, demanding more
power and a veto over government decisions. As news of a deal broke,
mechanical diggers began removing roadblocks set up last week by
militants on the route to Beirut's international airport, paving the
way for the first commercial flight to land in a week. Naim Qassam,
the deputy leader of Hezbollah, a mainly Shia political and militant
movement, earlier pledged it would return the situation in Lebanon
back "to normal". The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says the Lebanese
know that issues like the make-up of a new government have defied
all previous efforts to reach agreement. But they will cautiously
welcome the improved situation on the ground, while keeping their
fingers crossed that the dialogue will produce a stable political
situation, he says. Lebanon's Western-backed governing coalition
said last week's violence was a coup attempt by Hezbollah aimed at
restoring the influence of the two regional powers, Syria and Iran.
Ahmadinejad: Israel to be 'swept away soon'
The Earth Times
(May 13, 2008) - Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that Israel would "be soon swept
away" from the Palestinian Territories by the Palestinians. It is
the second time within less than three years that the Iranian
president predicted the eradication of the Jewish state. The first
time was in 2005 when Ahmadinejad hoped that Israel would be
eradicated from the Middle East map. "This terrorist and criminal
state is backed by foreign powers, but this regime would soon be
swept away by the Palestinians," Ahmadinejad said in a press
conference in Tehran. Referring to worldwide celebrations for the
60th anniversary of Israel's foundation, he said that "it would be
futile to hold a birthday ceremony for something which is already
dead." "As far as the regional countries are concerned, this regime
does not exist," Ahmadinejad added. The Iranian president said last
week that the anniversary feasts could not save this "rotten and
stinking corpse." Ahmadinejad caused international outrage in the
past by hoping for the eradication of Israel, the relocation of the
Jewish state to Europe or Alaska and questioning the historic
dimensions of the Holocaust.
Iran's Ambassador to Syria says Israel in worst ever condition
Mathaba
(May 13, 2008) - President's Advisor
and IRI Ambassador in Syria said here Monday occupying regime of Holy
Qods is currently in its worst ever condition, getting weaker with
passage of each day, and moving towards extinction. According to IRNA
correspondent in Syria, Hojjatoleslam Seyyed Ahmad Moussavi made the
comment here on Monday night at the opening ceremony of a conference
titled "Repatriation, A Sacred And Legitimate Right", sponsored by
Damascus based Arab Writers Union. Moussavi added, "Israel has ever
since its establishment been serving the colonialist, and later on
neo-colonialist Western powers as a tool for strengthening their
hegemony in this sensitive region." The Iranian diplomat added, "The US
President assumes that the entire nations in this region are waiting for
him to issue commands and obey them, but the Americans are today
beginning to realize that not only that has been a simple minded
assumption, but also the US and Israeli plots for the region are facing
humiliating defeats in the region one after the other." Referring to the
existence of numerous conflicts and difficulties within the Islamic and
Arab worlds, he said, "Despite all those problems and challenges, the
root cause of most of which is US and Israeli plots, the victory of
Muslims in the long run is easy to predict." The Islamic Republic of
Iran's ambassador to Syria emphasized that freedom and liberation cannot
be achieved without tolerating the hardships of Jihad (sacred defensive
war), resistance, and unity. He added, "In order to achieve
independence, freedom, and competence in facing the ever increasing
challenges in today's world, the world Muslims need to get acquainted
with the culture of resistance, and to keep alight the light of hope for
embracing final victory in their hearts." Hojjatoleslam Moussavi who was
addressing the audience at the conference on the verge of the 60th
wretched anniversary of Israel's illegitimate establishment meanwhile
warned the Muslims to beware of the incessant cultural onslaught of the
West. He added, "The main objective of this onslaught is annihilation of
the Islamic and indigenous values of our nations, as well as braking the
bonds of unity within the Islamic and Arab societies." The Zionists
occupied the major part of Palestine's lands on May 15th, 1948 and in
1967 seized the entire territory of that oppressed nation. The
Palestinians refer to the latter day, when they lost their lands, became
homeless, and were broadly massacred by the Zionists as "Yaum ul-Nikba"
(The Wretched Day), remembering it as the most catastrophic day in their
history, but the illegitimate Zionist state celebrates the same day
annually. Mousavi then referred to the occupation of Palestine initially
by the British forces, and then handing it to the agents of the
International Zionism, who facilitated for the three waves of the world
Jews' migration to that holy land as the most perilous plot hatched n
the West against the Islamic World. He emphasized, "Accusing the world
Muslims of nurturing terrorists and of having terrorist tendencies
today, is a stage in continuation of the same nasty plot." Mousavi said,
"The late founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Imam Khomeini (P)
considered defending the Palestinian nation, and their ideals a top
priority of Iran's foreign policy. Iran's ambassador to Damascus added,
"A couple of signs of remaining faithful to that policy is his
announcement of the last Friday of the fasting month of Ramadan as the
International Qods Day, closure f Israel's embassy in Tehran, and
establishment of Palestine's Embassy in its place soon after the victory
of the Islamic Revolution." The two-day conference is held in the
presence of a large number of Iranian and Arab Alims and thinkers. Among
the prominent Arab personalities at the conference there are the head of
the Arab Writers Union, Hussain Jum'ah, Deputy Secretary General of
Palestine's Islamic Jihad Movement, Amal, and head of Iran-Arab
Friendship Committee, Adnan Abu-Nasser.
Ahmadinejad: Israel a 'stinking corpse' facing annihilation
The Jerusalem Post
(May 9, 2008) - Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that the state of Israel is a
"stinking corpse" that is destined to disappear, the French news agency
AFP reported. "Those who think they can revive the stinking corpse of
the usurping and fake Israeli regime by throwing a birthday party are
seriously mistaken," the official IRNA news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as
having said. "Today the reason for the Zionist regime's existence is
questioned and this regime is on its way to annihilation." Ahmadinejad
further stated that Israel "has reached the end like a dead rat after
being slapped by the Lebanese" - referring to the Second Lebanon War in
the summer of 2006. Given Bible prophecy's stance
on Iran's future actions in
Ezekiel 38,39 I would take his
rhetoric seriously. However, Israel was already a pile of bones, but
God brought them back together again just a few chapters prior to
the foretelling of Iran's attack on Israel. Ezekiel 37:1-6; 11-14 And God has made it clear that
just as the bones coming together again was a sign to the world that
God is who He says He is and means what He says, so too will the
destruction of the Magog invaders in the mountains of Israel be a
witness to the world that He is God. Ezekiel 39:6-8 While
the future does look bleak at times for Israel even after God
intervenes on her behalf, in the end the promise that Israel will
never again be removed from the Promised Land will be true, just
like the rest of God's Word is. It is those that come against the
Lord who will be the "stinking corpses" and will not receive the
promise of eternal life through faith in Yeshua the Christ. Faith is
not blind, faith comes by hearing and hearing by the Word of God.
May your faith be strengthened in these increasingly deceptive times
as you see God's Word come to pass in this generation.
Violence
rekindles fears of Lebanese civil war
MSNBC
(May 8, 2008) - Shiite Hezbollah
supporters and the Lebanese government’s Sunni backers clashed with
machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades Thursday in battles that
spread through Beirut’s streets soon after Hezbollah’s leader vowed to
fight any attempt to disarm his men. Lebanese security officials said
two people were killed and eight wounded in the sectarian clashes. The
violence first erupted in Muslim West Beirut, where masked gunmen on
street corners opened fire along Corniche Mazraa, a major thoroughfare
that has become a demarcation line between the two sides. It spread to
Khandaq el-Ghamiq, a neighborhood adjacent to downtown, which is home to
the government’s offices. Shootings and explosions were reported by
witnesses and television stations in the Aisha Bakkar neighborhood near
the office of Lebanon’s Sunni spiritual leader, who is allied with the
government. Gunfire and explosions were also heard in a nearby district
where the opposition-aligned parliament speaker has his official
residence. Troops in armored carriers had earlier moved in to West
Beirut to separate people who were trading insults and throwing stones
at each other, but the troops did not attempt to stop the street battles
that then broke out. The army, which has been struggling to contain the
disturbances, warned of the consequences to the country and the
military. “The continuation of the situation as is is a clear loss for
all and harms the unity of the military institution,” a statement said.
The clashes have brought back memories of the devastating 1975-1990
civil war that has left lasting scars on Lebanon. Beirut residents are
now seeing fresh demarcation lines, burning tires and roadblocks. The
army has largely stayed out of the broader political struggle between
Hezbollah and the government for fear of exacerbating the situation. The
army’s commander is the two factions’ consensus candidate for president.
Gen. Michel Suleiman so far has advised the government not to declare a
state of emergency. The clashes came close on the heels of a defiant
speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who said his Iranian-backed
militant organization would respond with force to any attacks. “Those
who try to arrest us, we will arrest them,” he said. “Those who shoot at
us, we will shoot at them. The hand raised against us, we will cut it
off.” It was the second day of fighting that has turned some city
neighborhoods into battlegrounds and spilled over to other parts of the
country. more... What does this have to do with
Gog/Magog? As was reported a while back, Southern Lebanon has been a
location with
many underground bunkers storing munitions and the
Magog attack is supposed to come from the North into Israel. That
there were
Russian and
Turkish
"peacekeeping troops" sent in after the 2006
fighting with Israel and these bunkers are storing weapons, the
instability in the nation now would seem to tilt into the hands of
Hezbollah who is supported by Iran, a major player in the attack on
Israel that God prevents.
Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia
The Star Online
(May 6, 2008) - Russia's deployment of
extra troops in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has brought
the prospect of war "very close", a minister of ex-Soviet Georgia said
on Tuesday. Separately, in comments certain to fan rising tension
between Moscow and Tbilisi, the "foreign minister" of the breakaway
Black Sea region was quoted as saying it was ready to hand over military
control to Russia. "We literally have to avert war," Temur
Iakobashvili, a Georgian State Minister, told reporters in Brussels.
Asked how close to such a war the situation was, he replied: "Very
close, because we know Russians very well." "We know what the signals
are when you see propaganda waged against Georgia. We see Russian troops
entering our territories on the basis of false information," he
said. Georgia, a vital energy transit route in the Caucasus region, has
angered Russia, its former Soviet master with which it shares a land
border, by seeking NATO membership. An April summit of the U.S.-led
Western alliance stopped short of giving it a definite track towards
membership but confirmed it would enter one day. Russia has said its
troop build-up is needed to counter what it says are Georgian plans to
attack Abkhazia, a sliver of land by the Black Sea, and has accused
Tbilisi of trying to suck the West into a war -- allegations Georgia
rejects. Tensions have been steadily mounting and escalated after
Georgia accused Russia of shooting down one of its drones over Abkhazia
in April, a claim Russia denied. An extra Russian contingent began
arriving in Abkhazia last week. Moscow has not said how many troops
would be added but said the total would remain within the 3,000 limit
allowed under a United Nations-brokered ceasefire agreement signed in
1994. Diplomats expect the reinforcement to be of the order of 1,200.
more... This story made me think given
how close we could be to Russia, Turkey, Iran and others attacking
Israel from the North. Take a look at this map below. Notice Georgia
borders Turkey. I find it convenient to the attack scenario that
these troops are building up for other reasons as far as the world
is concerned. Keep in mind also that Hezbollah is causing problems
and gaining control in Beirut while the rest of Lebanon is in
turmoil currently and there are reports of weapons bunkers on the
southern border of Lebanon, which borders Northern Israel. If Turkey
is part of the invading force, then Russian troops could pass
through Turkey with Turkish troops, through Syria and finally
through Lebanon into Northern Israel. Keep in mind also that I
believe scripture clarifies that these attackers are pulled into
attacking Israel by the destruction of Damascus in Syria. So while
Syria is not mentioned in the prophecy I'm sure any forces there
would be more than willing to participate if not just allowing
Russian, Turkish and Iranian troops to come down through her to
Israel. I'm not saying this will happen
now, but the Bible says it will happen and this seems to be awfully
set up currently for a sudden attack. If Israel were to catch wind
of some plan being hatched in the terrorist-infested city of
Damascus,
would Israel strike first? Remember that Syria was
building a nuclear reactor that Israel destroyed and that Israel
hardly has any true friends in the region. There's also the
story further down
regarding Israel's threat to Syria regarding Hezbollah. Then there
is the story from above regarding the troubles in Lebanon and the
instability created by Hezbollah. For Israel, this is a fight
for existence. Of course God won't allow them to be completely wiped
out, but the mindset in the political realm of Israel is fairly
secular in nature right now. I believe that will change once God
steps in to save Israel from this invasion attempt. Keep watching!
EU warns
Russia against boosting troops in Georgian breakaway regions
EU Observer
(April 30, 2008) - In a sharp
escalation of tensions in the South Caucasus, Russia has claimed
that Georgia is set to invade its breakaway region of Abkhazia and
is increasing the number of Russian troops there and in South
Ossetia in response. The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana,
has warned Russia against such a move. "Even if the increase in
peacekeepers is within limits, if we want to diminish the perception
of tensions, I don't think it is a wise measure to increase now," EU
foreign policy chief Javier Solana said on Tuesday (29 April),
adding that the union continues to defend the territorial integrity
of Georgia. The statement came only hours after Russia had accused
Georgia, a part of the Soviet Union between 1922 and 1991, of
attempting to invade Abkhazia, something that Tbillisi denies. "If
Georgia puts in place the threat it has made on a number of
occasions about the use of force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, we
would be forced to take retaliatory measures to protect the lives of
our citizens," Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told press,
after talking to his European counterparts in Luxembourg on Tuesday.
The Russian foreign ministry has accused Georgia of sending 1,500 of
its own troops and police in the upper Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia,
which is still under Tblisi's control. "A bridgehead is being
prepared for the start of military operations against Abkhazia,"
reads a ministry statement. Georgia has denied any plans or troop
build-up, and regarded the Russian move and accusations as
provocative. Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said: "From now on, we
consider every [Russian] soldier or any unit of military equipment
coming in [to Abkhazia and South Ossetia] as illegal, potential
aggressors and potential generators of destabilisation." "We
consider this to be an utterly irresponsible step. We think this
step will utterly destabilise this region," he added. Meanwhile,
according to AFP, Georgian interior minster Shota Utiashvili said:
""This is not acceptable to us ... [Russia] cannot increase the
number any further." "It is the Russians who are taking provocative
actions, not Georgia," he added. "Deploying additional troops is
certainly a very provocative move." "There has been no increase in
forces from the Georgian side, nothing at all. The Russian statement
is simply not true," he continued. It seems the divisions
that will lead to a Russian, Turkish, Iranian and Libyan alliance
apart from the rest of the world are becoming clearer. Europe is
working to bring peace while the other side keeps provoking and
seemingly working against it. I believe it is this group that will
get "spanked by God" when they attack Israel which could lead to a
time of more relative peace, albeit short half-peace, before all
hell breaks loose at the abomination of desolation. For now Europe
and the West are at odds with Russia and the more radical Islamic
nations. There are many things that could shift these relationships
dramatically and quickly. While I don't have all the answers, I'm
still watching! The end will come as foretold, we just have to go
through the stages to get there to really understand how.
Iran tells Russia of plan to solve world problems
Brietbart.com
(April 28, 2008) - Iran's top national
security official on Monday held talks with his Russian counterpart
about a new Iranian package aimed at solving world problems,
including the nuclear standoff with the West. "The package is about
the great questions of the world and the nuclear question could be
the subject of discussion," Iran's top national security official
Saeed Jalili said after talks with Russia's Valentin Sobolev. Jalili
gave no further details over the contents of the package, which
appears to be an all-embracing attempt to solve the problems of the
world rather than a specific offer to end the nuclear crisis. "Our
approach could be a good basis for negotiation between the
influential powers of the world," he said. The package appears to
emphasise what Iran sees as its growing power in the world and the
supposed decline of the great world powers such as Britain and the
United States. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said in
recent weeks that Iran is the most powerful nation in the world and
capitalist superpowers are on the verge of collapse. Ahmadinejad
appointed his close ally Jalili as secretary of the Supreme National
Security Council in a surprise move last year, replacing the more
moderate Ali Larijani. "The world is no longer unilateral," Jalili
told a news conference alongside Sobolev, who is the acting head of
Russia's security council. "There are different powers in the world.
Decisions should be made taking into account these different powers
and the capacity and power of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the
world," said Jalili. He added that the package would not yet be made
public. It would be a major surprise if the package contained any
concession from Iran to break the deadlock in the nuclear standoff
as Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Tehran will not cede an inch in
the dispute. more... According to
my understanding of scripture and the
timing of events, Iran is very close to the prophesied attack on
Israel,
Ezekiel 38,39, in which God will
intervene and destroy the attackers. Ahmadinejad's feeling of power
in seeing the decline of Western power could lead to confidence in
attacking Israel and the world not doing anything about it. There is
also the possibility that they are led to attack because of an
Israeli pre-emptive attack on Damascus,
Isaiah 17, which would give them
even more confidence to attack. Keep watching!
Israel: UNIFIL is hiding information about Hezbollah from Security
Council
Haaretz
(April 28, 2008) - The United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is intentionally concealing
information about Hezbollah activities south of the Litani River in
Lebanon to avoid conflict with the group, senior sources in
Jerusalem have said. In the last six months there have been at least
four cases in which UNIFIL soldiers identified armed Hezbollah
operatives, but did nothing and did not submit full reports on the
incidents to the UN Security Council. The Israel Defense Forces and
the Foreign Ministry are reportedly very angry about UNIFIL's
actions in recent months, especially about the fact that its
commander, Major General Claudio Graziano, is said to be leniently
interpreting his mission, as assigned by Security Council Resolution
1701, passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War. Senior IDF
officials said recently behind closed doors that Graziano is
"presenting half-truths so as to avoid embarrassment and conflict
with Hezbollah," and that Resolution 1701 has been increasingly
eroded in recent months. A senior government source in Jerusalem
said that, "There is an attempt by various factors in the UN to
mislead the Security Council and whitewash everything having to do
with the strengthening of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon." The source
also said, "The policy of cover-ups and whitewashing will not last
long and, hopefully, now that the concealing of information has been
revealed, things will change." Israeli anger reached boiling point
over a week ago after the release of a new report by UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon with regard to another Lebanon-related
Security Council resolution, 1559. The report briefly mentioned an
incident at the beginning of March in which UNIFIL soldiers
encountered unidentified armed men, and included no additional
details. Officials in Israel, familiar with the incident, reportedly
were aware that the Security Council had not been apprised of
numerous details of the incident. A day after the release of the
report, Haaretz revealed that the incident described in the report
had actually been a clash between UNIFIL and armed Hezbollah
activists. The latter, driving a truck full of explosives,
threatened the Italian UNIFIL battalion with weapons. Instead of
using force as required by their mandate, the UN soldiers abandoned
the site. A diplomatic source at the UN told Haaretz that senior
officials in UNIFIL and in the UN Secretariat brought heavy pressure
to bear to have the incident erased from the report or at least to
blur it. When the incident was made public, UNIFIL was forced to
admit that it had indeed occurred and to request Lebanon's
assistance in investigating it. UNIFIL spokeswoman Yasmina Bouziane
said that during the incident, which took place near the city of
Tyre in southern Lebanon, five armed men had threatened UNIFIL
troops. more...
Report: Hezbollah man says new attack on Israel is question of
'when, not if'
Haaretz
(April 27, 2008) - Two years after the
Second Lebanon War, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization has
bolstered its recruitment efforts at an unprecedented rate in
preparation for a fresh war with Israel, The Guardian reported
Sunday. The report quoted an unnamed Hezbollah fighter as saying:
"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah [Hezbollah chief] commands us" to attack. According to the
report, the Islamist group has of late been sending "hundreds, if
not thousands" of recruits to training camps in Lebanon, Syria and
Iran in ancticipation of conflict with Israel. "The villages in the
south are empty of men," an international official was quoted as
saying. "They are all gone, training in Bekaa, Syria and Iran."
Israel and the Hezbollah fought a 34-day war in the summer of 2006,
sparked by the militant group's cross-border raid and abduction of
two Israel Defense Forces reservists. more...
Putin in Libya to close $2.5b arms deal
The Jerusalem Post
(April 16, 2008) - Only few weeks
before he leaves office, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in
Libya on Wednesday for a two-day visit likely to be dominated by
discussions on energy cooperation, arms deals and debt negotiations.
Putin's visit may bring closure to several large arms deals totaling
$2.5 billion, which are aimed at bolstering Libya's aging weapons
arsenal, Russian media outlets reported. The deals will include
anti-aircraft systems, MiG and Sukhoi aircraft, helicopters,
submarines and warships, the Russian news agency Interfax said. "The
media are always interested in arms deals… but the main issue for
Russia will be Libya as a trading partner, which is something that
almost every country in the world is interested in, because Libya,
with a high oil price, has a lot of money to spend," Oliver Miles, a
former British ambassador to Libya, and currently deputy chairman of
the Libyan British Business Council, told The Media Line. Last week,
the state-run Russian gas company, Gazprom, revealed it was
negotiating with its Italian partner, Eni, about a potential asset
swap involving projects in Libya. The heads of the two companies
have met with Putin recently, although the content of their
discussions has not been fully disclosed. International competition
over foreign investments in Libya has been heightened as a result of
the country's recent moves to open up. "There are many things that
we in Britain, for example, or the French, or other exporting
countries, would wish to sell to the Libyans, and naturally we see
the Russians as competitors," Miles said. Regarding the military
aircraft deal, Miles explained there was direct competition between
France and Russia, which are "probably the most likely suppliers of
military aircraft to Libya." The former ambassador explained that a
French-Libyan deal for the purchase of military aircraft was
considered a done deal at the time of French President Nicolas
Sarkozy's recent visit to Libya. more...
Putin accepts leadership of party
Associated Press
(April 15, 2008) - Vladimir Putin
agreed Tuesday to take command of the United Russia Party when he
steps down as president, enhancing the power he will wield as prime
minister and bolstering his platform for a potential return to the
Kremlin. At a party congress that mixed promises of a bright future
with traditions from the communist era, more than 550 delegates
unanimously approved Putin as chairman of Russia's most powerful
political faction. Speaking just three weeks before he will cede the
presidency to his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, Putin said
the move would help ensure that Russia's political bosses and
bureaucrats functioned as a "single organism" for the good of the
people. "Today even more than before, we need the consolidation of
political forces and the spiritual unity of our people," he told the
congress in an exhibition center off Red Square. Putin cast the move
as a step toward European-style democracy, saying that for the head
of a party to be prime minister is "a civilized, natural,
traditional practice for democratic states." But the analogy was not
precise because in Russia, the prime minister is appointed by the
president, unlike the European parliamentary democracy system in
which the chairman of the leading party is generally chosen as
premier. Critics dismissed Putin's argument as a bid to lend
legitimacy to a process engineered from the top down, saying it was
more like a step backward toward Soviet times, when the Communist
Party had no rival and its chief was the supreme leader. Some
analysts called Putin's decision the strategic maneuver of a
control-minded leader determined to head off potential challenges,
and said it would undermine Medvedev by boosting the authority of
Putin and parliament. In terms of imagery, Putin eclipsed Medvedev
at the congress, staying firmly in the spotlight in his final weeks
of an eight-year presidency marked by carefully choreographed events
that have helped enhance his popularity. In less than an hour,
Tuesday's proceedings capped a year of maneuvering by Putin to
maintain power after he leaves the presidency. Constitutionally
barred from seeking a third straight term, he anointed Medvedev as
his favored successor and announced he would become prime minister.
Putin has promised not to shift any presidential powers to the prime
minister, who is a distant No. 2 under the constitution. But he has
made no secret of his plans to use the State Duma, or lower house of
parliament, to ensure that his will is carried out. more...
Iran: We'll 'eliminate Israel' if it launches attack
The Jerusalem Post
(April 15, 2008) - Iran will eliminate
Israel if it attacks the Islamic Republic, Iran's deputy army chief
warned Tuesday in words conjuring up Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's threats to wipe Israel off the map. "Should Israel
take any action against Iran, we will eliminate Israel from the
scene of the universe," Gen. Muhammad Reza Ashtiani said in Teheran
on Tuesday. Ashtiani's statement followed Infrastructure Minister
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer's comment last week warning Iran that any
attack on Israel would result in the "destruction of the Iranian
nation." Ashtiani claimed Israel was "very vulnerable" and dismissed
allegations that Iran was worried about Israeli maneuvers. "Due to
its special conditions, Israel is very vulnerable in the region," he
said. "The aggressors will face a crushing response." Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert's spokesman Mark Regev responded by saying "these
hateful and extreme statements from the Iranian leadership are
unfortunately routine. The sad reality is that these statements
expose the mind set and political agenda of the leadership in
Teheran. Unfortunately these hateful words are backed up by very
dangerous actions." Foreign Ministry spokesman Aryeh Mekel said that
these comments illustrate the need for the international community
to "work with more determination" and take steps to keep Iran, which
is threatening to destroy another UN member state, from obtaining
nuclear weapons. more... I believe Iran will follow
through on this threat. However, I also believe God will follow
through with His promised intervention when it takes place as well.
A Mystery in the Middle East
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
(April 8, 2008) - The Arab-Israeli
region of the Middle East is filled with
rumors of war. That is about as unusual as the rising of the sun, so
normally it would not be worth mentioning. But like the proverbial
broken clock that is right twice a day, such rumors occasionally will be
true. In this case, we don’t know that they are true, and certainly it’s
not the rumors that are driving us. But other things — minor and readily
explicable individually — have drawn our attention to the possibility
that something is happening. The first thing that drew our attention was
a minor, routine matter. Back in February, the United States started
purchasing oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR is a
reserve of crude oil stored in underground salt domes. Back in February,
it stood at 96.2 percent of capacity, which is pretty full as far as we
are concerned. But the U.S. Department of Energy decided to increase its
capacity. This move came in spite of record-high oil prices and the fact
that the purchase would not help matters. It also came despite potential
political fallout, since during times like these there is generally
pressure to release reserves. Part of the step could have been the
bureaucracy cranking away, and part of it could have been the feeling
that the step didn’t make much difference. But part of it could have
been based on real fears of a disruption in oil supplies. By itself, the
move meant nothing. But it did cause us to become thoughtful. Also in
February, someone
assassinated Imad Mughniyah, a leader of Hezbollah, in a car bomb
explosion in Syria. It was assumed the Israelis had killed him, although
there were some suspicions the Syrians might have had him killed for
their own arcane reasons. In any case, Hezbollah publicly claimed the
Israelis killed Mughniyah, and therefore it was expected the militant
Shiite group would take revenge. In the past, Hezbollah responded
not by attacking Israel but by
attacking Jewish targets elsewhere, as in the Buenos Aires attacks
of 1992 and 1994. In March, the United States decided to dispatch the
USS Cole, then under Sixth Fleet command, to
Lebanese coastal waters. Washington later replaced it with two
escorts from the Nassau (LHA-4) Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG),
reportedly maintaining a minor naval presence in the area. (Most of the
ESG, on a regularly scheduled deployment, is no more than a few days
sail from the coast, as it remains in the Mediterranean Sea.) The reason
given for the American naval presence was to serve as a warning to the
Syrians not to involve themselves in Lebanese affairs. The exact mission
of the naval presence off the Levantine coast — and the exact deterrent
function it served — was not clear, but there they were. The Sixth Fleet
has gone out of its way to park and maintain U.S. warships off the
Lebanese coast. Hezbollah leaders being killed by the Israelis and the
presence of American ships off the shores of Mediterranean countries are
not news in and of themselves. These things happen. The killing of
Mughniyah is notable only to point out that as much as Israel might have
wanted him dead, the Israelis knew this fight would escalate. But anyone
would have known this. So all we know is that whoever killed Mughniyah
wanted to trigger a conflict. The U.S. naval presence off the Levantine
coast is notable in that Washington, rather busy with matters elsewhere,
found the bandwidth to get involved here as well. With the situation
becoming tense, the Israelis announced in March that they would carry
out an exercise in April called
Turning Point 2. Once again, an Israeli military exercise is hardly
interesting news. But the Syrians apparently got quite interested. After
the announcement, the Syrians
deployed three divisions — two armored, one mechanized — to the
Lebanese-Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley, the western part of which is
Hezbollah’s stronghold. The Syrians didn’t appear to be aggressive.
Rather, they deployed these forces in a defensive posture, in a way
walling off their part of the valley. The Syrians are well aware that in
the event of a conventional war with Israel, they would experience a
short but exciting life, as they say. They thus are hardly going to
attack Israel. The deployment therefore seemed intended to keep the
Israelis on the Lebanese side of the border — on the apparent assumption
the Israelis were going into the Bekaa Valley. Despite Israeli and
Syrian denials of the Syrian troop buildup along the border, Stratfor
sources maintain that the
buildup in fact happened. Normally, Israel would be jumping at the
chance to trumpet Syrian aggression in response to these troop
movements, but, instead, the Israelis downplayed the buildup. When the
Israelis kicked off Turning Point 2, which we regard as a pretty
interesting name, it turned out to be the largest exercise in Israeli
history. It involved the entire country, and was designed to test civil
defenses and the ability of the national command authority to continue
to function in the event of an attack with unconventional weapons —
chemical and nuclear, we would assume. This was a costly exercise. It
also involved calling up reserves, some of them for the exercise, and,
by some reports, others for deployment to the north against Syria.
Israel does not call up reserves casually. Reserve call-ups are
expensive and disrupt the civilian economy. These appear small, but in
the environment of Turning Point 2, it would not be difficult to
mobilize larger forces without being noticed. The Syrians already were
deeply concerned by the Israeli exercise. Eventually, the Lebanese
government got worried, too, and started to evacuate some civilians from
the South. Hezbollah, which still hadn’t retaliated for the Mughniyah
assassination, also claimed the Israelis were about to attack it, and
reportedly went on alert and mobilized its forces. The Americans, who
normally issue warnings and cautions to everyone, said nothing to try to
calm the situation. They just sat offshore on their ships. more...
Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria
World Tribune
(April 8, 2008) - Israel's intelligence
community has concluded that the next war would involve missiles and
Hizbullah, last at least a month and include Syria. The intelligence
community has drafted a series of scenarios for Israel's emergency
services to prepare for future war. The scenarios envisioned the next
war as including massive missile and rocket salvos, some of them
containing chemical weapons, on Israeli cities. "The scenarios are based
on Arab military capability rather than intentions," an Israeli
government source said. "The war in Lebanon was also seen as a taste of
what a full-scale war would bring." Officials said Israel's military,
police and emergency services have been on high alert for an attack by
Hizbullah, Syria or Iran, Middle East Newsline reported. They said the
current alert would last throughout April and did not rule out a
continuation of high combat-readiness for the rest of 2008. Under the
scenarios, hundreds of Israelis would be killed and thousands injured in
missile strikes on Tel Aviv. The enemy missiles would target strategic
facilities, including Israel's Ben-Gurion International Airport.
Syria was also expected to be a participant in the next war against
Israel. The intelligence community envisioned Hizbullah, Iran and
Syria coordinating strikes on northern and central Israel. The Hamas
regime and the Palestinian Authority would also fire rockets from the
West Bank and Gaza Strip. In one scenario, Iran would also attack the
Jewish state. The intelligence community did not expect Iran to fire
nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, but said such an attack
could stem from Syria. more...
Turkey's EU bid runs into trouble
BBC News
(April 4, 2008) - Turkey's attempt to
enter the EU is now being called Europe's "biggest project". But new
doubts have emerged that it will ever happen. Uniting Turkey, a large
mainly Muslim nation, with the European Union is Europe's biggest peace
project since World War II, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ali Babacan says.
But he complains that some EU countries are holding Turkey back out of
political ill-will. Turkey has had enough of being Europe's whipping
boy. After nine years of frustrating efforts as an official candidate to
join the European Union but still without a guarantee of membership in
the end, its leaders now have a tougher message for Europe - play fair,
because you need us as much as we need you. Veiled warning Mr
Babacan told BBC News "Europe should never think that Turkey has no
choice". This did not mean there was any "other alliance or group of
countries we might join forces with", the minister explained. But the
relationship must be a two-way street, of benefit to both sides. The
foreign minister's veiled warning came this week during a conference in
Istanbul of the British Wilton Park organisation for politicians and
policy-makers to assess Turkey's path towards EU accession. Last week
Turkey's most ardent supporters of its European hopes were shocked when
the Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, told students in Sarajevo that
his country would have "nothing to lose" if Europe kept it out. The EU
would be the loser, Mr Erdogan claimed. Turkey's 45-year-old commitment
to integration in Europe has hit serious turbulence. And "enlargement
fatigue" among the EU's 27 member states is not the main reason. The
issue is Turkey itself. Turkish hopes are threatened by flagging popular
support on both sides. more... It seems Turkey is going to be
forced more out of the alliance of Europe and into that of it's
Muslim origins and with the same group that the Bible foretells will
attack Israel in the Magog invasion. Keep watching!
Iran
Gains African Foothold up to Chad through Pacts with Sudan
DEBKAfile
(April 1, 2008) - Iran jumped in with
gusto to meet Sudan president Omar al-Bashir’s application for a
military package including arms and training of his army. The
application was received after the horrendous Darfur tragedy and
Khartoum’s backing for Chad rebels finally convinced Sudan’s traditional
arms suppliers, Russia, China and Libya, to back away from arming
Sudan’s 120,000-strong army. Beijing came last, sensitized to its
international image by the approaching Olympic Games in August. Libya
has a major beef with Khartoum for backing the rebels fighting to
overthrow Chad president Idriss Debby. The pacts were signed on March 8
by Iran’s defense minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Majjar and his Sudanese
counterpart, Gen. Abdul Rahim Mohammad Hussein, a fighter pilot
appointed defense minister last month. For years Tehran has been
building up its military ties with Khartoum with an eye on its
geopolitical assets: a long coast on the Red Sea, a main sea lanes to
the Persian Gulf, a Muslim nation located opposite Saudi Arabia and next
door to Egypt; Sudan’s command of oil resources and the White Nile, a
major water source for an entire African region. This strategic jewel
finally dropped into Iran’s fundamentalist lap. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s
Iranian sources disclosed its substance on March 14, 2008: 1. The Sudanese Army will gradually re-adjust from
Russian and Chinese weaponry to Iranian-made items.
The $1.8 billion White Nile River Merowe Dam hydropower project,
which includes a 174-kilometer long reservoir, is funded by China and
Arab countries. Chinese, Sudanese, German and French companies
participate in this project and in the Kajbar Dam downstream of the
Merowe Dam. The Sudanese are afraid that Egypt, which claims the Merowe
project is diverting its water supply, may attack and destroy the
project. On March 10, the UN center in Geneva published a report
compiled by a group of experts monitoring human rights in Sudan, which
had this to say about these dams: “We regret that the government did not
allow access to Kajbar, Amir, Merowe and Makabrab in the northern state.
The visit was planned to meet with local authorities and affected
communities in the Nile valley area where two hydropower dams are being
constructed. It was canceled by Sudan’s state security committee the day
before it was scheduled to travel to the area. The reasons provided by
the government did not justify their decision to prevent access.
more... Image from
Chuck
Missler research
No Lebanon Breakthrough for Arabs
BBC News
(March
30, 2008) - An annual summit of the Arab League has ended in
Syria's capital Damascus with a call for an end to the political crisis
in Lebanon. But correspondents say there were no specific proposals to
solve the crisis, which has seen Lebanon without a president since
November. Only 11 heads of states from the 22-member organisation were
present, as key pro-Western leaders stayed away. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
Jordan sent low-level delegations. They blame Syria for the ongoing
political crisis in Lebanon - a charge denied by the government in
Damascus. The Lebanese government boycotted the summit completely. In a
final statement, the League called for a compromise candidate to be
elected president, and a national unity cabinet formed, AFP news agency
reported. But the BBC's Heba Saleh in Damascus says there were no
breakthroughs. Opening the meeting, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
denied his country was meddling in Lebanon. He was responding to
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who had accused Syria of
preventing the election of a consensus president in Beirut. Mr Assad
said his country was willing to join "Arab or non-Arab efforts" to end
Lebanon's political crisis "on condition that they are based on Lebanese
national consensus". But our correspondent says it will take more than
words to convince his critics, and Syria risks further isolation if
there is no immediate resolution to the Lebanon crisis. In Riyadh, the
Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, suggested Syria had not
abided by the Arab consensus on Lebanon. "The problem is that what was
decided unanimously in the Arab League, including by Syria, is not being
carried out," he said. The foreign minister called for
''counter-measures". Syria had billed the summit as a golden opportunity
for regional unity but there is little sign of this, BBC Middle East
correspondent Katya Adler reports from Damascus. She says the leaders of
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Lebanon are all staying at home because
they view Syria as a trouble-maker, too close to Iran and a destructive
force in Lebanon. Syria has accused them in the past of being
subservient to the US and Foreign Minister Walid Moualem has blamed
Washington for trying to "divide the Arab world". "They [the US] did
their best to prevent the summit but they failed," Mr Moualem said on
the eve of the summit. It's interesting to see the
lines being drawn in alliances that God foretold in scripture come
to pass. Syria is viewed as a troublemaker which may explain why
Damascus is destroyed while a group of Muslim nations remains
distant from them and are not mentioned in the list of Magog
attackers. Lebanon is still teetering, but I wouldn't be surprised
if it turned once Damascus is destroyed to act as a staging ground
for a Northern attack on Israel. Time will tell if these are the
developing stages or not, as for me I'm going to keep watching.
No One Can Separate Iran, Turkey - Ahmadinejad
Israel in cross-hairs of summer war?
World Net Daily
(March 13, 2008) - Britain's Secret Intelligence Service says
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are training hundreds of Hamas fighters to
prepare for an all-out war this summer against Israel, according to
Joseph Farah's G2
Bulletin. The Gaza-based organization's elite Izzedine al-Qassam
Brigade will form the southern front of an attack against the Jewish
state while Hezbollah will launch its simultaneous assault from southern
Lebanon, according to MI6. Analysts with the organization believe the
attack will come in the rundown of the Bush administration and closing
months of the bitter Democratic campaign. "With the Bush White House
virtually a spent force and both the Democrats and Republicans looking
inward to their conventions, there is mounting evidence that Tehran will
seize the opportunity to attack Israel through its surrogates, Hamas and
Hezbollah," said a senior intelligence source in London. MI6 analysts
have confirmed tortuous negotiations in which Egypt acted as an
intermediary between Hamas and Israel are now increasingly fragile.
Hamas, which is pledged to destroy Israel, is officially excluded by
Israel from direct negotiations with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's
government. But with the mounting threat of a simultaneous attack on
Israel from two fronts, several members of the Israeli security services
have begun to urge Olmert to meet with Hamas leaders. However,
hardliners like the head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, and Yuval Diskin, the
director-general of Israel's internal security service, Shin Bet, are
opposed to any negotiations. Dagan has told Olmert: "To talk to Hamas is
a waste of time. Gaza is a noxious mixture of our oxidized hopes." And
Diskin added last week: "While we would be talking, Hamas would be
sending still more of its fighters to Iran to be trained." MI6
undercover agents in Tehran – operating out of a secret base on the
country's border with Iraq – have established there are three training
camps. Israel to Hizbullah: Revenge Attack Could Mean War Israel National News (March 12, 2008) - Israel has recently warned Hizbullah that it will not hesitate to retaliate with war for a large scale attack on its citizens, Channel 10 – Nana news reported Wednesday. The Hizbullah attack is expected in revenge for the killing of its operations officer Imad Mughniyeh. Iranian TV vowed that Israel would face its "third destruction" on the 40th day after Mughniyeh's death, which will occur next Saturday. Israeli intelligence is picking up extensive "chatter" between Hizbullah and Iran but still has not located specific intentions to carry out a terror attack. Israeli military attachés worldwide have been instructed to change their routine movements and retired military persons were warned to exercise caution in their travels.| Iran | Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
Syrian Defense Minister receives a Russian Military delegation Syrian Arab News Agency (March 11, 2008) - Defense Minister L.t. Gen. Hassan Turkmani has received Gen.-Col. Aleksandr Nikolaevich Zelin, deputy chief of the Russian Federation Air Forces and an accompanying delegation. Talks during the meeting Monday dealt with the latest developments in the region and means of enhancing cooperation between the two countries.| Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog | Allies of Syria and Iran Ready to Confront Israel Naharet (March 10, 2008) - Political factions backed by Syria and Iran on Monday said they are prepared to confront any Israeli attack on Lebanon and declared support for the killing of eight students at a Jewish religious school in Jerusalem. The self-labeled Lebanese Parties issued a statement after their regular meeting at the offices in Sidon of Ousama Saad's Popular Nasserite Organization claiming the United States has dispatched naval vessels to the Mediterranean to "support the ruling majority." The statement said the groups are "fully prepared and perfectly ready to confront any Zionist aggression that leaders of the Zionist entity's criminal terror could launch." It praised as "heroic" the killing of Jewish religious students in Jerusalem, saying it was the "real and factual response to Fascist-Zionist practices carried out by the enemy's army in Gaza."| Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
President or
foreign minister - who should talk to Medvedev?
EU Observer (March
7, 2008) -
Listening to an analysis of the Russian presidential election, I
heard the interviewer ask who would now be handling Russian foreign
policy? Would it be the President - the newly elected ex-Chairman of
the Russian state energy giant, Gazprom, whose name was lost to
Hillary Clinton the other day - Mr Dmitry Medvedev? Or would it be
that prime ministerial power behind, under, over, around, and beside
the President's throne - Mr Vladimir Putin? The government spokesman
muttered something safe, as spokesmen are wont to do. Under our
constitution, he said, the President deals with foreign policy while
the Prime Minister (that is Mr Putin) deals with domestic matters.
We shall have to wait to see what happens in practice but only the
bright and naively optimistic can surely imagine that the Putin
finger will, not only be in every domestic pie, but on every foreign
policy trigger as well. ...But before we Europeans shake our heads
and tut-tut (and after all the congratulations to Mr Mevedev and the
hoping that his election will usher in a new, warm period in
EU-Russian relations, there is a very great deal to tut-tut at in
Russian politics and not only Mr Putin's flagrant warping of the
Constitution and suppression of all viable opposition) we could well
turn the question back on ourselves and ponder who, in practice,
will actually be responsible for foreign policy, on our side of the
fence so to speak, in the post-Lisbon Treaty World of 2009? Who
will have the job of dealing face to face with Mr Putin and Mr
Mevedev over energy security, border control, trade, missile sites,
nuclear installations, climate change, extradition matters,
exploitation of the Arctic, the Caucasus, Serbia, the United
Nations, and so on? Who will handle the relations between democratic
Europe and despotic Russia; between two nuclear armed continents
that share a long border? Will it be Europe's Foreign Minister
designate under the Lisbon Treaty, Or will it be the President of
the European Council? ...In the absence of a coherent European
foreign policy (look how split Europe is over Kosovo, over US
missile defence bases, over gas pipelines) Russia naturally finds it
easy to play one country off against another. Nothing unites us
quite so well as our disunity. But a strong European foreign
policy will require leadership and diplomatic skills of the highest
order, both to secure the policy at home and then to put it across
abroad. As the Constitutional Convention of 2003 foresaw,
Europe does need someone to speak with both personal and
constitutional authority on Foreign Affairs. Should this person
be the (so-not-called) Foreign Minister - or should it be Europe's
President, the man or woman whose task it will be to coral the
member states, pushing the agenda along in the manner of someone
first among equals? At present, of course, there is no EU
President as such. The Lisbon Treaty creates a new and, as yet,
undefined post. Foreign Policy is split between the High
Representative (Mr Solana) who works for the member states, and the
External Relations Commissioner, Mrs Ferrero-Waldner. These two
posts will be combined into something which, in practice, will be a
quasi-Secretary of State role. Mr Solana (for he is the favourite)
will then have a foot in both camps. But a Secretary
of State is a Secretary of State. He or she acts on behalf of the
head of state. Now the European Union is not a state; it is a
partnership of states that wish, ostensibly, to align their foreign
policies to achieve goals and influence which they could not expect
to achieve, in this global world, by acting alone. But if the
partnership is to find a voice and then speak with authority, it
needs a strong President. ...Vladimir Putin may have been prepared
to bend the constitution and engage in practices so anti-democratic
that election observers feel they cannot operate in Russia, so great
are the restrictions placed upon them. But Europeans beware! Our own
democratic credentials at the Continental level are wafer thin; some
would say non-existent. Europe's President will be appointed; not
even indirectly elected. As will be the Foreign Minister. Are
their democratic credentials, therefore, any better than those of Mr
Medvedev and Mr Putin? If our enlarged Europe is to pursue a united
and successful foreign policy, she must not fall into the Russian
trap of becoming another ‘sovereign democracy.' Criticising Russia
here may be another case of pots and kettles. more...
Kuwaiti Paper: Mega-Attack on Israel in March
Israel National News
(February
26, 2008) - The Kuwaiti daily Al-Watan quoted "top Western
sources" Monday saying that, "according to reliable intelligence
information, Hizbullah has begun planning a large-scale attack on Israel
in retaliation for its [alleged] assassination of senior Hizbullah
commander Imad Mughniyah." According to the report, translated by MEMRI,
the attack is being planned in coordination with Syria and Iran, and is
to take place before the Arab summit next month. It was also reported
that there would be a simultaneous terrorist escalation by Hamas,
Islamic Jihad, and other PA groups in Gaza.
Syria, Iran foresee large clash with Israel
Haaretz
(February
17, 2008) - Syrian and Iranian officials believe there will be a
serious military confrontation with Israel in the near future, according
to Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese daily affiliated with Hezbollah. Hezbollah's
response to the assassination of Imad Mughniyah, the organization's
operations chief, will force Israel to make a "difficult decision," the
newspaper stated in an editorial. Hezbollah blames Israel for
Mughniyah's assassination in Damascus last week. Ibrahim al-Amin, Al-Akhbar's
editor, said in a televised interview that Hezbollah does not intend to
accept Mughniyah's assassination quietly. Hezbollah's response "will
force Israel to make a big decision," he said. However, he insisted
that Hezbollah was not interested in a war with Israel. Meanwhile, the
defense establishment is bracing for a response from Hezbollah. It is
concerned the group may use an explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicle
to attack a civilian or military target in northern or central Israel.
The Israel Air Force is on alert for this. To date, Hezbollah has
dispatched five Iranian-made drones against Israel, three of them during
the Second Lebanon War in August 2006. Two were shot down by the air
force, and one crashed. The drones were loaded with dozens of kilograms
of high-grade explosives and apparently had been intended to crash in
the heavily populated Dan region. The IDF also has bolstered its forces
along the northern border, anticipating Hezbollah may launch a massive
rocket attack on the area. However, the army has no specific information
about the group's intentions in this regard. Meanwhile, the Lebanese
media announced that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has
appointed a successor to Mughniyah, but his identity has not been
revealed. Israeli sources said Mughniyah's successor is one of three
persons: Ibrahim Akil, who is in charge of southern Lebanon; Fuad Sukur,
a senior militia figure; or Talal Hamiyah, who was Mughniyah's deputy.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese media said none of these men are being
considered. The Lebanese daily Al-Safir reported yesterday that
Hezbollah has gone on high alert in southern Lebanon and evacuated all
of its local headquarters, fearing Israeli air strikes. According to the
report, the organization has mobilized 50,000 militiamen. Meanwhile, in
Syria, the investigation into Mughniyah's assassination continues. "The
investigation is being carried out with complete secrecy because of
Mughniyah's sensitive location before the ambush," Al-Akhbar reported
yesterday. Mughniyah had emerged from a meeting shortly before he was
killed. He was killed near the offices of the chief of Syrian
intelligence, Asif Shuwekat, who is President Bashar Assad's
brother-in-law. Several Palestinians were arrested for suspected
involvement in the killing, the newspaper reported.
'Syria
and Iran anticipating serious military clash with Israel'
Jerusalem Newswire
(February 17, 2008) - Damascus and Tehran
expect to soon be caught up in a military confrontation with Israel.
According to a report in Al-Ahkbar, a Lebanese newspaper said to be
affiliated with Hizb'allah, the Syrian and Iranian-sponsored terrorist
organization does not intend to let last week's execution of top
terrorist Amad Mugniyah be left unanswered. The concensus in the region
is that Israel was behind the blowing up of Mugniyah's car, and
Hizb'allah chief Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to make Israel pay in "open
war." Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the cabinet in Jerusalem Sunday
he has put the Israeli Air Force on alert for a possible Hizb'allah
attack against Jewish communities in the north. Barak said Israel was
prepared for the possibility that an explosives-laden pilotless drone
could be sent to explode inside an Israeli community.
Bad News in Gaza? Look For Tehran
World Jewish Congress Newsletter
(February 6, 2008) - Wherever you
find bad news in Gaza or bad news in the West Bank, you will find Tehran
and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist
groups who receive their money and marching orders from the Iranian
regime and do its bidding. Take the case of the fence in Gaza. In these
last weeks, the fence and border between the divided city of Rafah and
Gaza was blown up by Hamas, causing a refugee flood into the Sinai for,
we were told, flour and toothpaste. In fact, the cause was a deliberate,
preplanned provocation. This process started about one to 3 months ago
as Hamas, under the electronic gaze of the Egyptians, utilized torches
to cut the base supports of the fence and cause its collapse. Sick of
incessant rocket attacks emanating from Gaza, Israel was considering
re-entering and re-taking the Philadephi route to stop the weapons
smuggling through the tunnels. Hamas then began undermining the fence to
prepare explosions to kill the Israelis who might be coming into the
area. When that did not happen, they hatched this plot of fabricated
fuel shortages. The Egyptians knew about this for weeks since they had
the surveillance pictures but did not share the information. It is
interesting to note that Mubarak and Ahmadinejad had a conversation the
day before the fence fell. Also interesting is the fact that this fall
coincided with a conference in Damascus of Arab rejectionists of the
Annapolis peace conference. Over 300 Palestinian terrorists leaders were
convened by Iran and Syria in a gathering originally slated to take
place during the Annapolis meeting but which was postponed when Syria
decided to actually go to Annapolis. So it was held precisely at the
time of the breaking down of the wall in Gaza. The tunnels were not
constructed in such a way that could convey large-sized ordinance into
Gaza. But now that the wall is destroyed, we hear of large anti-aircraft
weapons, katyushas and other arms being transferred uninterrupted. Not
transfers of fuel - that "shortage" was an excuse manufactured to
justify the breach in the wall. Hamas will now be able to increase the
striking range of its katyushas and its anti-aircraft weapons. There is
a new chilling possibility of Hamas hitting Ashkelon. One wonders if
Egypt fully anticipated what problems might be created to its own
detriment. Many of those who flooded into Egypt are going to remain
there. Now that there are terrorists in the Sinai with large amounts of
explosives and other weapons that could not fit into a tunnel, cities in
Egypt as well as in Israel may become targets. The policy of letting
Israel bleed a little in order to appease the Muslim radicals could
backfire. Allowing this to go on encourages Hamas to continue its
violent provocations, so that Israel is again forced to be on the
defensive. Another Hamastan may be born in the Sinai, which would
provide them with a base from which to operate in Egypt and expand their
influence. Iran's proxies would have an even greater leg up over Abbas.
With the transfer of katyusha rockets into Gaza, what we now have is a
baby Bek'aa, situated four miles from Ashkelon, like the baby
Hezbollahstan in the north that was created with the same technology and
money coming from Iran, through Hezbollah. This is a long-term change -
the whole paradigm of the Middle East changes in the region because of
what happened in Gaza. Now the question is what can Israel do about it?
Frankly, its options are limited. One and a half million people in Gaza
are miserably abused by their leadership, the Hamas leaders, who are
committed to following the orders of Tehran's leaders who make
apocalyptic promises to wipe Israel off the map. Now they have
established at least the possibility of a firing platform about four
miles from the electric grid in Ashkelon, within easy shot of the Jewish
residents living there. The international community must take notice:
Gaza-Hamastan is a serious threat to the comity of the region -
engineered and financed by Tehran.
Ahmadinejad tells West: Accept Israel's 'imminent collapse'
Haaretz (January
30, 2008) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on the
West Wednesday to acknowledge Israel's "imminent collapse." Speaking to
a crowd on a visit to the southern port of Bushehr, where Iran's first
light-water nuclear power plant is being built by Russia, Ahmadinejad
further incited his listeners to "stop supporting the Zionists, as
[their] regime reached its final stage." "Accept that the life of
Zionists will sooner or later come to an end," the Iranian president
said in a televised speech. He added, "What we have right now is the
last chapter [of Israeli atrocities] which the Palestinians and regional
nations will confront and eventually turn in Palestine's favor." Iran
does not acknowledge Israel and Ahmadinejad has in the past sparked
international outcry by referring to the systematic murder of six
million Jews in World War II as a "myth" and calling for Israel to be
"wiped off the map." Iran is currently also mediating in the crisis over
the Gaza Strip, where Israel has imposed a blockade on border crossings
into the coastal territory, barring the entry of supplies into the
already impoverished area. Last week, Palestinian militants blew holes
in the barrier separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt, prompting hundreds
of thousands of Gazans to pour into Egypt in search of supplies.
Ahmadinejad also urged the Western powers to help build nuclear power
plants in his country saying it will be too late if they do not decide
to do so immediately. "If you will not come, this nation will build
nuclear plants based on its own resources and when you come some four
years later it will reject your request and not then give you any
opportunity," he said. "I am addressing leaders of two or three powers;
do you remember I sent you message and told you to stop be stubborn? If
you think that you can block the movement of Iranian nation, you are
wrong," the Iranian president continued. more... In Response to an Israeli Attack, Iran Can, With Syria's Help, Wipe Out Half of Israel MEMRI (January 23, 2008) - Following reports on Israel's January 17, 2008 test of the Jericho III missile, which has a range of 4,500 km, the Iranian website Tabnak, which is affiliated with Iranian Expediency Council secretary and former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezai, wrote that the missile's addition to Israel's arsenal does not change the balance of power between Israel and Iran. The website stated that in the event of a conflict with Israel, Iran would use its strategic alliance with Syria to fire missiles at Israel from Syrian territory.[1] It also hinted that, in addition to assistance from Syria, any attack by Israel would also bring retaliation by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hizbullah. [2] Further, in an interview on Al-Jazeera TV, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed the Israeli missile test, saying that "even before this missile test, the Zionist regime enjoyed this military technology, because of its support from several powers. But such measures will not improve its situation, and will not prevent its fall. The Zionist regime has lost the rationale on which its existence was based, and all nations identify it as criminal. Therefore, it will not achieve legitimacy for its existence through threats and sowing fear."[3] The following are the main points of the Tabnak article: [4]
"Therefore, it can be explicitly said that Israel's recent missile test, on January 17, changes Iran's missile defense balance [against Israel] not one whit, and does not impinge on a single one of its defense doctrines... For this reason, this missile test does not create a new situation or [new] result, in any arena of possible confrontation between Iran and Israel... "Thus [it appears that] the real idea behind this
Israeli missile test is psychological warfare [in order to affect]
public opinion in Israel, and not psychological warfare against Iran."
Ahmadinejad: Mideast countries will erupt like a volcano YNet
News (January 17, 2008) -
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in response to US President
George W. Bush's recent visit to the Middle East that "the
region's countries are about to erupt like a volcano", the Islamic
Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported Thursday. Speaking at a mosque
in Tehran Wednesday evening ahead of the Day of Ashura celebrations,
the Iranian president said the region's
countries would follow the Islamic Republic's lead and "stand firm
in the face of (Israel's)
murderous operations against the oppressed Palestinian nation and
its supporters." Meanwhile, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said the
West had failed in efforts to put pressure on the Islamic Republic
over its atomic activities. The West fears Tehran is seeking an atom
bomb and has imposed two sets of United Nations sanctions.
Iran says it aims only to generate electricity. "Those countries who so far have been
after imposing sanctions and putting pressure on Iran have not
achieved any success," chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili told
the official IRNA news agency at the start of a visit to Beijing.
"Today, global developments and Iran's logical behavior do not allow
anybody to do this." The Putin-Osama Connection Front Page Magazine (January 16, 2008) - Frontpage Interview’s guest today is Pavel Stroilov, a Russian exile in London and the editor and translator of Alexander Litvinenko’s book, Allegations. He was a friend of Litvinenko’s. FP: Pavel Stroilov, welcome to Frontpage Interview.Stroilov: I am very honoured, though I would have much preferred to see the author of the book, Alexander Litvinenko, here in my place. Alas, he cannot speak for himself anymore, so our sad duty is to act as his posthumous spokesmen. While Alexander was still alive, he made a number of extremely important allegations. If nothing else, his horrible death itself proves that those allegations should be taken very seriously and investigated most thoroughly. FP: Our thoughts and prayers are with Alexander and with his family. Against all odds, let us hope that his killers will one day be brought to justice. Let’s start our discussion with the FSB’s (Federal Security Service) links to Al-Qaeda. Stroilov: Alexander revealed, in his articles and interviews included in the Allegations, that at least two notorious Al Qaeda terrorists are secret agents of the FSB – one of whom, Aiman al Zawahiri, is bin Laden’s second-in-command. As the former leader of the terrorist organisation Egyptian Islamic Jihad, al Zawahiri was on international lists of most wanted terrorists for many years. In 1997, he suddenly re-surfaced in Russia, where he undertook a special training course at a secret FSB base in Dagestan. After that, he was sent to Afghanistan, and joined Al Qaeda as bin Laden’s number two. Meanwhile, the FSB officers who had supervised him in Dagestan were promoted and re-assigned to Moscow. It was from them that Alexander learned about al Zawahiri. These and other facts of FSB involvement in international terrorism, revealed by Alexander, have tremendous implications. Contrary to the view of many in the US, Russia is anything but a reliable ally of yours in the ‘war on terror’. The Kremlin is playing a treacherous double game: while enjoying the West’s support as ally, it secretly supports and manipulates the Al Qaeda through FSB agents of influence. As Alexander writes: “It is possible to destroy the whole international terrorism tomorrow, along with Russian Mafia. All you need to do is disband the Russian special services.” FP: Ok just a second. Alexander states that, “It is possible to destroy the whole international terrorism tomorrow, along with Russian Mafia. All you need to do is disband the Russian special services.” His point is well taken. The FSB does a lot to bolster Islamo-Fascism. And the FSB’s involvement here is significant, dangerous and reprehensible -- and we must be honest about it. But to imply that the threat of radical Islam toward the West would dissipate if the Russian special services were disbanded is a bit of an exaggeration, don’t you think? Alexander is making a strong point with a bit of hyperbole, correct? Stroilov: Yes, in a sense he is. I don’t think that terrorism would disappear immediately if you just close down the Kremlin and Lubyanka. However, that would certainly do the terrorists more damage than anything you have done yet, and that would open you the way to a final victory. Indeed, that would be much more than just cutting the enemy supplies. For the war against terrorism is all about intelligence: the most horrible terrorist is absolutely toothless without secrecy. Overthrowing the KGB regime in Russia would mean investigation of its crimes which, in turn, would give you such intelligence about the international terrorist networks which you could never obtain elsewhere. Litvinenko, an FSB officer who was not even involved in supervision of international terrorists, revealed information of tremendous importance about leaders of Al Qaeda. Can you imagine how much more information you would have if only you could interrogate those directly responsible, and search in their secret archives? If, as Alexander wrote, the ‘Kremlin is the centre of world terrorism’, taking over the Kremlin would mean capturing the enemy headquarters. You would know everything: names, chains of commands, communication channels, supply channels, hiding places, etc, etc. On the other hand, imagine what would happen if the truth about Moscow’s hand in organisations like Al Qaeda is made public. It is hardly a very fresh idea that ‘winning hearts and minds’ of the Muslims is the key to victory in the whole ‘war on terror’. To put it mildly, I strongly doubt that revelations about Al Qaeda leaders’ intimate relations with Moscow would boost their popularity. Rather than being ‘lions of Allah’, as they call each other, they would be exposed as moles of Putin. After that, suicide bombers would probably think twice before obeying their orders. But thinking twice is no good in suicide bombers’ profession. If you are serious about the global war, let us try and think strategically. The most important strategic target in that war is the Kremlin. That is not only the best way to start winning it, but, as far as I can see, the only way. Paraphrasing Alexander, we can say it is impossible to destroy the international terrorism even in a century unless you disband the Russian secret services first. FP: Russian special services are aiding international terrorism. But Islamist terror is also, on some realms, targeting Russia – and has also hit Russia. How do we make sense of all this? Stroilov: It is not the first time when Russian people and Russian special services find themselves on opposite sides. In fact, Russia is exactly the place where the FSB hand in terrorism, Islamist or otherwise, can be seen most clearly. The ‘Nord-Ost’ story is only one example, and not the brightest one. In 1999, the FSB blew up four apartment blocks in Russia, and then were caught red-handed attempting to blow-up the fifth. After that, they announced that the bomb was a fake (the expert technicians simply mistook sugar for an explosive mixture), and the whole operation was a training exercise. Before that, in mid-1990s, one FSB officer was killed trying to blow up a railroad bridge, and another one was convicted by court for blowing up a bus in Moscow. Alexander Litvinenko was well-known precisely for his investigation of the FSB terrorism in Russia, particularly the 1999 apartment blocks explosions. A big part of the Allegations is about it, and even more details are given in Blowing-up Russia. Terror from within by Litvinenko and Yuri Felshtinsky. The FSB is at war with Russian citizens, and that is more than just a figure of speech. They resort to any means in that war. They have created the terrorist threat in Russia, and then ‘defended’ us from it – in exchange for our obedience. FP: Tell us about the Prime Minister of Italy, Romano Prodi (also former President of the European Commission) and his relations with the KGB. Stroilov: Romano Prodi was described to Alexander by a senior KGB/FSB colleague, three star General Trofimov, as ‘our man in Italy’. He told Alexander that Prodi had ‘collaborated with the KGB’ and ‘carried out KGB missions’. Moreover, after 1996 the FSB had restored its relations with the old KGB agents of influence in the West. So, Gen. Trofimov and Alexander himself reckoned that Prodi might still be dangerous. In February 2006, Alexander was interviewed about that by Mario Scaramella, a consultant to the Guzzanti Commission of Italian Parliament, which investigated the KGB’s activities in Italy. The video-record of that interview was kept secret at the time, and intended only for a closed-doors parliamentary investigation. (After Alexander’s death it was made public, and the transcript of it is included in the Allegations.) However, two months later Alexander encouraged Gerard Batten, Member of European Parliament for London, to make his accusation against Prodi public. Gerard did that on 3 April 2006 in his speech to the European Parliament. The Parliament declined to investigate the matter, as Gerard insisted it should do; nor did Prodi himself ever comment on it as long as Alexander was alive. However, just eight days after Litvinenko’s death, Italian left-wing newspapers ‘revealed’ how Sen. Guzzanti and Scaramella were ‘plotting’ to discredit Prodi by alleging he had links to the KGB. Prodi himself, in a clumsy imitation of fury, announced he would instruct his lawyers to take legal action over these allegations. In event, no such legal action was taken. Mario Scaramella was arrested as soon as he returned to Italy on Christmas of the same year. He is still kept in prison without a trial, and may stay there for the rest of his life. For the Italian legal system enables the prosecution to keep him in jail for three months on some particular charges, then drop those charges, put forward some new ones, and jail him for another three months. So it goes on and on for a year now, against the background of a perpetual propaganda campaign against Scaramella. Indeed, he is one of the first political prisoners in the emerging Gulag of the EUSSR. FP: Can you talk a bit about the political prisoners in Russia today? Stroilov: There are dozens. We know this much, although there is no commonly accepted list, as different human rights organisations have different criteria to distinguish political prisoners from other victims of Russia’s perverted ‘justice’. However, at least one Penal Code article, introduced under Putin, is used only to persecute dissenters: ‘instigation to extremism’. Boris Stomakhin, a journalist who edited a small on-line newsletter, is now imprisoned for his critical writings, which were ruled to constitute that ill-defined ‘crime’. Trying to get away from the FSB gangsters who came to arrest him, Stomakhin jumped out of the window, and broke his spine and leg. Being practically handicapped, he is now denied any decent treatment in the harsh conditions of what we call PutLAG. Some others are those who went dangerously close to the Kremlin’s darkest secrets. Thus, Col. Yevgeny Taratorin, a police detective, was imprisoned in a notorious corruption trial. However, Alexander Litvinenko argued that the corruption charges against Taratorin were fabricated, while the real reasons for his imprisonment was his investigation of the 2002 ‘Nord-Ost’ theatre hostage-taking. Apparently Taratorin had gone too close to uncovering the FSB role in that crime. Then there is over a dozen of political prisoners persecuted in the notorious YUKOS case, for their association with the once uncontrollable oil company. There is also a number of academics, such as Igor Sutyagin and Valentin Danilov, imprisoned in the course of Putin’s spy-mania campaign for their collaboration with foreign colleagues. There are ethnic Chechens, such as Zara Murtazaliyeva or Zaurbek Talkhigov, who were deemed ‘terrorists’ and imprisoned only for their Chechen origins. Apart from that, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of Chechen POWs and civilians captured in North Caucasus and kept in the so-called filtration camps there. About them, we simply know very little or nothing. It is also possible that many political prisoners in Russia itself remain unknown. FP: The FSB role in that the 2002 ‘Nord-Ost’ theatre hostage-taking? What role are you exactly alluding to and what would the FSB want to cover up in this instance? Stroilov: The publisher would probably want me to answer by recommending to read Chapter 2 of Allegations, but I shall briefly re-tell the story now. At least two of the ‘Nord-Ost’ terrorists were FSB agents-provocateurs, and both of them miraculously survived the FSB assault on the building. One of them, Khanpasha Terkibayev, suddenly emerged in Strasbourg a few months later, accompanying Russian official delegation to Council of Europe. There he was recognised and interviewed by Anna Politkovskaya, and admitted he had been in the theatre during the siege. Russian prosecutors were not interested, but because a US citizen had been killed in ‘Nord-Ost’, the FBI also investigated it. So, the FBI said they wanted to interrogate Terkibayev, but a few days later he was killed in a car accident in Chechnya. Apparently, it had been Terkibayev who provided the hostage-takers with all the necessary logistics in Moscow. If not for him, they would not be able to capture the theatre at all. Another agent-provocateur, Abubakar, was identified by Mikhail Trepashkin. Many years before that, FSB detective Trepashkin investigated Abubakar as a gangster and arms dealer – and discovered that Abubakar enjoyed FSB protection. More details of that story are given in the book. Better still, Trepashkin himself has been released from the PutLAG a few weeks ago, so you can ask him. As for Col. Taratorin, I understand that he tried to trace the explosives, and the traces also led him too close to the FSB. FP: Your thoughts on the situation in Chechnya ? Stroilov: Like Alexander, I approach the situation in Chechen Republic of Ichkeria from a strictly legal viewpoint. Russia has recognised Chechnya as an independent state in the 1997 Peace Treaty. The subsequent invasion and the present Russian occupation are totally illegal. The only legitimate government of Chechnya is the one supported by its last democratically elected Parliament, i.e. the government-in-exile led by Ahmed Zakayev. Indeed, none of those ‘elections’ and ‘referenda’ which Russia held in Chechnya after the 1999 invasion were recognised by independent observers. Anyway, no fair vote is possible under a military occupation. Another important thing to understand is that the war is by far not over. The Kremlin propaganda about peace and prosperity finally coming to Chechnya under the excellent occupational administration is as false as the 100% turnout at the last ‘elections’ and 99% support for Putin’s regime. In reality, the war and genocide are still going on; people on both sides are being killed every day. Moreover, this war has now spread all over North Caucasus. Alexander’s book is as much about Chechnya as it is about Russia. He reveals lots of details about the dirty tactics which FSB uses in this war: from terrorism and agents-provocateurs to zachistkas and assassination squads. FP: Who killed Alexander Litvinenko? How exactly did they do it and why? Stroilov: On his deathbed, Alexander himself named Vladimir Putin as the murderer. Moreover, as is revealed in the Allegations’ last chapter, Putin had been trying to kill him for all those years. In July 2006, extra-judicial murders of people like Alexander were openly made an official policy of Russian regime. A law was passed, authorising the president to use Russian special forces to assassinate his enemies all over the world – and there was little doubt that Alexander’s name was high on the hit list. As Alexander himself commented prophetically in a Radio Liberty interview: ‘If they listen to me now, let them know: I hire no bodyguards to protect myself, and I never hide anywhere. I live very openly, all the journalists know where to find me. So, gentlemen, if you come to Britain to kill me, you will have to do that openly.’ But the most crucial piece of evidence against Putin is the poison, the Polonium-210, which is a very rare substance, precisely traceable to its source in Russia. And indeed it was traced down to a state-controlled, top security nuclear establishment. The use of Polonium to poison Alexander could only be authorised from the very top. Of course, Putin and his accomplices never expected the poison to be identified. That was why, immediately after Alexander’s death, Putin betrayed himself by publicly claiming there was no evidence of violent death. The actual assassination was perpetrated by a team of at least three people: Andrei Lugovoi, Dmitry Kovtun, and someone who used several false identities and whose real name is unknown. Apparently, Kovtun was responsible for the transportation of the Polonium, Lugovoi – for approaching the target, whom he knew personally, and the third one actually put the poison in Alexander’s cup. Putin probably had several motives to murder Alexander, the most obvious of which is this. Litvinenko knew too much and, worse still, he tried to let the public know too much. If you pretend to be a valiant fighter against terrorism, and there is a man who knows and talks about your covert links with Al Qaeda, what else would you do? And the Al Qaeda business is only one of the secrets which Alexander knew and revealed. FP: What interests does Putin have in helping Al Qaeda and other jihadi terror groups? Stroilov: To stir up trouble, in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular. The most obvious consequence of that are sky-high oil prices, which are both the source of KGB junta’s wealth and the salvation for their regime. Apart from that economic interest, this is a similar scheme to the one used against Russian citizens. We must stay united in front of the grave terrorist threat, right? It is not the time to reproach Putin for murders, tortures, political prisoners or genocide, is it? We must be realists: we cannot afford a new Cold War against Russia in a situation like that, can we? That is the reaction they want from you, and regrettably, they have not been quite unsuccessful. FP: What would your advice be to the U.S. and to the West in general in terms of its policy toward Putin? Stroilov: It is no good arguing if the Second Cold War is good or bad for us, for it has already started. What we should think about is how to win it as quickly and painlessly as possible. In my view, it would be wise to set the following immediate objectives in your policy towards Putin (and his future successor): 1. Total isolation: throw him out of the G7, Council of Europe, WTO and wherever else you’ve made him a member or observer. Oddly enough, they are rather sensitive about such things. Cut the number and level of meetings with Russian officials, starting from summits and ministerial ones. The KGB people don’t see these meetings like you do: for them, every meeting is a stage in your virtual recruitment. They cannot be your partners, they can only be your case officers. 2. Support all those who are already fighting them, from democratic opposition inside Russia to those neighbouring countries, such as Georgia or East European states, which resist Kremlin’s pressure. I even think it is time to establish relations, in an appropriate form, with the Chechen government-in-exile. I don’t think that you follow the Chechen politics very carefully, so perhaps your readers are unaware of the recent crisis, when Islamic fundamentalists unsuccessfully tried to take over the leadership of the Resistance. Instead, it resulted in the formation of Ahmed Zakayev’s government, which is pro-democracy, pro-independence, and has explicitly dissociated itself from the so-called jihadism. The West will hardly ever find a better kind of partners in the Muslim world. If you support Zakayev, that would be a very strong blow on the Kremlin. In a situation when Putin covertly supports Al Qaeda, what could be a better response than demonstration of your solidarity with his own worst enemies, whom he slanders as terrorists, who represent the small nation suffering from FSB genocide, and who abide by the laws of war even in their desperate situation? Besides, if you support a Muslim nation in its war against Kremlin’s tyranny, that may win you plenty of Muslim ‘hearts and minds’ elsewhere. 3. Do everything you can to make oil prices drop. Persuade the Saudis, develop your own oil production, do anything you can think of. Every dollar-per-barrel down means a blow on the KGB regime, and perhaps many human lives saved. FP: Your thoughts on Time making Putin the person of the year? Stroilov: Well done. They’ve found a worthy successor to Hitler, Stalin, and Khomeini. FP: Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Russia in general? Stroilov: Optimistic (though I don’t like the word). The Putin-Medvedev regime is doomed, and whatever will replace it, it cannot be worse. Even if the country collapses into dozens of realms, as it very well may, in many of them things will certainly get better than the present state. But of course, it is very important to do everything possible to help democratic opposition to develop in Russia, so as to have a force able to ensure stability after the KGB downfall. FP: Pavel Stroilov, thank you for joining Frontpage Interview. Stroilov: Thank you.
Turkey Firm On Boosting Ties With Iran Iran
Mania (January 10, 2008)
- Despite the US pressure, Turkey is firm on bolstering relationship
with Iran since the neighbors have not fought since 17th century,
PressTV reported. "Turkey and Iran have neither fought nor changed
border since the 1639 Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin (also known as the Treaty
of Zuhab)," Turkey's President Abdullah Gul said to remind that
Ankara-Tehran relations is older than US history. Gul's remarks at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars came as Ankara is under
mounting US pressure to refrain from investing billions in Iranian
energy projects, Today's Zaman reported. Turkey, the only NATO country
bordering Iran, has not buckled under US pressures to cut doing
businesses with Tehran. Earlier in November, Iran and Turkey signed an
energy deal including building power plants and improving electricity
transport infrastructure. The Turkish prime minister also reiterated in
September that his country would continue collaboration with Iran in the
oil and gas sectors. "Iran is an important trade partner for Turkey and
Turkey cannot ignore this fact," Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.
U.S. Wary of Warming Syrian-Turkish Ties NPR (January
10, 2008) - One place President George Bush is not visiting on
his tour of the Middle East is Syria. Relations are icy, with Washington
and Damascus at odds over Lebanon, the Arab-Israel conflict, the Iraq
war and Iran. But Syria is rapidly improving ties with a key U.S. ally
in the region, Turkey. And that is a development that could have
substantial repercussions, particularly for Washington.
Syrians Have Much to Gain Syria's
ambassador in Washington, Imad Moustapha, characterizes his country's
ties with Turkey as a "honeymoon" and the "best possible relations
between any two neighborly countries in the world." Such enthusiasm over
ties with Turkey is a worry for the United States, says Omer Taspinar, a
Turkish analyst at the U.S. War College. "I think the Syrians have a lot
to gain. That's why it is in their interests to send a signal they are
not isolated and they have Turkey on their side. "Syria is perceived as
the underdog against the U.S. So, the more the U.S. says, 'Don't talk to
Syria,' I think, the more it will become attractive for Turkish public
opinion," Taspinar says. And that may be why Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad got such a warm welcome on a recent trip to Turkey. With his
attractive young wife, Assad toured the capital with Turkey's president
and prime minister. The TV cameras were there as they opened a new
Turkish shopping center. The coverage of smiling presidents and their
wives surprised even Syrians, says George Sageur, a Syrian-American
businessman. The response to the president and his wife — as the face of
Syria — has been tremendous in Turkey, he says. They were "received
very, very well indeed." Iraq War Marked Change in
Syrian-Turkish Relations It's a marked improvement from
tensions a decade ago. The two countries seemed on the verge of war
after Turkey accused Syria of harboring a Kurdish rebel leader. But that
was all before the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Now, Turkey and Syria have
shared concerns. Both have sizeable Kurdish populations. Both worry
about the nationalist goals of the Kurds in neighboring Iraq. And both
are wary of U.S. plans in the region, says Taspinar. "The real impetus
for these visits is the Kurdish question — let's not miss the real
picture here. I think Turks are very much disillusioned with this whole
Iraq episode." Syria has benefited from that disillusionment. Because of
expanded trade relations, Turkish language classes in Damascus are now
popular for Syrian Arabic speakers. Syria's deputy prime minister was in
Turkey last week to sign an agreement for a joint natural gas pipeline.
"The relationship with Turkey has an economic aspect, but it is also
very important for domestic legitimacy," says Josh Landis, an American
academic who writes an influential blog on Syria. Landis says the new
partnership with Turkey has helped Syria's president blunt a domestic
problem: Many of Syria's majority Sunni Muslims do not like Assad's
close relations with Shiite Iran. more...
Olmert: No peace unless attacks stop Associated
Press (January 9, 2008) - Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Wednesday that "there will be no peace"
unless attacks are halted from all parts of the Palestinian territories,
including those not controlled by his negotiating partners in the
Palestinian leadership. But he said that both sides "are very seriously
trying to move forward" on a deal. "Israel does not tolerate and will
not tolerate the continuation of these vicious attacks," Olmert said,
after two and a half hours of talks with President Bush. "We will not
hesitate to take all the necessary measures. There will be no peace
unless terror is stopped. And terror will have to be stopped
everywhere." On the first day of his eight-day Mideast trip aimed at
pushing the Israelis and Palestinians toward an agreement, Bush declared
there is a "historic moment, a historic opportunity." But he also said:
"I'm under no illusions. This is going to be hard work." "America cannot
dictate the terms of what a state will look like," he added. "We'll
help." Earlier Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike in northern Gaza killed
two Palestinians and wounded four others, a move the Israeli army said
was taken in response to Palestinian militants who had bombarded the
rocket-scarred southern Israeli city of Sderot with rocket and mortar
fire. Bush said he and Olmert also discussed Iran's nuclear weapons
ambitions and an incident Sunday when Iranian boats harassed and
provoked three American Navy ships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. officials said Iran threatened to explode the vessels, but the
incident ended peacefully. more... Ezekiel 38:8 Beyond the dividing of Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state, one of the prerequisites of the Magog invasion by Iran, Turkey, Russia and others is that Israel is living in safety. This works to bring about the false peace as well so I have a feeling that the rockets are going to soon stop and that will help spur the division of the land to create a situation of relative, temporary peace.
Hamas averages 8.2 missiles a day in 2007, steps up Iran-Syrian-backed
preparations for full-scale war
DEBKAfile (January 1, 2008) -
The annual report of Israel’s domestic intelligence service, ShinShin
BetBet, paints a troubling picture of a Hamas-ruled government in Gaza
expanding its efforts to build a war machine capable of taking on Israel
in full-scale military combat, with active input from Iran and Syria. In
the outgoing year, Hamas and its allies fired more than 1.300 Qassam
missiles and 1,700 mortar shells from Gaza, subjecting Israeli
communities in an expanding radius to a daily average of 8.2
projectiles. At the same time, the ShinShin BetBet and IDF were
strikingly successful in their preventive campaign. They thwarted 29
major attacks inside Israel originating in Gaza, and the number of
Israelis killed by terrorists declined from 50 in 2005 and 24 in 2006 to
13 in 2007. Nonetheless, the Palestinians mounted a total of 2,946
Palestinian terrorist attacks, 9 less than 2006, including a single
suicide bombing in Eilat and another three that were intercepted in
time. No let-up is expected next year. In 2007, Hamas smuggled into Gaza
more than 80 tons of explosives for use in the fabrication of missiles
and bombs, including roadside devices laid down against an Israeli
military incursion. Al Qaeda and its Palestinian affiliates recently
stepped up their participation in attacks, more conspicuously since
Fatah al Islam set up operations in Gaza after being thrown out of its
northern haven in Lebanon four months ago. Israeli officials said that
Osama bin Laden’s threat to “liberate every inch of Palestine” is being
taken seriously. The ShinShin BetBet reports that hundreds of Hamas
operatives were smuggled through the Sinai tunnels out to Iran and Syria
and back for special 2-6 month courses at facilities near Tehran and
Damascus in commando combat and the manufacture and launching of
missiles. Among them were officers and naval commandos. The ShinShin
BetBet report notes that Hamas’ smuggling projects spread out from Gaza
to the West Bank, where a new terror machine is taking shape. Local
terrorist elements are being taught to manufacture and use Qassam
missiles and high-trajectory weapons, thereby bringing Israel’s central
coastal cities, including Tel Aviv, within range. Scores of West Bank
Hamas activitists were also sent to Iran and Syria to study missile
manufacture. During most of 2007, Iran’s Lebanese surrogate, Hizballah,
funded the West Bank project at the rate of the equivalent of $10
million per month. The transfers slowed in recent months. The ShinShin
BetBet reports that Hizballah is diverting more funds to building its
own substantial new infrastructures in SouthSouth LebanonLebanon and
north of the LitaniLitani RiverRiver. |