Iran, Syria tauten grip on Lebanon, Tehran woos Christian president
DEBKAfile
(November 22, 2008)
- Tehran and Damascus are going all out to get their hooks
into Lebanon’s Christian politicians and wean them away from their’
traditional ties with the West. President Michel Suleiman this week
accepted an Iranian invitation to visit Tehran this month, while another
Lebanese Christian leader, Hizballah’s ally Gen. Michel Aoun, arranged
to visit Damascus.
Has the U.N. Found the Smoking Gun in the Syrian ‘Nuclear’ Incident?
The Media Line
(November 11, 2008)
- There are widespread reports in the international media
that the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) inspectors found
traces of weapons-grade uranium at a site in Syria, which Israel is
believed to have destroyed in an air strike a year ago. The reports
suggest the uranium was discovered in June, but the story has only just
been leaked to the media. Confirmation is expected to come from the
IAEA’s head Muhammad Al-Barade’i when the United Nations’ watchdog meets
at the end of this month. Since the bombing, Syria has insisted the site
was used for agricultural purposes, but media reports have persisted
about North Korean involvement, as well as links to Iran’s nuclear
program. Russia: A Future Radical Muslim Superpower? Front Page Magazine (November 9, 2008) - Frontpage Interview's guest today is Ilshat Alsayef, one of the founding members of Muslims Against Sharia. He was born in of the Asian republics of the former Soviet Union. A military officer for most of his adult life, Mr. Alsayef started his military career as a Second Lieutenant during the Soviet-Afghan war and retired as a Lieutenant-Colonel after the First Chechen War. FP: Ilshat Alsayef, welcome to Frontpage Interview. Alsayef: Thank you very much for having me here. FP: Tell us about the state of radicalization of Muslims in Russia and other ex-Soviet republics. Alsayef: There were two waves of radicalization of the ex-Soviet Muslims. The first wave started after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. After the fall of communism, former Soviet Asian republics, now independent countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) as well as autonomous regions of Russia (Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia), experienced a resurgence of religious freedom. Not being able to freely practice their religion for a few generations, some of the local Muslims went overboard. Salafi groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and later al Qaeda, became popular among newly-minted religious zealots. While the conflicts in Asian countries were mostly religious vs. secular, the Chechen conflict also had the independence element. The second wave of radicalization started at the turn of the century. Some people claim that it was a result of the American War on Terror, which many Muslims interpret as the American War on Islam, but in reality the reason is skyrocketing oil revenues of Wahhabi states. Centuries-old local mosques are being replaced by modern, Wahhabi-built mosques. Old imams who survived the communists are being replaced by Wahhabi clerics. This is not only true for predominantly Muslim countries like Tajikistan, but also for autonomous regions inside of Russia like Bashkiria and Tatarstan, where most people consider themselves more Russian than Muslim. You can see similar developments in former Yugoslavia, where moderate imams with little financial backing are being replaced by radicals with virtually unlimited financing. If current demographic trends hold, Muslims in Russia may become a majority by the mid-century. And if current radicalization trends hold, Russia may become a war theatre comparable to Chechnya or Lebanon, but on a much larger scale. FP: Expand for us a bit please on the demographic trends in Russia. Muslims may be the majority in Russia by mid-century? What will this mean? Alsayef: The native Russian population is on the decline. About a year ago, the government started to provide a special subsidy for a second child; 250,000 rubles, which is about two average yearly salaries. Attracted by the economic opportunities, there is a steady stream of Muslims from the former Soviet republics and predominantly Muslim parts of the Russian Caucasus. Those Muslims tend to have much larger families than native Russian Muslims. Small Muslim communities of Moscow and St. Petersburg that comprised less 1% of the population 20 years ago have increased more than ten-fold. The new generation of Muslims is more religious. Unfortunately, since most of the mosques are either completely or partially funded by the Wahhabis, the new generation is also more radical. 20 years ago, Russian Muslims were completely assimilated, both culturally and linguistically. The new generation tends to create its own communities. Those "enclaves" are easier radicalized. If the trends of isolation and radicalization continue along with current demographic trends and rising oil prices, it is quite possible that by mid-century Russia will become a radical Muslim superpower. FP: How can the current radicalization trend be stopped? The key is to stop skyrocketing oil revenues for Wahhabi states, yes? But how? Alsayef: I could never understand why America spends a quarter of a trillion dollars a year on Persian Gulf oil while not using its own oil resources. Especially when some of this money goes to finance radical Islam worldwide (including in America itself) and the American economy suffers from high fuels prices. Luckily, Russia does not have oil dependency. The long-term solution to stop the flow of petro-dollars to the Wahhabis is to create a non-petroleum energy solution. It will probably not happen in our lifetime, but it doesn't mean that it shouldn't be worked on today. The short-term solution is to combat radical Islam inside every democratic country. One part is to enact legislation to criminalize the spread of radical Islam. It is not an easy task, especially in America where Freedom of Speech is the cornerstone of the Constitution. However, some of the speech could be criminalized, i.e., a death threat to an individual. Advocating Sharia is a death threat to Democratic society. If you can protect an individual, you should be able to protect the society as a whole. The other needed step is to empower moderate Muslims to combat Islamism in the public square. Unfortunately, neither the Russian nor the American government seems to distinguish between moderate Muslims and 'soft' Jihadis. In fact, Putin went so far as to condemn the publication of Prophet Mohammed cartoons. While Russia is empowering Iran, America is empowering Saudi Arabia, which is even worse. On top of that, America is legitimizing 'soft' Jihadis and advance of Sharia by putting them in charge of government and academic programs and inviting them to major political events. FP: Where exactly does Russia stand in the War on Terror? There is, for instance, much evidence that the Putin regime is in league with Islamists on many levels. (Click here to see Pavel Stroilov interview.) Alsayef: I wouldn't call this evidence. When someone portrays that "FSB blew up four apartment blocks in Russia, and then were caught red-handed attempting to blow-up the fifth" as a fact, the rest of his "facts" must be taken with a grain of salt. Did the FSB have the ability to blow up four buildings in Moscow? Absolutely. Would the FSB blow up those buildings? I find it highly improbable. Could the FSB get caught red-handed attempting to blow-up the fifth building? Absolutely not. Who would they get caught by? The cops? The cops can't touch them. By the FSB itself? Not bloody likely. The "fact" that the FSB blew up those buildings is as much of a fact as the "fact" that the CIA blew up the Twin Towers. It is nothing more than a conspiracy theory, and Mr. Stroilov should know better than present it as a fact. The claim that "The Putin-Medvedev regime is doomed" shows that Mr. Stroilov seems to prefer wishful thinking to reality. Barring an act of God, Putin will rule Russia for a long time, no matter what title he comes up with, president, prime minister, or Tzar. FP: Well, the connection between the FSB and the blow up of four buildings in Moscow appears to me to be pretty solid in terms of what I have studied, and the Twin Towers conspiracy theory analogy doesn’t match in anyway. But we’ll leave this for another forum. Pavel Stroilov is welcome to contribute to our pages on this issue if he wishes. Let’s get to Putin and the tie to Islamists. Alsayef: In terms of the tie between Putin to the Islamists, first, and pretty much the only one, is Bushehr. Everybody knows that the Iranian nuclear program, euphemistically speaking, goes beyond energy. The Russians know that. The Americans know that. Even the IAEA knows that. What the Russians don't seem to understand, or maybe simply don't care about, is that an Iranian-made nuke could be detonated in Moscow just as easily as it could be detonated in Washington. Since I'm not privy to the Russian-Iranian nuclear deal, I might not be aware of some safeguards. For example, the Russians might control the weaponized nuclear material production and would be able to match the bomb signature to the reactor. However it is unlikely for Iranians to use a nuclear weapon without plausible deniability, therefore it probably will be given to a third party. This third party most likely would be a radical Islamic group that might ignore the wishes of its masters and detonate the bomb anywhere. Second is Syria. Syria is a Muslim country and it has a fascist regime, but it is secular. However, Syria-Iranian proxy Hizballah is an Islamist group and weapons sold to Syria have been known to turn up in Hizballah arsenal. Third is Venezuela. Again, Venezuela's government is hardly Islamist, but Chavez offered Venezuelan passports to radical Muslims who want to go to the United States. As for al-Zawahiri, being the FSB secret agent, that's just another unsubstantiated and highly improbable rumor. FP: Russia’s stance on the War on Terror? Alsayef: If the terror is within Russian borders, Russia is very forcefully against it. The famous Putin's phrase about the terrorists is "budem mochit' v sortire" which roughly translates into "we'll whack them in the toilet." But if the terror is outside of Russia and it ties up American resources, then we have a different story. After all, Putin still sees America as Russia’s main rival; the fact that the feelings are not mutual, is somewhat of an insult to him. Russia doesn't mind that much. However, the biggest threat to Russia is not America, it is radicalizing Muslim population within its own borders as well as in Russia's former satellites. Putin is focusing on America while overlooking a growing Islamist threat at home. As the last decades show, radicalization of Muslims always translates into bloodshed, but Putin's government seems to think that it is immune. FP: Ilshat Alsayef, thank you for joining Frontpage Interview. Alsayef: Thank you Jamie.
Syria moves more tank-artillery forces south to Israel border
Debkafile
(November 5, 2008)
- Lebanese sources and eye witnesses report Syrian tanks,
artillery and commando units have taken up battle positions in four
villages around Hasbaya opposite Mt. Hermon and northern Israel.
According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, Syrian tanks and
artillery units continued to move into their new positions Sunday
and Monday, Nov. 2-3, so completing their deployment the full length
of the Syrian-Lebanese border. Elements of the Syrian 10th, 12th and
14th Divisions and the 3rd Army - withdrawn last week from the
600-km long Syrian-Iraq border - are now poised opposite Israeli
positions holding the disputed Shebaa Farms enclave on Mt. Hermon.
Syria reportedly boosts troop deployment near Lebanese border
The Jerusalem Post
(October 31, 2008) - Syria has boosted
its troop deployment near the Lebanese border up to the Beka valley
region, the Lebanese As-Safir newspaper said Friday. Some 3,000
heavily armed troops were reportedly deployed in the area. A
Lebanese army official was quoted as saying that Syria was deploying
its troops along the border with eastern Lebanon "like it did in
September on the northern border." However, he said the increased
troop presence was aimed at stopping smuggling and apprehending
fugitives along the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Libya offers to host Russian military base
Breitbart
(October 31, 2008) - Libyan leader
Moamer Kadhafi, who visits Moscow Friday for the first time since 1985,
will offer to host a Russian naval base in his north African country, a
Russian newspaper reported. "Libya is ready to host a Russian naval
military base," the Kommersant reported, citing a source close to the
preparations for Kadhafi's first visit here since the days of the Soviet
Union.
Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test
Israel National News
(October 30, 2008) - A weekend 5.0
Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an
Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project. The
report is an
Israel Insider exclusive. This past Saturday night, southern Iran
experienced what was reported as a significant earthquake - a seismic
event measuring 5.0 on the Richter scale. Its epicenter was just north
of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Abu Dhabi
and Oman and which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf.
Egyptian War Games Cause For Concern in Israel, Lawmaker Says
CNS News
(October 29, 2008) - Israel is upset
over Egyptian military exercises in which the simulated “enemy” is
Israel, and some are calling on the U.S. to reconsider its aid to Egypt
because of it. Israel and Egypt – two U.S. regional allies – signed a
U.S.-sponsored peace treaty in 1979 – Israel’s first with an Arab
nation.
Mideast: Putting the 'Peace Puzzle' Together
CBN News
(October 28, 2008) - As U.S.
presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama begin the last week
of campaigning before next Tuesday's election, events shaping up in
Israel, Syria and the Palestinian Authority will no doubt factor into
the winning candidate's challenges in the White House.
U.S. attacks inside Syria
WorldNet Daily
(October 26, 2008) - The U.S. Army
today confirmed it carried out a raid inside a Syrian village near the
Iraqi border, killing at least eight. Today's operation is the first in
which American forces so openly attacked militants on Syrian soil,
clearly broadening the scope of the U.S. military campaign in Iraq.
Russia blasts off back to the future
Scotland on Sunday
(October 26, 2008) - As they tracked
Russian military maneuvers last week, the US government's
Kremlin-watchers might have been forgiven for wondering if they were
seeing recycled newsreels. A huge exercise, Stability 2008, spread tens
of thousands of troops, thousands of vehicles and scores of combat
aircraft across nearly all 11 time zones of Russian territory in the
largest war game since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was no
specified enemy, but the Russian forces appeared to be enacting a
nationwide effort to quell unrest along Russia's southern border – and
to repulse a US-led attack by Nato forces, according to experts in
Moscow and Washington. | Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog | America | Lebanon is a problem for the entire region. Hezbollah operates freely from Lebanon, and Israel routinely violates Lebanese territory and airspace in an attempt to keep Hezbollah in check. The summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel inflicted massive damage on Lebanon in a conflict that seemed to diminish some of the mystique surrounding Israeli military might in the region. A significant portion of the Lebanese Army is sympathetic to Hezbollah, and the Lebanese government is fragmented and, for all intents and purposes, dysfunctional. United Nations peacekeepers are present in southern Lebanon, and Iran exercises some influence as well. Syria has been attempting in recent months to improve its standing in the region and in the eyes of the international community. Syria's alignment with Iran has been strained at times recently, and negotiations with Israel have not played very well with hard liners within the Syrian intelligence and military establishments. The key to much of Syria's power and wealth is its influence in Lebanon, as well as its degree of control over Lebanon, and it would not be far fetched to believe that Syria would move its military forces across the border. If Syria did act, there would probably few
repercussions, and any condemnations would be largely symbolic. Israel
would not intervene, and probably could not if it wanted to.
Politically, Israel is just too fragile at the moment. The United States
is preoccupied with Afghanistan, Iraq, and a financial crisis at home,
and the United Nations force in southern Lebanon is more for show than
anything else. There is a window of opportunity right now for Syria to
reestablish control over Lebanon. That window could close suddenly, and
Syria may well be positioning itself to act before time runs out.
Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria
Space War
(October 16, 2008) - Until Russia can revitalize
its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the
Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than
being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet the
Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a
diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal
and to America's ally Israel. The increased Russian naval presence in
the region means that the Kremlin is seeking to cultivate Syria as a
close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the
Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in the Black Sea port of
Sevastopol.
From Syrian fishing port to naval power base: Russia moves into the
Mediterranean
Guardian UK (October
8, 2008) - Military foothold part of closer ties with Damascus.
Move could deter Israel from attacks on Syria. During balmy evenings in
the sleepy Syrian port of Tartous locals promenade along the seafront or
suck on hookahs discussing the two great pillars of their society:
business and family. | Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
Syria poised to invade Lebanon
WorldNet Daily
(September 24, 2008) - New concerns are being raised by the
possibility that Syria may launch troops into Lebanon by using a pretext
of concern over assaults on a Lebanese faction sympathetic to the Syrian
leadership, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
Confirmed reports reveal that there are some 10,000 Syrian special
forces troops massed on the northern border of Lebanon. A small Alawite
faction near the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, has been in repeated
gun fights with Sunni militants. The area's majority population is
Sunni. The Alawites are of the same tribe as Syrian President Bashar
Assad. Most of Syria's top security and military officials also are
Alawite.
Ten
Russian warships have docked at Syrian port
DEBKAfile
(September 19, 2008) - Israeli military and naval commanders
were taken by surprise by Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov's disclosure that 10
Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus,
DEBKAfile’s military sources report. Moscow and Damascus have worked
fast to put in place the agreement reached in Moscow on Sept. 12 by
Russian navy commander, Adm. Vladimir Wysotsky and Syrian naval
commander Gen. Taleb al-Barri to provide the Russian fleet with a
long-term base at Syrian ports. Israel was not aware that this many
vessels were involved in the deal. Syrian Tripwire For WWIII Op Ed News - Lord Stirling (September 19, 2008) - Russian Rear Admiral Andrei Baranov has disclosed that 10 Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus. Russian engineering crews are widening and dredging the port to accommodate additional Russian warships. The Russians are making clear their intentions of using the large Russian naval presence in Tartus as a deterrent to Israeli air strikes against Syria using the powerful anti-air missiles on-board the Russian naval warships. These missile systems can sweep the sky over most of Syria and knock down Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighters.
This changes the balance of power in the air over Syria. This also
places a tripwire for World War III in place in the Middle East. Any
attack on Iran will also involve a war with Syria and Lebanon. This will
now involve Russian military forces in direct support of the
Iranian/Syrian alliance. Russia is a major nuclear power with the power
to destroy every American and NATO city. George Bush has just agreed to
sell Israel 1,000 very advanced American bunker buster bombs for use in
the coming war with Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.
Bush Agrees to War on Iran
Op Ed News - Lord Stirling
(September 17, 2008) - The United States has agreed to sell
to Israel 1,000 of the very advanced bunker buster GBU-39 bombs. This is
a major development as the Bush Administration had denied previous
recent Israeli requests for large numbers of this weapon system. The
GBU-39 has a stand off range of 110 km and uses pop-out wings with
extremely accurate fire and forget technology. It is capable of
penetrating 90 cm of steel reinforced concrete. This indicates that the
Israeli Government has succeeded in its request that America allow it to
attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The GBU-39s will be used extensively
in attacks on Iranian targets, as well as on Syrian and Hezbollah high
value targets in both Syria and Lebanon. | Iran | Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
IDF intelligence: Syria strengthening ties with radical axis
YNet News
(September 15, 2008) - Head of Military Intelligence research
division tells Knesset committee Damascus simultaneously boosting
ties with West, radical countries. Adds: Hamas establishing bona
fide country in Gaza. "Syria is moving forward along the path of peace
and openness toward the West while simultaneously strengthening its ties
to the radical axis," the head of the research division of Military
Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz told the Knesset's Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee Monday.
Syria
'boosts troops on border'
BBC News
(October 7, 2008) - Syria has reportedly moved
more troops to its side of the eastern Lebanese border, weeks after
boosting numbers along Lebanon's northern frontier. Reports said the
troops had dug trenches and set up checkpoints in the northern Bekaa
valley region. The Syrian authorities have not commented on the latest
deployment. Damascus said earlier troop movements were aimed at
combating smugglers. On Monday, the US warned Syria against a possible
intervention in Lebanon.
Syria-Russia naval cooperation grows
YNet News
(September
12, 2008) - Russia announced Friday it was renovating a Syrian
port for use by the Russian fleet in what could signal an effort for a
better foothold in the Mediterranean amid the rift with the United
States over Georgia. Syria was Moscow's strongest Mideast ally during
the Cold War. The alliance largely waned after the 1991 fall of the
Soviet Union, though Russia has continued some weapons sales to
Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad has increasingly reached out to
Russia recently, including Seeking weapons and offering broader military
cooperation. Friday's announcement was the first tangible sign of any
new cooperation. The Itar-Tass news agency said Friday that a vessel
from Russia's Black Sea fleet had begun restoring facilities at Syria's
Mediterranean port of Tartus for use by the Russian military. The two
countries' naval chiefs also met in Moscow on Friday and discussed
"further strengthening mutual trust and mutual understanding between the
two states' fleets," A Russian naval official, Igor Dygalo, told
Itar-Tass. The Tartus renovations could signal an intention to have a
long-term Russian naval presence there. In late August, Russia's
ambassador to Damascus, Igor Belyev, said that Russian ships already
patrol the area, but "a new development is that the Russian presence in
the Mediterranean will become permanent." Syrian media made no mention
of the Russian announcement Friday, and Syrian officials could not be
reached for comment. Russian military experts said Tartus would be a
considerable boost for operations in the Mediterranean. "It is much more
advantageous to have such a facility than to return ships patrolling the
Mediterranean to their home bases," Former Black Sea Fleet commander
Adm. Eduard Baltin said, according to the Russian Interfax-AVN service.
The former first deputy commander the Russian Navy, Adm. Igor Kasatonov,
said Tartus "is of great geopolitical significance considering that it
is the only such Russian facility abroad."
Nasrallah: No peace in Middle East as long as Israel exists
Haaretz
(September
11, 2008) - The Hezbollah leader went on to say that his
Lebanon-based guerilla group is stronger than ever and is prepared for
its next confrontation with Israel. "Any Israeli attack on Lebanon,
Iran, Syria or Gaza will be met with a fierce response," Nasrallah said.
He added that Hezbollah has grown logistically and militarily stronger,
claiming that all of Lebanon has united against a common enemy - Israel.
One subject Nasrallah did not broach in the interview is the
assassination last February of the group's second-in-command, Imad
Mughniyeh. Nasrallah did not discuss how or when his group would avenge
the killing. Recent Israeli intelligence reports, however, have
suggested that Hezbollah is planning to abduct Israelis abroad as
revenge for Mughniyeh's assassination.
Syria warns of 'catastrophic' effect of any Israeli strike on Iran
Breitbart.com
(September
2, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned Tuesday that
an attack by Israel on Iran would have catastrophic consequences for the
entire world. "We think that Israel could try to launch attacks against
Iran, even against Lebanon or Syria," he said in an interview with
France 3 television. "Any attack by Israel or by anyone else will have
catastrophic results not only on the region but on the whole world," he
said. In recent months several Israeli politicians have talked of the
possibility of a preemptive military strike against Iranian nuclear
facilities to avoid any possibility of Tehran acquiring an atomic
weapon. Iran has responded by threatening retaliatory strikes with its
Shahab-3 missiles which have a nominal range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250
miles) -- enough to reach Israel.
Israeli-Syrian peace talks postponed
The Jerusalem Post
(September
1, 2008) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy is scheduled to visit
Damascus on Wednesday, a trip Israel had an indirect role in making
possible because of its indirect talks with Syria, at a time when -
ironically - the Israel-Syria track seems frozen. Turkish sources said
Monday that there was no new date scheduled for the fifth round of
indirect talks in Turkey between Syrian and Israeli negotiating teams, a
round that was originally scheduled for last week, then postponed until
this week, and now tentatively set for next week. Turkish sources told
The Jerusalem Post last week that it was likely that the talks would be
postponed until after Sarkozy's two-day trip to Damascus. The Syrians
have expressed interest in US and French co-sponsorship of the talks,
something which Sarkozy would like to see. In a speech to French
ambassadors last week, Sarkozy said it was because Syria knew that
France had excellent relations with Israel and the US that "Damascus
wanted France to shoulder this unprecedented responsibility in due
time." He said this would be discussed during his visit. The US,
meanwhile, has shown no interest in involvement. Sarkozy's visit will be
the first by a French leader to Damascus since former president Jacques
Chirac cut ties with Syria following the assassination in February 2005
of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, a close friend of
Chirac. Diplomatic officials have said that Israel's decision to hold
indirect talks with Syria gave a certain degree of "diplomatic cover"
for Sarkozy to make overtures to Assad, with the argument being that if
it was okay for Jerusalem to talk with the Syrians, then it was also
okay for France. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also
scheduled to visit Damascus this week, expected to visit there on
Thursday, the day that Sarkozy leaves. This has led to speculation that
Erdogan wants to ensure that Turkey maintains its central role in the
Israel-Syria talks. Turkish sources, however, said that the hastily
scheduled Erdogan visit was likely connected more to the
Russian-Georgian crisis, than to the Israeli-Syrian track. Turkey's
decision to allow US warships through the Bosporus Straits to the Black
Sea was slammed by Russia, and Moscow's displeasure was translated into
long delays for Turkish exporters at the Russian border. Turkey hit back
Monday, subjecting Russian imports into Turkey to additional searches.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to arrive in
Istanbul on Tuesday for a meeting that will focus on the rising
tensions, and Erdogan's visit to Damascus - which is supporting Russia
in its conflict with Georgia - is expected to focus on that issue.
more...
U.N. Confirms: Hizbullah Importing Weapons From Syria
Israel National News
(August
30, 2008) - A United Nations task force assigned to report on
weapons smuggling in Lebanon said Monday that Hizbullah has been
bringing arms across the Syrian-Lebanese border. This confirms Israeli
allegations that the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group has been
steadily rearming with Syrian assistance and Lebanese collusion. Last
month, Defense Minister Ehud Barak told U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney
that "the number of missiles in the hands of Hizbullah has doubled, if
not tripled, and that the range of the missiles has been extended. And
this has been accomplished with the close assistance of the Syrians." In
March, an anonymous source told the Associated Press that Hizbullah held
new Iranian rockets capable of striking as far south as Dimona, Israel's
nuclear facility in the Negev. According to the task force report,
submitted to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday, neither
Lebanese nor Syrian officials have done anything to end weapons
transfers to Hizbullah. The task force, which has seen no improvement in
the situation since it started its work in 2007, noted that weapons flow
easily across the Syrian-Lebanese frontier due to lax or non-existent
inspections. Even the air and sea ports into Lebanon, the report says,
have been used for weapons smuggling. Earlier this month, Lebanon's
cabinet voted to allow Hizbullah to maintain its weapons arsenal. The
government decision specifically approves Hizbullah activities aimed at
Israel. In Violation of U.N. Resolutions Weapons transfers to the
Hizbullah such as those cited in the task force report are in violation
of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon
War two years ago. However, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
(UNIFIL) patrols in southern Lebanon, far from the weapons transfer
routes. Furthermore, UNIFIL has stated outright that it would not
enforce Res. 1701 conditions calling for the disarming of Hizbullah. In
March 2008, Hizbullah terrorists threatened and chased off UNIFIL forces
after the armed international soldiers found a truck carrying illicit
arms and ammunition. The incident was mentioned in a semi-yearly report
submitted to the U.N. Security Council by Ban Ki-moon. In an earlier
report to the U.N. Security Council, in February 2008, Ki-moon noted,
"Hizbullah, by admission of its leaders on several occasions, has
replenished its military capacity since the 2006 war with Israel. I
therefore remain concerned that this border remains vulnerable to such
[weapons transfers], which would represent serious violations of the
resolution and constitute a significant threat to the stability and
security of Lebanon."
Will Turkey Abandon NATO? Wall
Street Journal
(August
29, 2008) - Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO
ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist
Georgia? Or will it choose Russia? A Turkish refusal would seriously
impair American efforts to support the beleaguered Caucasus republic.
Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to
make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the
North. Yet that is precisely the decision before Ankara. If Turkey does
not allow the ships through, it will essentially be taking Russia's
side. Whether in government or in the military, Turkish officials have
for several years been expressing concern about U.S. intentions to
"enter" the Black Sea. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Black Sea
remained peaceful due to the fact that Turkey and Russia had clearly
defined spheres of influence. But littoral countries Romania and
Bulgaria have since joined NATO, and Ukraine and Georgia have drawn
closer to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Ankara has expressed nervousness
about a potential Russian reaction. The Turkish mantra goes something
like this: "the U.S. wants to expand NATO into the Black Sea -- and as
in Iraq, this will create a mess in our neighborhood, leaving us to deal
with the consequences once America eventually pulls out. After all, if
Russia is agitated, it won't be the Americans that will have to deal
with them." Nonetheless, Ankara sided with fellow NATO members in
telling Georgia and Ukraine that they would be invited to join the
alliance -- albeit without any time frame. But now that Russia has waged
war in part over this decision, the Turks will have to pick sides.
Deputy chief of the Russian general staff Anatoly Nogoivtsyn already
warned Turkey that Russia will hold Turkey responsible if the U.S. ships
do not leave the Black Sea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel
to Ankara on Monday to make clear that Russia means it. Russia is
Turkey's largest trading partner, mostly because of Turkey's dependence
on Russian gas. More important, the two countries share what some call
the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former
provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to
recreate old agreements on spheres of influence. When Mr. Putin gave a
speech in Munich last year challenging the U.S.-led world order, Turks
cheered. The Turkish military even posted it on its Web site. President
Abdullah Gül recently suggested that "a new world order should emerge."
Turkey joined Russia at the height of its war on Georgia in suggesting a
five-party "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." In other
words, they want to keep the U.S. and the EU at arm's length. Both
Russia and Turkey consider Georgia's American-educated president,
Mikheil Saakashvili, to be crazy enough to unleash the next world war.
In that view Turkey is not so far from the positions of France or
Germany -- but even these two countries did not suggest that the
Georgians sign up to a new regional arrangement co-chaired by Russia
while the Kremlin's air force was bombing Georgian cities. Two other
neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- are watching the Turkish-Russian
partnership with concern. Azeris remember how the Turks -- their ethnic
and religious brethren -- left them to be annexed by the Soviets in the
1920s. Armenians already fear their giant neighbor, who they consider to
have committed genocide against them. Neither wants to have to rely on
Iran (once again) as a counterbalance to Russia. Oh, and of course, Iran
had its own sphere-of-influence arrangements with the Soviets as well.
Though Turkey and Iran are historic competitors, Turkey has broken
with NATO countries recently by hosting President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on
a working visit. As the rest of NATO was preoccupied with the Russian
aggression in Georgia, Turkey legitimized the Iranian leader amidst
chants in Istanbul of "death to Israel, death to America." A few days
later, Turkey played host to Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, who is accused of
genocide by the rest of NATO -- but not by Russia or Iran, or by the
Muslim-majority countries who usually claim to care so much about Muslim
lives. Where is Turkey headed? Turkish officials say they are
using their trust-based relations with various sides to act as a
mediator between various parties in the region: the U.S. and Iran;
Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan, etc. It may be so. But as
more American ships steam toward the Black Sea, a time for choosing has
arrived.
Russian Navy planning greater presence in Syria
Boston.com
(August
28, 2008) - The Russian Navy will make more use of Syrian ports
as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian
diplomat said yesterday. The announcement comes as tensions rise between
Moscow and the West over Russia's role in Georgia. President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria backed Russia's recent offensive on Georgia in support
of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week. "Our navy
presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be
visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently," Igor Belyaev,
the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.
"The visits are continuing," he added. Russia relies on Syria's Tartous
port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties
between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism,
when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.
Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including
the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this
month. Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military
agreements with Syria were reached during Assad's meeting with President
Dmitry Medvedev of Russia today. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as
this does not disturb the "regional balance of power." Lavrov was
referring to the position of Israel, which has a superior military and
is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Syria, which is
technically at war with the Jewish state, has embarked on a drive to
upgrade its military in recent years.
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance
with Russia Times Online
(August 21, 2008) - Syria raised the
prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking
fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he
arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are
ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its
security.” The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia
really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself
closed in a circle.” Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the
deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also
interested in buying Russian weapons. In return Moscow is expected to
propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of
Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the
Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies
during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised
the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western
alliance with former Soviet bloc allies. Many in Israel fear that the
Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers
to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And
with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia
appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria. Already, Israeli
observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies
to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater
energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn
allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use
Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed
Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the
Middle East and increase arms sales. Syria and Israel recently confirmed
they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades
of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international
isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A
closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out
of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could
encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by
Israel in 1967, by force. The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech
with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader,
over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the
Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal
Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with
Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards. “Gal
Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost
because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts
and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed. “What
happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking
to entangle in dangerous adventures.”
Russia sends aircraft carrier to Syria
Barents Observer
(August 20, 2008) - The Russian aircraft
carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the
Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after
Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the
area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s
only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission
will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines,
Newsru.com reports. President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week
expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia.
He also expressed interest in the establishment of Russian missile air
defence facilities on his land. The “Admiral Kuznetsov” also last year
headed a navy mission to the Mediterranean. Then, on the way from the
Kola Peninsula and south, it stopped in the North Sea where it conducted
a navy training exercise in the immediate vicinity of Norwegian offshore
installations.
Monitor: UN peacekeepers in Lebanon co-opted by Hizbullah
World Tribune
(August 20, 2008) - A consultant to the
United Nations said its peace-keeping force in Lebanon has been
effectively paralyzed. An independent monitoring group, registered as a
consultant to the UN, said UNIFIL could not act without permission of
Hizbullah and the Lebanese government it now controls. "They [UNIFIL]
mustn't accept Hizbullah blackmailing," Toni Nissi, general coordinator
of the Lebanese Committee for UN Security Council Resolution 1559 said.
[On Aug. 19, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel would lift
any limitations on military operations should Lebanon turn into what he
termed a Hizbullah state. Olmert said Israel had restrained itself
during the 2006 war with Hizbullah to avoid damage to Lebanon.] In a
briefing on Aug. 16, Nissi said UNIFIL has become a hostage of
Hizbullah. He said the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad
Siniora has refused to grant permission to UN peace-keepers to halt
Hizbullah weapons smuggling or deployment south of the Litani River, a
key element of Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the
Israeli-Hizbullah war in 2006. "1701 also calls for the implementation
of [Security Council resolution] 1559, especially the disarmament of the
militias, and calls for sealing the border between Lebanon and Syria and
forbidding the entering of arms and weapons via the border, especially
to Hizbullah," Nissi said. "So Hizbullah is violating 1701 big time, and
not only by hiding its weapons in warehouses in the south. Also, we
haven't seen any weapons coming out of the south after the war of 2006.
So did Hizbullah throw its weapons used in the 2006 war into the sea?"
The monitoring group, with representatives in Lebanon and other
countries, disputed an assertion by UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Claudio
Graziano that Hizbullah was honoring resolution 1701. Graziano also said
UNIFIL maintained excellent relations with the militia. "Is the UNIFIL
mandate to coordinate with Hizbullah or to kick Hizbullah out south of
the Litani?" Nissi responded. Former UNIFIL adviser Timor Goksel said
the 13,500 international peace-keeping force has sought to avoid
friction with Hizbullah. Goksel told a briefing in Beirut that Hizbullah
has established a major presence in southern Lebanon. "I know they are
careful not to challenge UNIFIL and there is practically no visible
Hizbullah fighter to be seen," Goksel said. "As far as UNIFIL is
concerned, this is compliance."
Israeli missile defense system detects Syrian tests
World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Israeli officials said
the Syrian military conducted tests of both ballistic missiles and
tactical rockets in the spring and summer of 2008. "It was the kind of
test that Iran conducted earlier this year and meant to show that Syria
could fire missiles simultaneously from a range of batteries in the
southern and central parts of the country," an official said. The Syrian
tests were detected by Israel's Arrow-2 missile defense system. The
Arrow's Green Pine early-warning radar was said to have a range of more
than 800 kilometers, which covers most of Syria, Middle East Newsline
reported. Officials said the Syrian tests included that of the Scud D
ballistic missile, with a range of 700 kilometers and which can contain
a chemical warhead. They said North Korea has helped Syria develop a
two-stage Scud D meant to frustrate Israel's missile defense system.
They said the launches appeared to test Syria's command and control
network required to sustain a missile attack on Israel. Syria was also
said to have fired the Soviet-origin SS-21 rocket during the exercise.
The single-stage SS-21 has a range of more than 70 kilometers and was
said to be capable of striking Israeli strategic facilities. Officials
said Syria has about 1,000 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles,
including the Scud B and Scud C. They said Iran and North Korea have
been helping Syria integrate a range of missile and rocket batteries
into a nationwide network. Israel responded to the Syrian missile
launches with a missile defense exercise in August. Officials
acknowledged that neither Israel's Arrow-2 nor the U.S.-origin Patriot
systems could intercept most of Syria's missiles and rockets. Israel's
Channel 2 television disclosed the Syrian missile and rocket exercise on
Aug. 18, the eve of a visit by President Bashar Assad to Russia. Assad
was expected to discuss with his Russian hosts the prospect of
purchasing the Iskander-E rocket, with a range of 280 kilometers.
Report warns of global fallout from invasion of Georgia, faults U.S.
intelligence World Tribune
(August 19, 2008) - Russia's invasion of
Georgia demonstrated Moscow's growing power and is making waves in the
Middle East, a report by a leading U.S. analyst said. The report by the
Institute for Contemporary Affairs asserted that Iran would be
emboldened by Moscow's successful military campaign. "The long-term
outcomes of the current Russian-Georgian war will be felt far and wide,
from Afghanistan to Iran, and from the Caspian to the Mediterranean,"
the report, titled "The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the
Middle East," said. "The war is a mid-sized earthquake which indicates
that the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and nations in
the Middle East, including Israel, need to take notice." Authored by
Ariel Cohen, the report said Russia's strategic goals included
increasing control of energy pipelines to Turkey. Cohen also warned
Israel not to provoke Moscow or rely on U.S. support against Iran,
Middle East Newsline reported. "U.S. expressions of support of
the kind provided to Georgia — short of an explicit mutual defense pact
— may or may not result in military assistance if/when Israel is under
attack, especially when the attacker has an effective deterrent, such as
nuclear arms deliverable against U.S. targets," the report said. "In
the future, such an attacker could be Iran or an Arab country armed with
atomic weapons. Israel can and should rely on its own deterrent — a
massive survivable second-strike capability." The report criticized
the U.S. intelligence community, which failed to detect Russian
efforts to annex Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Cohen, who
warned that Ukraine was Moscow's next target, said the Bush
administration did not prepare the Georgian military for a Russian
attack. "This is something to remember when looking at recent American
intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the
unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against
Hamas," Cohen said. Cohen said a pro-Russian regime in Georgia would
result in Moscow's full control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
and the Baku-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, both of which reach Turkey.
Israel has been receiving some of its oil from Ceyhan and has a "stake
in the smooth flow of oil from the Caspian." The report said Russia
financed and armed the Russian ethnic community in Georgia to foment
unrest. Cohen compared this to Iran's use of proxies to attack Israel
from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. "This use of small, ethnically-based
proxies is similar to Iran's use of Hizbullah and Hamas to continuously
attack Israel," the report said. "Tbilisi tried for years to deal
with these militias by offering a negotiated solution, including full
autonomy within Georgia." Cohen, a senior researcher at the
Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said Russia plans to extend its
influence throughout the Middle East. He cited Russian Navy bases in the
Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartous and plans to establish a presence in
Libya. "Clearly, with the renewal of East-West tensions as a result of
Russia's moves against Georgia, it will be much more difficult to obtain
Moscow's agreement to enhance sanctions and international pressures on
Iran," the report said. "The struggle to diplomatically halt its
[Iran's] nuclear program will become far more difficult."
Israelis: War With Hezbollah Inevitable
Newsmax
(August 18, 2008) - The Israeli army says
Hezbollah has re-armed with 40,000 rockets — triple the number it had at
the start of the Lebanon War two years ago. Therefore, many Israelis
believe another war with Hezbollah is inevitable. "The war set the stage
for a more comprehensive Middle East conflict," said Israeli analyst
Michael Oren. "It set into motion a dynamic in the Arab world, where
much of the Arab street believes that Hezbollah won that war, and there
is tremendous expectation on Hezbollah to continue the struggle."
Hezbollah fired 4,000 rockets into Israel during the 34-day conflict.
But a massive Israeli air and ground assault failed to deal a knockout
blow to 5,000 Hezbollah guerrillas in South Lebanon, prompting an
official Israeli inquiry to describe the government's and army's
handling of the war as a failure. Oren says there were failures, but
also achievements. "Israel wreaked tremendous havoc in Lebanon in 2006,"
Oren said. "We destroyed all of Hezbollah's infrastructure, much of its
civilian headquarters, we killed about a quarter of their fighters, that
is a prohibitive number of casualties for any modern fighting force, and
yet perception is everything in the Middle East and the perception was,
in the Arab world at least, that Israel was bested in that conflict."
Under the U.N. ceasefire resolution that ended the war, about 13,000
international peacekeepers have deployed in South Lebanon. But Israel
charges that they have failed to fulfill their mandate of preventing
weapons smuggling to Hezbollah from Syria and Iran. With a bristling new
arsenal of rockets, Oren believes a Hezbollah attack on Israel is just a
matter of time. "Israel would then have to reply into Lebanon, possibly
drawing in the Syrians and ultimately the Iranians," Oren said. And with
the possible involvement of regional superpowers, the next war could be
much worse than the last one.
Lebanon, Syria open diplomatic relations
The Jordanian Times
(August 15, 2008) - Syrian President Bashar
Assad and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman agreed on Wednesday to
establish diplomatic relations between their countries at ambassadorial
level, a Syrian official said. Damascus has been under pressure from the
United States and other governments including France to treat its
smaller neighbour more as a sovereign state by taking steps including
opening a Beirut embassy and demarcating borders with Lebanon. "The two
presidents... have instructed their foreign ministers to take the
necessary steps in this regard, starting from today," Buthaina Shaaban,
an adviser to President Assad said. Syria had dominated Lebanon until
the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri triggered
pressure for it to end a 29-year military presence in the country.
Sleiman, who had been army chief before his election, was received at a
hilltop palace overlooking Damascus. He was appointed head of Lebanon's
military when Syria still controlled the country and describes his ties
with Damascus as excellent. The two countries announced last month in
Paris that they intended to open diplomatic relations for the first time
since they gained independence in 1943. Wednesday's agreement formally
set those ties on the highest level. It was Sleiman's first visit to
Syria since his election in May as part of a Qatari-mediated deal that
defused a bitter political conflict between an anti-Syrian majority
coalition and an alliance of groups backed by Damascus. Syrian Foreign
Minister Walid Mouallem told Lebanon's As-Safir newspaper that Sleiman's
visit was "a starting point and a true foundation for future relations".
Syria's opponents in Lebanon, including Saudi-backed politician Saad
Hariri, have accused Damascus of assassinating Rafiq Hariri and other
anti-Syrian figures and fomenting instability since its withdrawal.
Syria denies the allegations. more...
'Syria and Hizbullah gaining strength'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 12, 2008) - Defense Minister Ehud
Barak said on Tuesday that "it is not a coincidence that the IDF is
holding intensive drills in the Golan Heights," adding that UNSC
Resolution 1701 was not accomplishing what it set out to do. "Hizbullah
has gained significant strength in the last couple of years," said Barak
during an IDF Armored Corps drill in the North. "We are closely
following a possible violation [of the resolution] caused by the
transfer of advanced weapons systems from Syria to Hizbullah. The
necessary preparations have been made, and regarding all the rest - I
always prefer not to talk, rather to take action when the time comes."
Barak expressed optimism with regards to the IDF's capabilities. "The
army is regaining its strength, and coming back to the right morals,
carrying out the right exercises and it is our obligation as the
government to ensure that the proper means are available to carry out
such drills in a correct and intensive manner." Referring to a proposed
budget cut to the Defense Ministry, Barak said: "We live in a country
where security and defense consist not just of tanks and planes, but
also of fostering excellence and caring for the population through
education and social welfare." Nonetheless, Barak emphasized that
"security and defense take precedence over quality of life and in a
country such as ours, we do not have the luxury of cutting the defense
budget." The defense minister also addressed the Gaza ceasefire and the
strengthening of the group. "So far, the ceasefire has proved
promising," he said. "There have been ten instances where rockets were
launched in the past 6 weeks, compared to the hundreds of attacks that
occurred in the past. Every week that passes with the ceasefire in place
enables us to gain strength and to maximize the possibility or the
probability of bringing about the right conditions for the release of
[captured IDF soldier] Gilad Schalit. Barak added that "in the meantime,
the government must care for the social and economic infrastructure as
well as the preparation of the home front in the Gaza periphery and the
surrounding areas. more...
Exclusive: Hizbollah 'stronger than before' and ready to strike Israel
Telegraph UK
(August 2, 2008) - Hezbollah has
significantly built up its military arsenal on the Israeli border and is
ready to respond with force to any provocation, its senior commander has
told the Telegraph. The political and military group's senior commander
in southern Lebanon said in a rare interview that Hezbollah was far
stronger now than when it fought the Israeli army in a conflict in 2006.
Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, who leads Hezbollah's forces on Lebanon's border
with Israel - the crucial battlefront of any future war, was speaking in
the port city of Tyre. "The resistance is now stronger than before and
this keeps the option of war awake. If we were weak, Israel would not
hesitate to start another war," he said. "We are stronger than before
and when Hezbollah is strong, our strength stops Israel from starting a
new war... We don't seek war, but we must be ready." Hezbollah, whose
missiles killed 43 Israeli civilians during the war of 2006, is
considered a terrorist organisation by the US and Britain. Other sources
say Hezbollah has trebled its arsenal in the last two years – from
10,000 missiles to about 30,000. These new weapons have longer ranges
and heavier warheads. They include the Zelzal missile, which could
strike as far south as Tel Aviv, and the C802 anti-shipping missile,
capable of sinking Israeli warships. Any American strike on Iran, for
example, could be the trigger for a Hezbollah attack on Israel. Hassan
Nasrallah, Hezbollah's overall leader, started the 2006 conflict with
the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers whose corpses were recently
returned to Israel. Mr Kaouk did not deny that Hezbollah was reliant on
Iran for military hardware and support. "We are proud of our friendship
with Iran and with Syria and every country which helps us to gain our
rights," he said. His remarks will be examined closely in Washington as
Iran presses ahead with its nuclear programme. Iran is currently
weighing its response to the West’s latest offer of incentives to
suspend the enrichment of uranium but has signaled that for now it is
not about to change its stance. Asked where Hezbollah's weapons came
from, Mr Kaouk said: "All parties in Lebanon are getting weapons. No one
asks from where." Iran is Hezbollah's supplier and paymaster. Tehran's
regime and Hezbollah are fellow Shias and their alliance is a crucial
power factor in the Middle East. Iran delivers the missiles to southern
Lebanon through Syria. Meanwhile, Hezbollah fighters travel to Iran for
military training. If the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities,
Hezbollah could retaliate by firing its missiles into Israel. Hence Iran
possesses a vital interest in building this arsenal. Asked how Hezbollah
would respond to an attack on Iran, Mr Kaouk replied: "I doubt that
Israel will attack Iran because they know the consequences." Mr Kaouk
said the 2006 war, which claimed 1,100 Lebanese lives, had been a
success. "Israel didn't achieve any of its goals. The known goal of
Israel is 'death to Hezbollah'. Hezbollah is still here."
'Hizbullah received advanced launchers'
The Jerusalem Post
(August 10, 2008) - The senior aide to
Syrian President Bashar Assad who was assassinated last weekend had been
in charge of supplying Hizbullah with advanced anti-aircraft weaponry,
the Sunday Times reported. According to the report, Brig.-Gen. Muhammad
Suleiman had provided the guerrilla group with advanced Syrian SA-8
anti-aircraft missiles, Middle Eastern sources told the paper. Such
missiles could potentially challenge the IAF reconnaissance flights
which are currently conducted unhindered over Lebanon. Last week,
Lebanon's new Cabinet unanimously approved a draft policy statement
which could secure Hizbullah's existence as an armed organization and
guarantee its right to "liberate or recover occupied lands." "The
Cabinet unanimously approved the draft," Information Minister Tarek
Mitri told reporters after the five-hour meeting at the presidential
palace in a Beirut suburb last Monday. Government sources in Jerusalem
said the decision would make the government in Beirut an accomplice to
any Hizbullah aggression and give Israel the right to hold it
responsible. During the Second Lebanon War, Israel came under
international pressure not to harm Lebanon's infrastructure because it
was Hizbullah, not the Lebanese government, that killed several IDF
soldiers and kidnapped reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in the
July 2006 cross border raid which sparked the conflict.
Syria turned down IAEA inspection request, diplomats say
Newsday
(August 9, 2008) - Syria has blocked a new
visit by International Atomic Energy Agency experts seeking to follow up
on intelligence that Damascus built a secret nuclear program built with
the help of North Korea, diplomats told The Associated Press on
Saturday. The diplomats also said Washington was circulating a note
among members of the IAEA board opposing a Syrian push for a seat on the
35-nation board. The board normally works by consensus and a seat held
by Damascus could thus hamper any investigation into its alleged nuclear
activities. Syria fears a massive atomic agency investigation similar to
the probe Iran has been subjected to more than five years. "Syria's
election to the board while under investigation for secretly ...
building an undeclared nuclear reactor not suited for peaceful purposes
would make a mockery" of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, said the
note, as read to the AP. Syria rejected the IAEA request for a visit
late last month, the diplomats said. The visit would have been a follow
up to an initial trip by IAEA inspectors in June. "The Syrians said that
a visit at this time was inopportune," said a senior diplomat, who, like
two others agreeing to discuss the issue, demanded anonymity because
their information was confidential. That appeared to leave open the
possibility of a later visit. But one of the other diplomats said
members of the Syrian mission to the IAEA were spreading the word among
other missions that further trips beyond the one in June were unlikely.
If so, that could cripple international efforts to probe U.S.
allegations that a site in a remote part of the Syrian desert, which
Israel destroyed last year, was a near-finished plutonium-producing
reactor built with North Korean help, and that Damascus continues to
hide linked facilities. IAEA experts came back June 25 from a four-day
visit, carrying environmental samples from the Al Kibar site hit by
Israel in September. Those are now being evaluated. But the results
might fall short of providing a conclusive results. A traditional method
at suspected nuclear sites — taking swipes in the search for radioactive
traces — was unlikely to have been of use at Al Kibar. That's because
none had been introduced into the alleged reactor before it was struck
by Israel, according to intelligence given to the agency by the U.S.,
Israel and a third country the diplomats declined to identify.
more...
IDF MI chief: Hamas, Hizbullah May be Planning Imminent Attack
The Jerusalem Post (July
20, 2008) - Head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin
warned on Sunday of a possible terror attack by Hamas or Hizbullah in
the near future along the Gaza Strip and Lebanon borders, respectively.
Speaking at the weekly cabinet meeting, Yadlin said Hizbullah still had
many outstanding issues with Israel which could be used to justify such
an attack, such as the Shaba Farms, the village of Ghajar, IAF flights
over Lebanon and Imad Mughniyeh's assassination in February - for which
the group has blamed Israel. Of Gaza, Yadlin said some organizations
which have not signed on to the cease-fire are planning a major attack.
However, Yadlin said Hamas was succeeding in enforcing the cease-fire on
the Palestinian side but assessed that the fact that border crossings
were not open "according to Hamas's expectations, constitutes a
potential for eroding the cease-fire." While weapons smuggling
continued, Egyptian activity in Sinai "diminishes the amount of arms
smuggling, but quality weaponry still finds its way into the Gaza
Strip." Yadlin also said that Israel's enemies were continuing to arm
themselves. But he added those enemies were worried of the possibility
of a "hot summer" and did not intend to initiate a war with Israel
during US President George W. Bush's remaining time in office, or before
they had armed themselves sufficiently.
Hizbullah moves into 'every town'
The Jerusalem Post (July 17, 2008)
- Hizbullah is bolstering its presence in south Lebanon villages with
non-Shi'ite majorities by buying land and using it to build military
positions and store missiles and launchers, The Jerusalem Post has
learned. The decision to build infrastructure in non-Shi'ite villages -
where Hizbullah has less support - is part of the group's post-war
strategy under which it has mostly abandoned the "nature reserves,"
forested areas in southern Lebanon where it kept most of its Katyusha
rocket launchers before the Second Lebanon War. Behind the change is the
mandate given to UNIFIL by the United Nations after the war in 2006.
According to the mandate, the peacekeeping force can patrol freely
throughout southern Lebanon but cannot enter villages or cities without
being accompanied by soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces, which
regularly tips off Hizbullah ahead of the raids. News of the change in
Hizbullah strategy came as Israel is trying to persuade the UN to
strengthen UNIFIL's mandate to give it the right to patrol the villages
freely. "Hizbullah is moving into every town that it can," a senior
defense official told the Post. "This is in order to evade UNIFIL
detection." On Thursday, Lebanese complained they were receiving
recorded phone messages from Israel promising "harsh retaliation" for
any future Hizbullah attack. The automated messages also warn against
allowing Hizbullah to form "a state within a state" in the country. The
phone messages end with the words: "The State of Israel." There was no
immediate confirmation from Israel, though similar reports surfaced of
Israeli phone campaigns during the 2006 war trying to persuade Lebanese
not to support Hizbullah. Lebanon's official National News Agency said
residents in the country's south and east, as well as in Beirut
reporting receiving the calls. It said Telecommunications Minister
Jibran Bassil contacted the United Nations to complain, calling it a
"flagrant aggression against Lebanese sovereignty." Also Thursday,
defense officials warned that with the prisoner swap completed,
Hizbullah would no longer need to restrain itself and might decide to
avenge the assassination of the group's operations chief, Imad Mughniyeh,
who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus last February. As a result, the
IDF has slightly increased its level of alert along the border, based on
the assessment that even if a retaliatory attack took place abroad the
violence would spread to the Israeli-Lebanese border.
We only get one strike
The Jerusalem Post (July 16, 2008) -
An Israeli attack on Iran seems inevitable. If it succeeds, it will
return to Israel its deterrent power and send a clear message to the
saber-rattling jihadists that they were too early in beginning the
countdown for the disappearance of the Jewish state. If it fails, or
fails to achieve the majority of its objectives, it could amount to an
act of national suicide. Fanatical Muslims on every side will be
encouraged by the failure and outcome of an Iranian retaliation which
would cause heavy damage to the whole center of our country. Iran would
unquestionably be joined by its proxies on our borders, Hizbullah and
Syria on the north and Hamas on the south, the PLO jihad brigades under
various names, and the Arabs of Israel. The latter have already shown
their ability to block major traffic arteries and demonstrated that
their loyalties rest with their Arab brethren, not with the Jewish
state. The repeated declarations of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that
the aim of Iran is to wipe Israel off the world map should not be taken
as the empty, fiery words of a fanatical Muslim dictator, but as a plan
of action. True, Iran does not need a pretext, but an Israeli attack on
any nuclear installation in Iran, or just an invasion of Iranian air
space could be used as an excellent reason for mounting an all-out
missile attack. Since the late ninth century, the Shi'ites have been
expecting the emergence of the hidden imam-mahdi, armed with divine
power and followed by thousands of martyrdom-seeking warriors. He is
expected to conquer the world and establish Shi'ism as its supreme
religion and system of rule. His appearance would involve terrible war
and unusual bloodshed. Ahmadinejad, as mayor of Teheran, built a
spectacular boulevard through which the mahdi would enter into the
capital. There is no question that Ahmadinejad believes he has been
chosen to be the herald of the mahdi. Shi'ite Islam differs from Sunni
Islam regarding the identity of the mahdi. The Sunni mahdi is
essentially an anonymous figure; the Shi'ite mahdi is a divinely
inspired person with a real identity. However both Shi'ites and Sunnis
share one particular detail about "the coming of the hour" and the
dawning of messianic times: The Jews must all suffer a violent death, to
the last one. Both Shi'ites and Sunnis quote the famous hadith
attributed to the Prophet Muhammad: The last hour will not come unless
the Muslims fight against the Jews, and the Muslims would kill them
until the Jews hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and the stone or
the tree would say: "Muslim! Servant of Allah! Here is a Jew behind me;
come and kill him!" Not one Friday passes without this hadith being
quoted in sermons from one side of the Islamic world to the other.
more...
Ahmadinejad: We'll sever enemies' hands
The Jerusalem Post
(July 13,
2008) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened on Sunday
to "cut off the hands" of any would-be attackers of the Islamic
Republic. "Before the enemies touch the trigger, the armed forces will
cut off their hands," the state-run IRNA news agency quoted the leader
as saying. Ahmadinejad said that missile tests conducted last week
exhibited "only a small part" of Iran's defense capabilities, and that,
if necessary, further capabilities would be revealed. Ahmadinejad's
statement comes amid a report that US President George W. Bush has given
Israel the "amber light" to carry out an attack on Iran if diplomatic
efforts are unsuccessful in causing the Islamic Republic to back down
and relinquish its nuclear program. According to a senior Pentagon
official quoted by the British Sunday Times on Sunday morning, Bush has
given Israel free rein to attack Iran's nuclear sites if sanctions fail
in spite of opposition from US generals and regardless of the possible
economic and political repercussions of such a strike. "Amber means get
on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us
when you're ready," the official said, adding however, that Israel had
been told that it could not count on the US to lend it military support.
Contradicting recent reports to the contrary, he also said that the IAF
would not be permitted to take off from American military bases in Iraq.
The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the report. Ahmadinejad's
aggressive statements contrasted strikingly with a report on Iranian
state TV Sunday, which quoted him as saying that Iran would welcome the
idea of setting up a US diplomatic office in Teheran. The report quoted
the firebrand Iranian leader as saying he would consider an American
request to set up an interests section in Iran. He said he "welcomes any
move to expand ties." But Ahmadinejad said his government hasn't
received any official request for such an office. Last month, US
officials floated the idea but no formal requests were made. more...
'We'll Take Land By Force if Talks Fail'
The Jerusalem Post
(July 12,
2008) - Should diplomacy fail to return "Israeli-occupied land"
to Lebanon, the Lebanese army (LAF) will take it by force, Lebanese
President Gen. Michel Sueleiman said on Sunday. Suleiman was speaking at
a press conference after meeting Syrian President Bashar Assad on the
sidelines of the Mediterranean conference in Paris. The Lebanese
president stressed, however, that the military option was the last
resort. Assad said Lebanon had an important role to play in the Middle
East peace process and that any progress in future Israel-Lebanon
negotiations would be made in coordination with Syria. Meanwhile, in
what is being interpreted in Israel as a declaration of ownership, the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has built a road and set up a military
position in the Shaba Farms/ Mount Dov area for the first time since
Israel's withdrawal from that part of Lebanon in 2000. Israeli defense
officials confirmed the move, which was first reported in the Lebanese
media, but would not comment on its significance.
Sarkozy: Syria and Lebanon will open embassies
Associated Press
(July 12,
2008) - France's president says Syria and Lebanon will open
embassies in each other's countries. The nations have not had
full-fledged embassies in each other's countries since Lebanon became
independent in 1943 and Syria in 1945. Syrian President Bashar Assad
said last month that establishing diplomatic ties with Lebanon would be
possible if a national unity Cabinet was formed in Beirut. Such a
government, including members of Syria's ally Hezbollah, was formed
Friday after weeks of haggling. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is
hosting a summit among leaders of 43 nations from Europe and the
Mediterranean rim. Lebanon's new president said Saturday he wants to
establish diplomatic ties with Syria and exchange ambassadors, calling
for a major shift in long-hostile relations between the neighbors.
Michel Suleiman spoke before talks in Paris with his Syrian counterpart,
Bashar Assad — and on the eve of a rare summit among leaders of 43
nations from Europe and the Mediterranean rim that France says could
send a "wind of hope" through the region. "We want an exchange of
ambassadors and diplomatic relations with Syria," Suleiman told
reporters at the French presidential palace. He said he was "satisfied"
with relations with Syria and that a visit there is "still on the
agenda." The two countries have not had diplomatic relations since 2005,
when former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed. Syria's
critics accuse Damascus of having a role in the slaying, a charge Syria
denies. Suleiman would not comment on a hoped-for timeframe for new ties
or embassies. The nations have not had full-fledged embassies in each
other's countries since Lebanon became independent in 1943 and Syria in
1945. more...
Hezbollah movement triples number of rockets - report
Russian News & Information Agency
(July 9, 2008) - Israel's state-controlled
radio claimed Wednesday that Islamic Hezbollah has increased its rocket
arsenal threefold since the start of an armed conflict with Israel two
years ago. Kol Israel radio made the claims citing Israel intelligence
sources and said that Hezbollah now has 40,000 rockets capable of
reaching Israel. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told a cabinet meeting
Wednesday that the increase in weapons by Shiite Hezbollah was in
violation of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 34-day war in 2006. The
UN resolution called for the disarming of all militias and the
prevention of gun-running and smuggling operations in Lebanon. Over the
past few days, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has raised the issue
with foreign ministers from France, Germany and Italy. According to Kol
Israel, he indicated that Israel would not tolerate violations of peace
agreements, which could damage "the fragile balance on the Israeli
border."
Hezbollah uprising exposed it as Iran's puppet in Lebanon
Ya Libnan (June
9, 2008)
- Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Shiite mullahs executing Khomeini's will
to export the "Islamic revolution" remain on their self-assigned mission
to slay the "Great Satan," the U.S. They were finding their campaign
stumbling in all the pertinent places throughout the Sunni-dominated
Mideast. This forced the Iranians to concentrate on multi-religious
Lebanon in order to compensate for the major grounds lost lately in
Iraq. The projection of Iranian power comes mainly in the form of
Hezbollah. Hezbollah's most recent pretext to disrupt and dominate the
nation was simple decisions of sovereignty by the Lebanese government on
May7, including extending control over the Hezbollah communications
network. Hezbollah refused. The group launched an armed revolt in
Beirut, conquering districts, trashing government buildings, burning TV
stations, and looting the city at will. But six days of violent
confrontations between the well-armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and
untrained individual Lebanese did not lead to the fall of the government
or plunge the country in complete chaos as it was intended. Lebanese
citizens improvised strategies to defend their neighborhoods. Hezbollah
fighters lacked necessary logistical support in order to remain in the
areas they invaded. So Hezbollah had to hand over the zones back to the
Lebanese army. The Arabs, realizing the gravity of the Iranian assault,
started an initiative culminating in a summit in Qatar. Ultimately, the
factional and governmental representatives left with the Doha Accord.
Pacification returned to the smoldering streets of Beirut. more...
Defense officials: UN Resolution 1701 on the verge of collapse
The Jerusalem Post (July
9, 2008)
- United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, passed to stop the
Second Lebanon War, is on the verge of collapse as Syria continues to
rearm Hizbullah, senior defense officials warned Tuesday night ahead of
a scheduled security cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert will convene the cabinet to discuss the rearmament of Hizbullah
since the Second Lebanon War and to discuss ways to curb the flow of
weapons from Syria to the guerrilla group. During the meeting, the
ministers will be briefed by Military Intelligence on Hizbullah's
rehabilitation and preparation for another round of violence with
Israel. Defense officials said Israel's only course of action at present
was to attempt to place pressure on diplomatic officials from European
countries that contribute to UNIFIL. "Syria is rearming Hizbullah at a
rapid pace and this is proof that 1701 has completely failed," one
official said. The peacekeeping force's mandate will be up for renewal
next month and Israel is looking to see if it will be possible to make
changes that will give the force more freedom to prevent Hizbullah's
rearmament.
Crossfire War - Israel Estimates Iran-Syria to Fire 250-300 Long Range
Missiles News Blaze
(July 3, 2008) - "How Many Missiles will be
Fired from Iran-Syria-Lebanon Against Israel in the Next War?" was the
subject of a lecture given by Major-General (res.) Eitan Ben Eliahu at
the Israel Missile Defense Association (IMDA) (www.imda.org.il) a new
link with Crossfire War. Haaretz reports General Eliahu headed the
Israel Air Force (IAF) from 1996-2000 and in his lecture earlier this
week he estimated Syria-Iran will launch 250-300 long range Shahab-Scud
missiles at Israel in the next war. Eliahu estimated Hezbollah in
Lebanon will be able to launch 5,000 short range missiles, an increase
from the 4,200 they fired in 2006. Hezbollah does possess some longer
range missiles which can hit Tel Aviv and no doubt they will be used as
quickly as possible since the IAF will make destroying the longer range
missiles their top priority whether they are fired from
Lebanon-Syria-Iran. Eliahu expects the full scale fighting to last 20
days. [HAARETZ]
In the course of his discussion General Eliahu mentioned Israel
operates under a security doctrine that does allow for An Initiated War
(preventive strike) as in 1967 which was so successful the war
lasted only six days and Israel was able to take the strategic Golan
Heights, a Syrian obsession ever since and Damascus' main motive for
entering the war this year. He then said if an Initiated War is not
possible then the doctrine provides for a Pre-Emptive Attack to disrupt
the enemy's preparation. The IAF attack on the Syrian nuclear
base last September was an example. Eliahu then mentioned if war
does result then Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must conduct a holding
operation during which they must achieve Aerial Superiority. He probably
realizes if/when Israel does conduct a pre-emptive attack on Iran, for
disruptive purposes, it would mean full scale war, beyond the serious
flare ups of the past two years which did not yet lead to Israel's
offensive into Gaza. Eliahu stated Israel should
expect the next war to require action on one to three fronts and in
order to achieve victory the IDF must crush the enemy on one of the
fronts, which would be either Hezbollah in Lebanon or Syria. Since the
ground area to cover is smaller in Lebanon Israel's offensive there
should not take as long as in the case with Syria. Jerusalem may also
prefer a quick victory against the hated Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah even if
it means using nuclear weapons. Concerning Palestinian units in Gaza
Eliahu recommends a war of containment which would include a ground
offensive. Against Iran he recommended long range attacks should be
continued. more...
Iran and Syria sign missile pact
Gulf In The Media
(June 2, 2008) - Iran's
Revolutionary Guards Corps has created an independent missile command to
be integrated with a Syrian missile program, military sources said. The
DEBKAfile news agency reported Sunday that the joint command was
formalized in a treaty signed by the Syrian Defense Minister Hassan
Turkmani in Tehran last week. Under the agreement, Syria's missile units
would come under the new Iranian missile section and their operations
would be fully coordinated with Tehran. Iranian officers are to be
attached to Syrian units, while Syrian officers are posted to the
Iranian command. Military sources told DEBKAfile that Iran's control of
four hostile missile fronts would virtually neutralize the American and
Israeli anti-missile defense systems in the region.
'Unavoidable' attack on Iran looms, says Israeli minister
Guardian UK (June
6,
2008) - An Israeli minister has said an attack on Iran's
nuclear sites will be "unavoidable" if Tehran refuses to halt its
alleged weapons programme. In the most explicit threat yet by a member
of Ehud Olmert's government, Shaul Mofaz, a deputy prime minister, said
the hardline Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "would disappear
before Israel does". "If Iran continues with its programme for
developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are
ineffective," Mofaz, who is also Israel's transport minister, said in
comments published today by the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper. "Attacking
Iran in order to stop its nuclear plans will be unavoidable."
Iranian-born Mofaz is a former army chief and defence minister. He is a
member of Olmert's security cabinet and leads regular strategic
coordination talks with the US state department. Iran denies trying to
build nuclear weapons and has defied western pressure to abandon uranium
enrichment. The leadership in Tehran has threatened that if attacked the
country will retaliate against Israel - believed to have the Middle
East's only nuclear arsenal - and American targets in the region.
Ahmadinejad has repeatedly called for Israel to be wiped off the map
since becoming president. On Monday, he said Israel was "about to die
and will soon be erased from the geographical scene". Olmert met the US
president, George Bush, on Wednesday to discuss concerns over Iran. The
Israeli prime minister, who is being pressured to resign over a
corruption scandal, has said that Iran's nuclear threat "must be stopped
by all possible means". Israeli planes bombed Syria in September,
destroying what the US administration said was a partly built nuclear
reactor using North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.
UN inspectors announced this week that they would be visiting Syria to
investigate the American claim.
Defense sources: Syria arming Hezbollah, despite Israel talks
Haaretz
(June 4,
2008) - Syria is continuing to supply the Lebanon-based
Hezbollah organization with large amounts of weapons, missiles and
rockets even as it conducts indirect negotiations with Israel, defense
officials in Jerusalem told Army Radio on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Syrian
President Bashar Assad said Monday in a series of interviews that
resumed peace talks with Israel hinge on the current cabinet remaining
in power in Jerusalem. In interviews he gave to newspaper editors in the
United Arab Emirates, Assad said: "The success of the talks depend on
the Israeli side and is tied to the Israeli government's ability and how
stable it is." According to one report, Assad said direct talks would
begin only next year, though Syria is not opposed in principle. "We
explained our vision for peace, and we are waiting for the Israeli
response. However, our previous attempt to negotiate with Israel was not
encouraging, and what we are doing now is to verify that Israel is ready
for peace," he said. Defense Minister Ehud Barak referred to the
indirect talks with Syria while touring the northern border Tuesday.
"With the Syrians, feelers are being put out to check whether there is a
possibility of opening direct negotiations and discussing in that
framework all of the topics about which we will have to make tough
decisions and make concessions, but it cuts both ways. These will be
tough decisions from Assad's perspective and also ours," Barak said.
Referring to Syria's "intimate" cooperation with Hezbollah, including
helping to arm it," Barak said "the supreme responsibility in our view
falls on Hezbollah, on the one hand, and Syria and Iran, on the other."
SYRIA: Israeli hopes for a Tehran-Damascus rift collapse
Los Angeles Times
(May 2008) - Iranian and Syrian officials poured a bucket of ice water this week
on Israeli hopes for a rupture in the long-standing Tehran-Damascus
relationship. Israeli officials had demanded Syria break ties with Iran in
exchange for returning the occupied Golan Heights to Syria. Instead, Syria this
week appeared to strengthen its ties with Iran, signing a
defense cooperation pact in a showy Tehran photo-op on Tuesday. That
same day, Syrian President Bashar Assad
told a visiting delegation of
British
lawmakers that Damascus' relationship with Tehran was not up for
negotiation. In reality, despite a lot of media attention, there was never
really much chance of a peace deal between Syria and Israel or a break in ties
between Damascus and Tehran. At least not anytime soon. Israeli and Syrian
leaders
admitted this month that the two countries were engaged in peace talks
mediated by Turkey. Almost immediately, the Israeli foreign minister said Syria
would have
to
cut ties with Iran, and its allies Hezbollah and Hamas, before Israel
would consider making peace and handing back the Golan Heights. A Western
diplomat in Damascus closely tracking the indirect Syria-Israel talks bluntly
called any hopes of dangling the Golan Heights (a hilly plateau about the size
of Los Angeles County) to drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran "a
non-starter." A more realistic strategy might be to try to persuade Syria to
temper the behavior of Hamas and Hezbollah, which both fight Israel. "The
Syrians won't want to lose Hezbollah, but can moderate Hezbollah," said the
diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Syrians don't have control over
Hamas and Hezbollah, but they have influence. Syria might have veto power." In
any case, few insiders believed a breakthrough between Israel and Syria was
imminent. The diplomat said Assad doesn't anticipate any new deals before
summer 2009, after President Bush is out of office. "Bashar has been clear that
he didn't really want to negotiate. He's preparing everything for the next
American administration. If the next American administration is ready to
guarantee a deal, then they'll be ready." But Israel may also be part of the
problem. A majority of Israelis are
reluctant to give up the Golan Heights, which has become a
463-square-mile resort destination as well as a strategic buffer, even for a
peace deal with Damascus. Over 41 years of occupation, they've grown
to love the Golan
Heights.
Turkey In Between: Syria-Israel & Georgia-Russia
Poli Gazette
(May 27, 2008) - Adding to its much coveted
resume as “Europe’s bridge to the Middle East”, Turkey has now been officially
recognized as the facilitator of talks between Israel and Syria. Whether or not
the Israeli media agrees with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s motivations for
publicizing the existence of talks, Turkey can at least shine in the warm
spotlight of international recognition for a few weeks. While most Turkish
diplomatic activity in the Arab Middle East other than with Iraq follows a
mechanical approach, Turkey’s role as a mediator between Israel and Syria is
uncharacteristically complex. There exists a very clear logic behind Turkey’s
effort to mingle in the affairs of these two countries. Compared to its
relationship with neighbor Iran, Turkey’s rapport with Syria is relatively
underdeveloped. Perhaps the most significant reason for this is the incredible
backwardness of Syria’s Baathist state-controlled economy, which is also
responsible for the incredible backwardness of Syria’s regional foreign policy.
Syria’s problematic approach last affected Turkey in a dramatic way in 1998.
Syria gave refuge to PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, much to the disgrace of Turkish
public opinion that had designated Ocalan as a terrorist. Syria would ultimately
harbor the Kurdish leader in Damascus until the threat of a Turkish invasion
successfully forced his eviction. In comparison, Turkey’s rapport with Israel
has proved quite dynamic. Successive Turkish governments and the Turkish
military have pursued a symbiotic relationship with Israel despite the risk of
alienating Turkey even further in the eyes of the Arab World. Both countries,
similarly focused on linking themselves with the West, have cooperated through
military exchanges and natural resource transfers. In addition, Turkey hopes to
court the sympathy of the Israeli lobby in Washington as a means of
counter-balancing the influence of the Armenian lobby on American foreign
policy. While no observer could claim that Turkey’s efforts will actually make a
significant difference in solving the issues that separate Israel and Syria,
Turkey’s actions will help it acquire some additional credibility with pundits
who influence EU opinion. This alone could be reason for Turkey to exert its
diplomatic energy. The highly involved nature of Turkey’s interest in affairs
south of its border stands in tremendous contrast with its attitudes concerning
the tumultuous political situation to its north-east. Turkey has chosen a
relatively silent course as Georgia struggles to deal with breakaway Abkhazia
and omnipresent Russia. (On Monday, the UN announced that a Russian jet did
indeed shoot down a Georgian unmanned surveillance drone patrolling over
Abkhazia.) Other than its relations with Armenia, which are “very well” defined,
Turkey’s diplomatic intentions in the greater Caucasus region and Central Asia
have been unclear ever since the failure of its Pan-Turkism initiative in the
1990s. While Turkish construction companies and textile producers have been keen
to acquire contracts and conduct foreign direct investment projects, Turkey’s
main interest in the region has been its role as a conduit for Central Asian
energy exports to Europe and beyond. Turkey’s energy interests in Central Asia
have understandably run counter to those of Russia, which are monopolistic by
nature. more…
Iran's Ahmadinejad wants closer Syria defence ties
Reuters
(May 26,
2008) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Monday
for closer defence ties with Syria, the official IRNA news agency
reported, a few days after Israel urged Damascus to distance itself from
Tehran. "So far Iran's and Syria's joint and mutual relations in various
fields have been of utmost usefulness and defence relations must expand
to the extent possible," he told visiting Syrian Defence Minister Hassan
Turkmani. The IRNA report gave no further details on military
cooperation between the two Middle East countries, which the United
States accuses of sponsoring terrorism. Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa
Mohammad Najjar described Syria on Sunday as a strategic ally. Pieter
Wezeman, a researcher on conventional arms transfers at the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), said Syria and Iran had
military relations but their secretive nature made it difficult to say
how substantial they were. He said Iran was believed to supply Syria
mainly with ammunition but there were reports of other kinds of military
cooperation. "It is extremely difficult to find any reliable
information," Wezeman said by telephone from Stockholm. more...
Ahmadinejad sure Syria will press struggle against Israel
AFP
(May 26,
2008) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday that he
remains confident Iran's close ally Syria will keep up the struggle
against Israel despite its announcement of renewed peace negotiations.
"I am sure that the Syrian leadership will manage the situation with
wisdom and will not abandon the front line until the complete removal of
the Zionist threats," Ahmadinejad told visiting Syrian Defence Minister
Hassan Turkmani. "So far the cooperation between Iran and Syria in
different areas has been beneficial for both sides and our defence ties
should be expanded as far as possible," the official IRNA news agency
quoted the president as saying. Turkmani's visit is the first to Iran by
a Syrian official since Syria and Israel announced last Wednesday that
they had resumed indirect peace negotiations through Turkish mediators,
ending an eight-year freeze. Turkmani held talks on Sunday with his
Iranian counterpart Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, during which the Iranian
side underlined the importance of "collective security". Ahmadinejad
stressed that Iran would continue its longstanding policy of supporting
"the oppressed Palestinian people." "Supporting the Palestinian people
means supporting regional security, as the Palestinians are in the front
line of the Zionists' aggression," he said. Iran does not recognise
Israel and has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause since
the 1979 Islamic revolution. Ahmadinejad has drawn international
condemnation by calling for the Jewish state to be wiped from the map.
On Saturday, Syria rejected any preconditions to the new peace
negotiations with Israel involving either breaking its three-decade
alliance with Iran or ending its support for Lebanese and Palestinian
militant groups. Israeli officials have in the past conditioned any
peace deal with Syria on its agreement to end both. Iranian analysts saw
in Turkmani's visit proof that the three-decade-old alliance between
Tehran and Damascus remained intact despite the renewed peace
negotiations. more... The September War WorldNet Daily (May 23, 2008) - According to a number of sources, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is planning to bring his first reactor on line sometime in September 2008, which is just about in line with what the Israeli Mossad had estimated back in 2003 when the full extent of Iran's secret nuclear program became known. The Iranian announcement came on the heels of a surprise announcement by the government of Israel confirming it had entered into third-party peace talks with Syria's Bashar Assad. The surprising confirmation on Wednesday was the first acknowledged contact between the two parties in eight years, which will be mediated by Turkey. Equally surprising was a statement from the United States saying it had no objection to the talks. Previously, the U.S. had rejected any peace overtures toward Syria as long as it was sponsoring Hezbollah and Hamas. In fact, President Bush seemed to have been blindsided by the news. According to transcripts of an interview he granted to the Jerusalem Post, Bush responded to the news by stammering; "I expect an explanation, but I'm – he made a decision that he made – or no decisions have been made, except the idea of trying to get some dialogue moving, which is – and I know him well, and know that he is as concerned about Israeli security as any other person that's ever been the prime minister of Israel. And so I presume the decision is made." Despite the White House's official welcome of the news, privately, officials were furious. The New York Times quoted an "anonymous" (of course) "administration official" who called Israel's unilateral move "a slap in the face." While Damascus and Jerusalem talk peace, Iranian-backed Hezbollah consolidated the gains it made in fighting against government forces in the streets of Beirut and elsewhere. After six days of mediation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, Hezbollah emerged a clear winner in a settlement agreement in which Hezbollah was granted veto rights over the government, affirming its stature as "the preponderant military actor and the super political power in Lebanon," according to political scientist Hilal Khashan of the American University of Beirut. Khashan told the AFP that "it was an excellent deal for the Hezbollah-led opposition and a major defeat for the U.S.-backed government." The deal was brokered by the Qatari government. The Arab League played a major part in securing the deal, with both Syria and Iran declaring their support for Hezbollah's victory. Under the arrangement, Parliament will elect as president the current head of the Lebanese Army, Gen. Michel Suleiman. Gen. Suleiman will then appoint a new government – one in which Hezbollah holds enough seats to veto any decisions it doesn't like – such as disarming Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israeli military sources say that Iran is continuing to ship weapons and ammunition, via Hezbollah, to the Hamas-occupied Gaza Strip, including rockets, missiles and rocket launchers. According to the Mossad, these shipments have been stepped up in recent months, reaching a peak in March-April. Using fishing boats, Iran has successfully smuggled Iranian-made 120 mm mortars with a range of up to six miles. The Mossad says that the smuggling operation is overseen by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard using Syrian ports and Hezbollah operatives. Meanwhile, back in Israel, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is fighting desperately to keep his job while he is under investigation by police on charges of obtaining money by fraud, breach of trust, money laundering and tax offenses, according to Haartez. And fears are rampant within Israeli circles that Olmert may be considering trading the Golan Heights in exchange for a peace deal he can trumpet to deflect attention away from his legal problems.
If one sits down and connects the dots, one ends up with a very
different picture than the one being presented by the mainstream media
suggesting the Syrian-Israeli talks are representative of a major
breakthrough. It is worth remembering that it was the Persians who
invented chess, and Ahmadinejad seems to be controlling all the pieces.
In the first place, Ahmadinejad knows that Israel will attack its
reactor the moment that they take it on line. He's been arming and
training Hamas to serve as its proxy in the event of war, to harass the
IDF on its flanks. To the north in Lebanon, Ahmadinejad has succeeded in
rearming and re-equipping Hezbollah since the Lebanon War in 2006. The
Mossad estimates Hezbollah is stronger now than it was before Israel
invaded. Hezbollah has succeeded, for all intents and purposes, in
taking over the Lebanese government. Hamas controls all of the Gaza
Strip. Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority barely has a handle on the
West Bank – and in any event, would turn on Israel the second the
opportunity presented itself. Syria's insistence on the return of the
Golan Heights as a precondition for peace is a Trojan Horse –
particularly considering the timing. It was only last September that
Israel destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor that was only weeks from being
operational. Syria has built one of the most formidable arsenals of
missiles and rockets in the region, all of them aimed at Israel. From
the Golan Heights, Syria would control much of northern Israel, as it
did prior to losing the Golan to Israel in the Six Days War. Israel is
therefore surrounded with Hezbollah and Syria to the north, Hamas on
both flanks, with al-Qaida sympathizers flooding in through Egypt and
Jordan. Everything is in place for war except the pretext to start
things off. Starting up a nuclear reactor will do nicely.
Syrian military delegation arrives in Moscow
RIA Novosti
(May 19,
2008) - A group of Syrian military officials arrived in
Moscow on Monday to discuss prospects for bilateral military and
technical cooperation, a Russian Air Force spokesman said. During the
five-day visit, the delegation led by Syrian Air Force and Air Defense
Commander Gen. Akhmad Al Ratyb will meet with Russian Defense Ministry
and Air Force officials, visit several military units and defense
industry plants, Col. Alexander Drobyshevsky said. Russia's Kommersant
newspaper earlier wrote that Moscow and Damascus had agreed on
deliveries of the latest Russian MiG-29SMT fighter. Syria also bought 36
Pantsir S1E air-defense systems from Russia, and hopes to receive
Strelets short-range air defense systems, Iskander tactical missile
systems, Yak-130 aircraft, and two Amur-1650 submarines. Israel and the
U.S. are sensitive about Russian-Syrian military and technical
cooperation, fearing not only a reinforcement of Syria's Armed Forces,
but also the possibility that modern weapons could fall into the hands
of Hezbollah fighters and Iran, in violation of the existing
international embargo.
'Iran to give Hamas more arms, funds'
The Jerusalem Post
(May 25, 2008)
- Iran has promised
Hamas new rockets and more funds, an expression of the Islamic
Republic's displeasure with recent news of renewed Israeli-Syrian
peace talks, the London-based newspaper, Asharq Alawsat reported on
Sunday. According to the report, Syria-based Hamas leader Khaled
Mashaal, who held a press conference in Teheran with Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Saturday, expressed his concern over
statements issued simultaneously by Jerusalem, Damascus and Ankara
last Wednesday in which a renewal of talks between Syria and Israel
under Turkish mediation was declared. Mashaal reportedly told his
Iranian hosts that despite commitments he was given by Damascus that
peace with Israel would not come at the expense of Syria's ties with
Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, he was still aware of the fact that Syria
would have to make some concessions. He emphasized that he
understood that Syria could not sign a peace agreement with Israel,
exchange ambassadors, end the state of war and make the Golan
Heights demilitarized and at the same time continue to allow Iran to
use its territory to transfer weapons to Hizbullah, train Hamas and
Islamic Jihad terrorists and help in the financing of those groups.
An Iranian source told the paper that in light of Mashaal's fears,
Iranian regime officials promised the head of Hamas's political
bureau that Iran would continue supporting Hamas financially,
materially and morally, even if Syria would turn its back on the
organization for the sake of an agreement with Israel. According to
the source, the Iranians had even elaborated what that support would
be: Newer, upgraded rockets and an increase in the budget allotted
to Hamas to $150 million in the second half of 2008. A source in the
office of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Mashaal
was promised that Iran would supply every support his organization
might need, be it weapons, finance, or military training. Iran's
defense minister also expressed confidence on Sunday that
negotiations would not hamper the strong alliance between Teheran
and Damascus, the Iranian FARS news agency reported. Labeling Syria
a strategic ally of Iran, Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammed Nejad
called on "Islamic states to strengthen their relations in order to
defend themselves against the dangers which threaten the region."
Iran tells Syria must regain control of Golan
YNet News
(May 24, 2008)
- Syrian Defense
Minister Hassan Turkmani arrived in Tehran on Saturday evening as
part of Damascus' bid to reassure its Iranian ally after resuming
peace negotiations with Israel. General Turkmani is scheduled to
meet with his Iranian counterpart, Mustafa Mohammad-Najjar, and
additional key figures in Tehran. A possible meeting with President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has not yet been confirmed. In a meeting he held
earlier on Saturday with Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal,
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki publically addressed the
renewed talks for the first time. "The Golan belongs to Syria and
must be returned to its control. The Zionist regime must withdraw
from the Golan, and we support Syrian efforts to repossess the
Heights." The Syrian defense minister's visit to Tehran follow
reports of Ahmadinejad's outrage over the contact between Israel and
Syria. Sources close to the Iranian president told the London-based
Asharq al-Awsat daily that Ahmadinejad has made his discontent over
the clandestine negotiations well known. He described the talks as a
"flagrant violation" of the mutual commitments between Syria and
Iran. Meanwhile, Damascus as reiterated its rejection of Israel's
demand that it sever ties with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas as a key
condition of any peace agreement. During a joint press conference
Mashaal held with Mottaki after their meeting, the exiled Hamas
leader was careful not to criticize the negotiations. He did say
however that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert lacks the political might to
make the moves necessary for peace with Syria. "There is great
skepticism concerning (Israel's) seriousness to return the Golan,"
Mashaal said. "It's
maneuvering and playing all the (negotiation) tracks – this is a
well known game and besides, Olmert's weakness will not allow him to
take this step." He was referring to the current ongoing
investigation against Olmert, who has recently been suspected of
receiving money unlawfully. Mashaal said he
was sure the renewed talks would not come at the expense of the
Palestinian track.
Israel: Russia may be selling Syria arms
The Jerusalem Post
(May 21, 2008)
- Fearing that
Damascus is acquiring advanced military platforms, Israel is closely
following meetings being held in Moscow this week between a
high-level Syrian military delegation and Russian Defense Ministry
officials. Senior government officials in Jerusalem said they have
been aware for several days of the Syrians' upcoming visit to the
Russian capital but that it was not yet clear which military
platforms Damascus was requesting. According to reports in the
Russian media, the delegation, led by Syrian Air Force commander
Gen. Akhmad al-Ratyb, will be in Moscow for five days and meet with
Russian Defense Ministry and Air Force officials, as well as visit
several military bases and units. According to the reports, the
talks will focus on arms sales - including submarines, anti-aircraft
missiles, the latest model MiG fighter jets and advanced
surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. Israel is particularly
concerned with a Syrian request for long-range S-300 surface-to-air
missiles that could threaten IAF jets flying on the Israeli side of
the Golan Heights. The S-300 is one of the best multi-target
anti-aircraft-missile systems in the world and reportedly can track
100 targets simultaneously while engaging 12 at the same time. Syria
recently received 36 Pantsir S1E air-defense systems from Russia.
Iran is believed to have already procured several S-300 systems to
protect its nuclear facilities. Israeli defense officials expressed
grave concern over the possibility that Syria would obtain these new
military platforms. Damascus, the officials said, had dramatically
increased defense spending recently. In the past three years, Syria
has spent more than $3 billion on weapons, up from less than $100
million in 2002. Officials said that Israel was working
diplomatically with Moscow to prevent the sales, but that for the
right amount of money, Russia would likely approve the sales in any
case. Israel is also extremely concerned about a possible sale of
the Iskander surface-to-surface missile system. The Iskander,
Israeli weapons experts said Tuesday, was the heir to the Scud and
was far superior to the ballistic missiles currently in Syria's
arsenal. The Iskander is propelled by solid fuel and has a range of
300 kilometers, with accuracy of about 20 meters. "This would
without a doubt be a major threat to Israel," one Israeli expert
said. Lastly, Syria is also reportedly interested in buying two
Amur-1650 submarines from Russia. The Amur 1650 is a diesel-electric
operated vessel and reportedly can strike salvo missile blows at
multiple targets simultaneously. Syria has a navy but does not have
operational submarines. more...
Report: Israel threatened to target Syria if
Hezbollah attacks
YNet News
(May 1, 2008) - Israel recently
conveyed a warning to Syria through a third party that it would hold
Damascus accountable if Hezbollah launched attacks on the Jewish state,
Israeli and European sources said on Friday. The sources, speaking on
condition of anonymity, said the warning stemmed largely from Israeli
concerns that Hezbollah would launch salvoes of cross-border rockets to
coincide with any major Israeli offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza
Strip. The sources said the message was conveyed in February through at
least one European intermediary following the assassination of a top
Hezbollah commander and before this month's five-day Israeli offensive
in the Gaza Strip. After the group's senior commander, Imad Mugniyah,
was killed in a bombing in Damascus, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah
threatened Israel with "open war." A European source familiar with the
matter noted that the message conveyed to Damascus said Syria could be
targeted by Israel even if Hezbollah's attack emanated from Lebanese
soil. An Israeli source with knowledge of government affairs said: "The
message was passed around late February, before the last round of
fighting in Gaza." "It has become clear to us Syria has to understand
there is a price for its use of proxy terrorism, especially as
Damascus is itself a proxy - the long-arm of Iran," the source said.
Another senior Israeli government official with knowledge of defence
affairs declined comment on whether a message was sent to Damascus, but
told Reuters: "This is sound strategy. Syria has significantly deepened
its involvement with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since the war." Asked
about the risk of an Israeli attack on Syria in response to a Hezbollah
attack, a British official said: "There is always a danger that a turn
of events here could prompt something on the northern border, which
would be a disaster."
Iran's Ambassador to Syria says Israel in worst ever condition
Mathaba
(May 13, 2008) - President's Advisor
and IRI Ambassador in Syria said here Monday occupying regime of Holy
Qods is currently in its worst ever condition, getting weaker with
passage of each day, and moving towards extinction. According to IRNA
correspondent in Syria, Hojjatoleslam Seyyed Ahmad Moussavi made the
comment here on Monday night at the opening ceremony of a conference
titled "Repatriation, A Sacred And Legitimate Right", sponsored by
Damascus based Arab Writers Union. Moussavi added, "Israel has ever
since its establishment been serving the colonialist, and later on
neo-colonialist Western powers as a tool for strengthening their
hegemony in this sensitive region." The Iranian diplomat added, "The US
President assumes that the entire nations in this region are waiting for
him to issue commands and obey them, but the Americans are today
beginning to realize that not only that has been a simple minded
assumption, but also the US and Israeli plots for the region are facing
humiliating defeats in the region one after the other." Referring to the
existence of numerous conflicts and difficulties within the Islamic and
Arab worlds, he said, "Despite all those problems and challenges, the
root cause of most of which is US and Israeli plots, the victory of
Muslims in the long run is easy to predict." The Islamic Republic of
Iran's ambassador to Syria emphasized that freedom and liberation cannot
be achieved without tolerating the hardships of Jihad (sacred defensive
war), resistance, and unity. He added, "In order to achieve
independence, freedom, and competence in facing the ever increasing
challenges in today's world, the world Muslims need to get acquainted
with the culture of resistance, and to keep alight the light of hope for
embracing final victory in their hearts." Hojjatoleslam Moussavi who was
addressing the audience at the conference on the verge of the 60th
wretched anniversary of Israel's illegitimate establishment meanwhile
warned the Muslims to beware of the incessant cultural onslaught of the
West. He added, "The main objective of this onslaught is annihilation of
the Islamic and indigenous values of our nations, as well as braking the
bonds of unity within the Islamic and Arab societies." The Zionists
occupied the major part of Palestine's lands on May 15th, 1948 and in
1967 seized the entire territory of that oppressed nation. The
Palestinians refer to the latter day, when they lost their lands, became
homeless, and were broadly massacred by the Zionists as "Yaum ul-Nikba"
(The Wretched Day), remembering it as the most catastrophic day in their
history, but the illegitimate Zionist state celebrates the same day
annually. Mousavi then referred to the occupation of Palestine initially
by the British forces, and then handing it to the agents of the
International Zionism, who facilitated for the three waves of the world
Jews' migration to that holy land as the most perilous plot hatched n
the West against the Islamic World. He emphasized, "Accusing the world
Muslims of nurturing terrorists and of having terrorist tendencies
today, is a stage in continuation of the same nasty plot." Mousavi said,
"The late founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Imam Khomeini (P)
considered defending the Palestinian nation, and their ideals a top
priority of Iran's foreign policy. Iran's ambassador to Damascus added,
"A couple of signs of remaining faithful to that policy is his
announcement of the last Friday of the fasting month of Ramadan as the
International Qods Day, closure f Israel's embassy in Tehran, and
establishment of Palestine's Embassy in its place soon after the victory
of the Islamic Revolution." The two-day conference is held in the
presence of a large number of Iranian and Arab Alims and thinkers. Among
the prominent Arab personalities at the conference there are the head of
the Arab Writers Union, Hussain Jum'ah, Deputy Secretary General of
Palestine's Islamic Jihad Movement, Amal, and head of Iran-Arab
Friendship Committee, Adnan Abu-Nasser.
Israeli envoy to UN calls Carter 'a bigot' for meeting Meshal
Haaretz
(April 25, 2008) - Israel's ambassador
to the United Nations on Thursday called former President Jimmy
Carter "a bigot" for meeting with the leader of the militant Hamas
movement in Syria. Carter, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, "went to the
region with soiled hands and came back with bloody hands after
shaking the hand of Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas," Ambassador
Dan Gillerman told a luncheon briefing for reporters. The diplomat
was questioned about problems facing his country during a
wide-ranging discussion with reporters lasting more than an hour.
The briefing was sponsored by The Israel Project, a
Washington-based, media-oriented advocacy group. The ambassador's
harsh words for Carter came days after the ex-president met with
Meshal for seven hours in Damascus to negotiate a cease-fire with
Gaza's Hamas rulers. Carter then called Meshal on Monday to try to
get him to agree to a one-month truce without conditions, but the
Hamas leader rejected the idea. The ambassador called last weekend's
encounter "a very sad episode in American history." He said it was
"a shame" to see Carter, who had done "good things" as a former
president, "turn into what I believe to be a bigot." Reacting to the
ambassador's comments, former Meretz chairman MK Yossi Beilin on
Friday urged the state to recall Gillerman from his post. Telephone
calls by The Associated Press to two Atlanta numbers for Carter were
not immediately returned Thursday. During Carter's visit, Gillerman
said, Hamas "was shelling our cities and maiming and injuring and
wounding Israeli babies and Israeli children." The ambassador
noted that Hamas is armed and trained by Iran, whose president once
called for Israel to be "wiped off the map." "The real danger,
the real problem is not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the real
threat is Iran," he said. ... Gillerman called Syria a
"destabilizing influence" in the Middle East. "You see Syria's
hosting, very hospitably and warmly, over 10 terror organizations in
Damascus," the ambassador said, adding that the country also
supports Hezbollah, an anti-Israeli Shiite group in Lebanon with
close ties to Iran and Syria. "Basically, Syria and Iran, together
with Hamas and Hezbollah, are the main axes of terror and evil in
the world," the Israeli ambassador said. more...
Concerns mount ahead of US briefing on IAF strike in Syria
The Jerusalem Post
(April 23, 2008) - US Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates said Wednesday that the American public would
"soon" learn the details of North Korea's nuclear involvement with
Syria, despite fears in Jerusalem that such revelations could push
Syria to attack Israel. Israel has registered its opposition to
releasing details connected to the IAF's September 6 strike on what
foreign media reports have said was likely a nuclear reactor being
built in northeastern Syria with the help of North Korea. But
members of Congress have been clamoring for briefings on what the
administration knows about the incident and what it means for North
Korean nuclear proliferation amid concerns over US concessions to
the East Asian country in exchange for ending its nuclear program.
Select congressional panels, including the Senate and House
intelligence committees, are set to receive closed briefings
Thursday on what the administration knows about North Korean-Syrian
nuclear ties. Top defense officials expressed concern Wednesday that
the details revealed in the congressional hearing would "embarrass"
Syrian President Bashar Assad - who has refused to confirm reports
on the nature of the site - and might create pressure from within
his regime to respond militarily against Israel. "Syria thinks it
owes us for what happened in September," a senior Israeli defense
official said, adding that the congressional hearing could also
force Assad to reject peace talks with Israel to show leadership in
the face of growing internal criticism. Since the air strike, Israel
has refused to publicly reveal details on the site, and the military
censor has imposed tight restrictions on what details the Israeli
press is allowed to publish. The Wall Street Journal reported on
Tuesday that US intelligence officials would tell the US legislators
that North Korea was helping Syria to build a plutonium-fueled
reactor. Following the September 6 air strike, the Syrians razed the
site. At a press briefing on Wednesday morning, Gates would not
elaborate on the nature or timing of the revelations to be made
public, beyond his statement that they would come "soon," and
neither would spokesmen from the State Department and White House
when asked later in the day about his comments. There has been
speculation, however, that members of the media will be given
information following the closed congressional briefings. The United
States recently has stepped back from its push for a detailed
declaration addressing the North's alleged secret uranium enrichment
program and nuclear cooperation with Syria. Now, the United States
says it wants the North to simply acknowledge the American concerns
and then set up a system to verify that the country does not
continue such activity. more...
A Mystery in the Middle East
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
(April 8, 2008) - The Arab-Israeli
region of the Middle East is filled with
rumors of war. That is about as unusual as the rising of the sun, so
normally it would not be worth mentioning. But like the proverbial
broken clock that is right twice a day, such rumors occasionally will be
true. In this case, we don’t know that they are true, and certainly it’s
not the rumors that are driving us. But other things — minor and readily
explicable individually — have drawn our attention to the possibility
that something is happening. The first thing that drew our attention was
a minor, routine matter. Back in February, the United States started
purchasing oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR is a
reserve of crude oil stored in underground salt domes. Back in February,
it stood at 96.2 percent of capacity, which is pretty full as far as we
are concerned. But the U.S. Department of Energy decided to increase its
capacity. This move came in spite of record-high oil prices and the fact
that the purchase would not help matters. It also came despite potential
political fallout, since during times like these there is generally
pressure to release reserves. Part of the step could have been the
bureaucracy cranking away, and part of it could have been the feeling
that the step didn’t make much difference. But part of it could have
been based on real fears of a disruption in oil supplies. By itself, the
move meant nothing. But it did cause us to become thoughtful. Also in
February, someone
assassinated Imad Mughniyah, a leader of Hezbollah, in a car bomb
explosion in Syria. It was assumed the Israelis had killed him, although
there were some suspicions the Syrians might have had him killed for
their own arcane reasons. In any case, Hezbollah publicly claimed the
Israelis killed Mughniyah, and therefore it was expected the militant
Shiite group would take revenge. In the past, Hezbollah responded
not by attacking Israel but by
attacking Jewish targets elsewhere, as in the Buenos Aires attacks
of 1992 and 1994. In March, the United States decided to dispatch the
USS Cole, then under Sixth Fleet command, to
Lebanese coastal waters. Washington later replaced it with two
escorts from the Nassau (LHA-4) Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG),
reportedly maintaining a minor naval presence in the area. (Most of the
ESG, on a regularly scheduled deployment, is no more than a few days
sail from the coast, as it remains in the Mediterranean Sea.) The reason
given for the American naval presence was to serve as a warning to the
Syrians not to involve themselves in Lebanese affairs. The exact mission
of the naval presence off the Levantine coast — and the exact deterrent
function it served — was not clear, but there they were. The Sixth Fleet
has gone out of its way to park and maintain U.S. warships off the
Lebanese coast. Hezbollah leaders being killed by the Israelis and the
presence of American ships off the shores of Mediterranean countries are
not news in and of themselves. These things happen. The killing of
Mughniyah is notable only to point out that as much as Israel might have
wanted him dead, the Israelis knew this fight would escalate. But anyone
would have known this. So all we know is that whoever killed Mughniyah
wanted to trigger a conflict. The U.S. naval presence off the Levantine
coast is notable in that Washington, rather busy with matters elsewhere,
found the bandwidth to get involved here as well. With the situation
becoming tense, the Israelis announced in March that they would carry
out an exercise in April called
Turning Point 2. Once again, an Israeli military exercise is hardly
interesting news. But the Syrians apparently got quite interested. After
the announcement, the Syrians
deployed three divisions — two armored, one mechanized — to the
Lebanese-Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley, the western part of which is
Hezbollah’s stronghold. The Syrians didn’t appear to be aggressive.
Rather, they deployed these forces in a defensive posture, in a way
walling off their part of the valley. The Syrians are well aware that in
the event of a conventional war with Israel, they would experience a
short but exciting life, as they say. They thus are hardly going to
attack Israel. The deployment therefore seemed intended to keep the
Israelis on the Lebanese side of the border — on the apparent assumption
the Israelis were going into the Bekaa Valley. Despite Israeli and
Syrian denials of the Syrian troop buildup along the border, Stratfor
sources maintain that the
buildup in fact happened. Normally, Israel would be jumping at the
chance to trumpet Syrian aggression in response to these troop
movements, but, instead, the Israelis downplayed the buildup. When the
Israelis kicked off Turning Point 2, which we regard as a pretty
interesting name, it turned out to be the largest exercise in Israeli
history. It involved the entire country, and was designed to test civil
defenses and the ability of the national command authority to continue
to function in the event of an attack with unconventional weapons —
chemical and nuclear, we would assume. This was a costly exercise. It
also involved calling up reserves, some of them for the exercise, and,
by some reports, others for deployment to the north against Syria.
Israel does not call up reserves casually. Reserve call-ups are
expensive and disrupt the civilian economy. These appear small, but in
the environment of Turning Point 2, it would not be difficult to
mobilize larger forces without being noticed. The Syrians already were
deeply concerned by the Israeli exercise. Eventually, the Lebanese
government got worried, too, and started to evacuate some civilians from
the South. Hezbollah, which still hadn’t retaliated for the Mughniyah
assassination, also claimed the Israelis were about to attack it, and
reportedly went on alert and mobilized its forces. The Americans, who
normally issue warnings and cautions to everyone, said nothing to try to
calm the situation. They just sat offshore on their ships. more...
Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria
World Tribune
(April 8, 2008) - Israel's intelligence
community has concluded that the next war would involve missiles and
Hizbullah, last at least a month and include Syria. The intelligence
community has drafted a series of scenarios for Israel's emergency
services to prepare for future war. The scenarios envisioned the next
war as including massive missile and rocket salvos, some of them
containing chemical weapons, on Israeli cities. "The scenarios are based
on Arab military capability rather than intentions," an Israeli
government source said. "The war in Lebanon was also seen as a taste of
what a full-scale war would bring." Officials said Israel's military,
police and emergency services have been on high alert for an attack by
Hizbullah, Syria or Iran, Middle East Newsline reported. They said the
current alert would last throughout April and did not rule out a
continuation of high combat-readiness for the rest of 2008. Under the
scenarios, hundreds of Israelis would be killed and thousands injured in
missile strikes on Tel Aviv. The enemy missiles would target strategic
facilities, including Israel's Ben-Gurion International Airport.
Syria was also expected to be a participant in the next war against
Israel. The intelligence community envisioned Hizbullah, Iran and
Syria coordinating strikes on northern and central Israel. The Hamas
regime and the Palestinian Authority would also fire rockets from the
West Bank and Gaza Strip. In one scenario, Iran would also attack the
Jewish state. The intelligence community did not expect Iran to fire
nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, but said such an attack
could stem from Syria. more...
Syria on Alert 'Because Hizbullah Revenge Attack is Near'
Israel National News
(April 6, 2008) - Syria has raised the
state of alert of its armed forces because it knows Hizbullah's revenge
attack against Israel for the killing of Imad Mughniyeh is near,
according to Israel's Channel 2 TV. Soon after Mughniyeh's death, Israel
warned Syria that it would hold it responsible for any revenge attack
launched by Hizbullah for the killing of Mughniyeh, its operations
officer. Syria is due to release its official findings in the probe into
Mughniyeh's death. He was killed in an explosion in Damascus in
February. The paper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, which is published in London,
reported that since Mughniyeh's death, Syria has arrested dozens of
suspects, including "Palestinians and senior Syrian army officers."
Sources in Damascus told the paper that the investigation established
that foreigners were behind the murder of Mughniyeh. Syria has accused
Israel of being behind the assassination. 'Assassination planned in
Syria' Meanwhile, former Syrian vice president Abdel Khalim Khaddam
is accusing Syria of killing Muyghniyeh. Interviewed by a Lebanese
newspaper, Khaddam said that the head of Syrian intelligence was
replaced because the investigation he conducted showed that those who
planned the assassination came from within Syria. Khaddam was forced
into exile and took up residence in Europe after he criticized the
regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Hizbullah's Deputy Director
Sheikh Naeem Kassem said Sunday that the Israeli Home Front exercise is
a preparation for war and part of "Israel's aggressive character."
Kassem said the exercise had three purposes: first, to boost the morale
of the Israeli people, which has been low since the Second Lebanon War;
second, to convince the Israelis that the army has overcome the failure
and is ready and has drawn all the lessons from the war; and third, he
explained, "it is part of the preparations for war, because Israel is
always on a war footing." The Al-Arabiyah television network reported
Sunday that the Lebanese military ordered residents of southern villages
to move away from the border with Israel. According to the report, the
Lebanese Army set up dirt roadblocks and inspection towers along the
border with Israel to prevent Lebanese civilians from getting too close
to the fence. Tension between Israel and Syria has been high recently,
and there were reports that Defense Minister Ehud Barak cancelled his
planned visit to Germany this week because of it. Defense Ministry
advisor Amos Gilad denied this report and said that the Defense Minister
changed his schedule because of a heavy workload. However, he also made
what reporters saw as a hinted threat at Syria, following reports that
Syrian forces were on a heightened state of alert. "Anyone who tries
to strike Israel should keep in mind that Israel is the strongest
country in the region and that its response will be hard and painful. We
are always alert and ready," Harel warned. more...
'Warning to Assad sparked tension'
The Jerusalem Post
(April 6, 2008) - Sources close to
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert confirmed a Channel 2 report Sunday that the
reason for the tension with Syria was a message Israel sent Damascus
warning that Bashar Assad's regime would be held responsible if Jews
around the world were harmed in retaliation for the killing of Hizbullah
arch-terrorist Imad Mugniyeh. Israel has not claimed credit for the
killing, but Syria and Hizbullah hold Israel responsible for Mugniyeh's
death. Hizbullah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to take revenge
against Jews abroad, and Syria drafted reserve soldiers last week as
tensions escalated. In a move likely to further enhance the tension with
Syria, Olmert reportedly approved an American request to allow
congressional hearings to reveal details of the strike on an alleged
Syrian nuclear installation that foreign sources have attributed to
Israel. Officials in US President George W. Bush's administration asked
to reveal the information in order to use it against North Korea. Olmert
agreed to the request, despite opposition from Israeli intelligence
officials. His advisers, Yoram Turbowitz and Shalom Turgeman, went to
Washington last week to speak about the issue with US National Security
Adviser Stephen Hadley and other top American officials. Olmert
downplayed the tension with Syria at the start of Sunday's cabinet
meeting and stressed that there was no connection between the current
security situation with Syria and Monday's drill in the Home Front
Command. "I want to emphasize that this is only a drill, with nothing
hiding behind it," Olmert told the cabinet. "All the reports about
heightened tension in the North are exaggerated. We have no secret
plans. This drill is not part of anything else. It seems to me that the
Syrians know this as well and they have no reason to analyze this drill
differently. "I would like to make it unequivocally clear that this is a
routine drill. The State of Israel is not intent on any violent
confrontation in the North. On the contrary, we have said more than once
that we have an interest in holding peace negotiations with Syria."
more...
Exclusive: Barak calls off German trip next week as Damascus raises war
alarm
DEBKAfile
(April 2, 2008) - Israel’s security
cabinet convened Wednesday, April 2, to examine the homeland’s
preparedness for war. It decided to redistribute the bio/chemical
warfare masks a few months after they were called in. DEBKAfile’s
military sources disclose intelligence data indicating the possibility
that Syria may transfer to Hizballah chemical or biological warheads
known to have been developed for its war arsenal. A few hours earlier,
the London-based al Quds al-Arabi quoted Damascus officials as claiming
that Israel is preparing a big attack on Syria and Hizballah. Syria
was said to have ordered a partial call-up of its military reserves.
DEBKAfile reports that Damascus has placed its missile units on the
alert after last week deploying two armored brigades on the
Beirut-Damascus highway under the command of President Bashar Assad’s
young brother Maher Assad, chief of the presidential guard. They were
posted there to block the road in case Israeli armored columns attempted
to reach Damascus through Lebanon. Our sources also note Syria plans to
release the findings of its inquiry into the death of Hizballah leader
Imad Mughniyeh in February. Sources close to Israel’s defense minister
Ehud Barak report he called off his trip to Germany next week because he
expects Damascus to use those findings to put Hizballah on the spot
where it can no longer duck exacting revenge for his death from Israel,
which is held responsible for his death. IDF sources report Iran has
sent Syria state of the art equipment for surveillance and eavesdropping
on Israeli military command centers and bases. Israel’s home defense
command scheduled April 6-10 a nationwide exercise to improve the home
front’s readiness for emergencies. Warning sirens will be tested on
April 8. Tuesday, Barak toured Israel’s northern border and reported “a
great deal of activity on the other side.” He added: “…we are learning
the lessons of the last war, Israel is the strongest country in the
region and I would not advise anyone on the other side to test us.” In
their briefing to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee
Tuesday morning, IDF intelligence officers confirmed intense Hizballah
activity, much of it in South Lebanon by operatives in civilian
disguise. The officers referred to the Lebanese Shiite terror group’s
rearmament with more powerful and longer-range rockets. On March 22,
DEBKAfile first revealed that Hizballah had more than trebled its
pre-war rocket arsenal. “Some of their 40,000 rockets of Syrian and
Iranian manufacture can hit Israeli targets as far south as Beersheba,
350 km. away. Not only has Tel Aviv come within range, but Hizballah and
the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza can between them now cover most of Israel
up to its southernmost tip at Eilat. The possibility is now under
consideration that these rockets may be armed with Syrian
non-conventional warheads. Damascus has also shipped to Hizballah
quantities of anti-air weapons, including shoulder-borne rockets and
scores of Russian-made anti-aircraft ZSU-100 automatic 14.4 mm caliber
cannon, which are most effective against low-flying aircraft,
helicopters and drones.
Report: Iranian, Syrian missiles to pound Israel in next war
YNet
News
(March 24, 2008) - Hundreds of dead, thousands of injured,
missile barrages on central Israel, full paralysis at Ben-Gurion
Airport, constantly bombed roads, nationwide power outages that last for
long hours, and whole regions' water supply being cut off – this is what
the next war could look like. A secret report recently distributed among
government ministries and local municipalities details various wartime
scenarios. The report deals with very harsh possibilities, including
some that are downright horrifying, formulated as part of the lessons
drawn in the wake of the Second Lebanon War. Notably, the document does
not aim to predict future developments with certainty, but rather, only
aims to serve as a guideline for civilian war preparations. The above
assessment is characterized as a "severe reasonable scenario" – that is,
it is not the gravest scenario, but also not the most favorable.
According to this scenario, the war will last for about a month and will
include the participation of Syria (military operations on the Golan
Heights front and the firing of many Scud missiles at the home front,)
Lebanon (the firing of thousands of Hizbullah rockets at the Galilee and
Haifa as well long-range missiles at central Israel,) and the
Palestinian Authority (relatively limited conflict that would include
short-range rockets fired from Gaza and the West Bank as well as terror
attacks such as suicide bombings within Israel.) According to this
scenario, Iran will also get involved in the war, but will only fire a
limited number of missiles rather than non-conventional weapons. In
addition to missile barrages, the scenario includes aerial strikes on
military and strategic targets, attacks on infrastructure facilities,
and attempted abductions of civilians and soldiers. Such hypothetical
war, according to the assessment, will leave 100-230 civilians dead, and
1,900-3,200 Israelis wounded. However, should Israel be attacked with
chemical weapons, the number of killed and wounded Israelis would
skyrocket to 16,000. Under such circumstances, as a result of missile
damage, chemical contamination, and the razing of homes the State would
have to evacuate as many as 227,000 Israelis from their homes. According
to the assessment, about 100,000 people would seek to leave the country
should such scenario materialize.
No Lebanon Breakthrough for Arabs
BBC News
(March
30, 2008) - An annual summit of the Arab League has ended in
Syria's capital Damascus with a call for an end to the political crisis
in Lebanon. But correspondents say there were no specific proposals to
solve the crisis, which has seen Lebanon without a president since
November. Only 11 heads of states from the 22-member organisation were
present, as key pro-Western leaders stayed away. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
Jordan sent low-level delegations. They blame Syria for the ongoing
political crisis in Lebanon - a charge denied by the government in
Damascus. The Lebanese government boycotted the summit completely. In a
final statement, the League called for a compromise candidate to be
elected president, and a national unity cabinet formed, AFP news agency
reported. But the BBC's Heba Saleh in Damascus says there were no
breakthroughs. Opening the meeting, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
denied his country was meddling in Lebanon. He was responding to
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who had accused Syria of
preventing the election of a consensus president in Beirut. Mr Assad
said his country was willing to join "Arab or non-Arab efforts" to end
Lebanon's political crisis "on condition that they are based on Lebanese
national consensus". But our correspondent says it will take more than
words to convince his critics, and Syria risks further isolation if
there is no immediate resolution to the Lebanon crisis. In Riyadh, the
Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, suggested Syria had not
abided by the Arab consensus on Lebanon. "The problem is that what was
decided unanimously in the Arab League, including by Syria, is not being
carried out," he said. The foreign minister called for
''counter-measures". Syria had billed the summit as a golden opportunity
for regional unity but there is little sign of this, BBC Middle East
correspondent Katya Adler reports from Damascus. She says the leaders of
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Lebanon are all staying at home because
they view Syria as a trouble-maker, too close to Iran and a destructive
force in Lebanon. Syria has accused them in the past of being
subservient to the US and Foreign Minister Walid Moualem has blamed
Washington for trying to "divide the Arab world". "They [the US] did
their best to prevent the summit but they failed," Mr Moualem said on
the eve of the summit.
Syria Deploys Three Military Divisions on the Border with Lebanon
Naharet
(March
23, 2008) - Syria has deployed three military divisions along
the borders with Lebanon amidst mounting tension in the region,
press reports said Sunday. The leading daily an-Nahar attributed the
report to well informed sources, noting that the deployment backs a
similar massing of fighters by pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in
the Bekaa valley, especially Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) in the Qoussayah
area. The development followed Hezbollah's open war declaration
against Israel after the Feb. 12 assassination in Damascus of the
party's Imad Mughniyeh by a bomb explosion. Hezbollah is sponsoring
a major rally in south Beirut's suburb of Rweis on Monday to
commemorate Mughniyeh, labeled commander of the "two victories" in
reference to the Liberation of south Lebanon from Israeli occupation
in May 2000 and the 34-day war against Israel in the summer of 2006.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has pledged that "thousands
of Imad Mughniyehs would confront the Zionist enemy if it invades
Lebanon." Israel has ordered its troops on alert to confront a
possible attack by Hezbollah operatives when the party marks
Mughniyeh's memorial rally on Monday, 40 days after his
assassination. 'Israel threatened Syria with strike if Hizbullah attacks' The Jerusalem Post (March 15, 2008) - Israel has secretly warned Syria that it may strike the country if Hizbullah attacks the Jewish state, Reuters reported on Friday. In early February Hizbullah threatened Israel with revenge following the assassination of the group's chief of operations, Imad Mughniyeh. Israel has denied involvement in his death. According to senior Israeli and European officials quoted by the news agency, later that month Israel secretly conveyed a message to Damascus through a third party that it would hold it accountable for any Hizbullah assault. "The message was passed around late February, before the last round of fighting in Gaza," an Israeli official said. "It has become clear to us [that] Syria has to understand there is a price for its use of proxy terrorism, especially as Damascus is itself a proxy - the long-arm of Iran." A European source said the message made it clear that Syria could be targeted, even if Hizbullah attacked from Lebanese soil. The sources said Israel was mainly concerned that the terror organization would barrage the north with rockets in the event of a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile an unnamed British official told the news agency that any flare-up in the north would be "a disaster." "The death of Mughniyeh [and] the threatened Hizbullah retaliation does leave a specter of a wider regional conflict," he said, adding that Israeli-Syrian peace talks under the circumstances were unlikely. "There's an interest on both sides but I think it's very difficult to move forward on it."| Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 |
Israel in cross-hairs of summer war?
World Net Daily
(March 13, 2008) - Britain's Secret Intelligence Service says
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are training hundreds of Hamas fighters to
prepare for an all-out war this summer against Israel, according to
Joseph Farah's G2
Bulletin. The Gaza-based organization's elite Izzedine al-Qassam
Brigade will form the southern front of an attack against the Jewish
state while Hezbollah will launch its simultaneous assault from southern
Lebanon, according to MI6. Analysts with the organization believe the
attack will come in the rundown of the Bush administration and closing
months of the bitter Democratic campaign. "With the Bush White House
virtually a spent force and both the Democrats and Republicans looking
inward to their conventions, there is mounting evidence that Tehran will
seize the opportunity to attack Israel through its surrogates, Hamas and
Hezbollah," said a senior intelligence source in London. MI6 analysts
have confirmed tortuous negotiations in which Egypt acted as an
intermediary between Hamas and Israel are now increasingly fragile.
Hamas, which is pledged to destroy Israel, is officially excluded by
Israel from direct negotiations with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's
government. But with the mounting threat of a simultaneous attack on
Israel from two fronts, several members of the Israeli security services
have begun to urge Olmert to meet with Hamas leaders. However,
hardliners like the head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, and Yuval Diskin, the
director-general of Israel's internal security service, Shin Bet, are
opposed to any negotiations. Dagan has told Olmert: "To talk to Hamas is
a waste of time. Gaza is a noxious mixture of our oxidized hopes." And
Diskin added last week: "While we would be talking, Hamas would be
sending still more of its fighters to Iran to be trained." MI6
undercover agents in Tehran – operating out of a secret base on the
country's border with Iraq – have established there are three training
camps. Israel to Hizbullah: Revenge Attack Could Mean War Israel National News (March 12, 2008) - Israel has recently warned Hizbullah that it will not hesitate to retaliate with war for a large scale attack on its citizens, Channel 10 – Nana news reported Wednesday. The Hizbullah attack is expected in revenge for the killing of its operations officer Imad Mughniyeh. Iranian TV vowed that Israel would face its "third destruction" on the 40th day after Mughniyeh's death, which will occur next Saturday. Israeli intelligence is picking up extensive "chatter" between Hizbullah and Iran but still has not located specific intentions to carry out a terror attack. Israeli military attachés worldwide have been instructed to change their routine movements and retired military persons were warned to exercise caution in their travels.| Iran | Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
Syrian Defense Minister receives a Russian Military delegation Syrian Arab News Agency (March 11, 2008) - Defense Minister L.t. Gen. Hassan Turkmani has received Gen.-Col. Aleksandr Nikolaevich Zelin, deputy chief of the Russian Federation Air Forces and an accompanying delegation. Talks during the meeting Monday dealt with the latest developments in the region and means of enhancing cooperation between the two countries.| Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog | Allies of Syria and Iran Ready to Confront Israel Naharet (March 10, 2008) - Political factions backed by Syria and Iran on Monday said they are prepared to confront any Israeli attack on Lebanon and declared support for the killing of eight students at a Jewish religious school in Jerusalem. The self-labeled Lebanese Parties issued a statement after their regular meeting at the offices in Sidon of Ousama Saad's Popular Nasserite Organization claiming the United States has dispatched naval vessels to the Mediterranean to "support the ruling majority." The statement said the groups are "fully prepared and perfectly ready to confront any Zionist aggression that leaders of the Zionist entity's criminal terror could launch." It praised as "heroic" the killing of Jewish religious students in Jerusalem, saying it was the "real and factual response to Fascist-Zionist practices carried out by the enemy's army in Gaza."| Israel | Islam | Isaiah 17 | Gog/Magog |
Syria 'intensely' arming itself
World Net Daily
(March 9, 2008) - Syria is in the midst of "intensely" arming
itself, placing into position rockets and missiles capable of striking
the entire Jewish state, according to an assessment presented to the
Knesset today by multiple Israeli security agencies. The announcement
follows a
WND exclusive report last month quoting security officials stating
Syria, aided by Russia and Iran, has been furiously acquiring rockets
and missiles, including projectiles capable of hitting any point in
Israel. The officials listed anti-tank, anti-aircraft and ballistic
missiles as some of the arms procured by Syria. Yesterday, Israel's
Mossad and Israel Defense Forces Military Intelligence chiefs presented
an annual security report to the Knesset warning of Syria's armament
program. The chiefs also warned of a possible flare-up at Israel's
northern border with the Hezbollah terror group and said in their
assessment Iran could cross the technological threshold enabling it to
assemble a nuclear bomb by the end of next year. The assessment came
after Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert announced last week negotiations between the Jewish state and
Syria should be seriously considered it if would bring an end to
Syrian-sponsored terrorism and Damascus' "involvement in the axis of
evil." The negotiations would aim for some sort of Israeli evacuation
from the Golan Heights strategic, mountainous territory looking down on
Israeli and Syrian population centers twice used by Damascus to launch
ground invasions into the Jewish state. Syria openly provides refuge to
Palestinian terror leaders, including the chiefs of Hamas and Islamic
Jihad, and has been accused of shipping weapons to Hezbollah. Damascus
is also accused of supporting the insurgency against U.S. troops in
Iraq. more...
Kuwaiti Paper: Mega-Attack on Israel in March
Israel National News
(February
26, 2008) - The Kuwaiti daily Al-Watan quoted "top Western
sources" Monday saying that, "according to reliable intelligence
information, Hizbullah has begun planning a large-scale attack on Israel
in retaliation for its [alleged] assassination of senior Hizbullah
commander Imad Mughniyah." According to the report, translated by MEMRI,
the attack is being planned in coordination with Syria and Iran, and is
to take place before the Arab summit next month. It was also reported
that there would be a simultaneous terrorist escalation by Hamas,
Islamic Jihad, and other PA groups in Gaza.
Syria, Iran foresee large clash with Israel
Haaretz
(February
17, 2008) - Syrian and Iranian officials believe there will be a
serious military confrontation with Israel in the near future, according
to Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese daily affiliated with Hezbollah. Hezbollah's
response to the assassination of Imad Mughniyah, the organization's
operations chief, will force Israel to make a "difficult decision," the
newspaper stated in an editorial. Hezbollah blames Israel for
Mughniyah's assassination in Damascus last week. Ibrahim al-Amin, Al-Akhbar's
editor, said in a televised interview that Hezbollah does not intend to
accept Mughniyah's assassination quietly. Hezbollah's response "will
force Israel to make a big decision," he said. However, he insisted
that Hezbollah was not interested in a war with Israel. Meanwhile, the
defense establishment is bracing for a response from Hezbollah. It is
concerned the group may use an explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicle
to attack a civilian or military target in northern or central Israel.
The Israel Air Force is on alert for this. To date, Hezbollah has
dispatched five Iranian-made drones against Israel, three of them during
the Second Lebanon War in August 2006. Two were shot down by the air
force, and one crashed. The drones were loaded with dozens of kilograms
of high-grade explosives and apparently had been intended to crash in
the heavily populated Dan region. The IDF also has bolstered its forces
along the northern border, anticipating Hezbollah may launch a massive
rocket attack on the area. However, the army has no specific information
about the group's intentions in this regard. Meanwhile, the Lebanese
media announced that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has
appointed a successor to Mughniyah, but his identity has not been
revealed. Israeli sources said Mughniyah's successor is one of three
persons: Ibrahim Akil, who is in charge of southern Lebanon; Fuad Sukur,
a senior militia figure; or Talal Hamiyah, who was Mughniyah's deputy.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese media said none of these men are being
considered. The Lebanese daily Al-Safir reported yesterday that
Hezbollah has gone on high alert in southern Lebanon and evacuated all
of its local headquarters, fearing Israeli air strikes. According to the
report, the organization has mobilized 50,000 militiamen. Meanwhile, in
Syria, the investigation into Mughniyah's assassination continues. "The
investigation is being carried out with complete secrecy because of
Mughniyah's sensitive location before the ambush," Al-Akhbar reported
yesterday. Mughniyah had emerged from a meeting shortly before he was
killed. He was killed near the offices of the chief of Syrian
intelligence, Asif Shuwekat, who is President Bashar Assad's
brother-in-law. Several Palestinians were arrested for suspected
involvement in the killing, the newspaper reported.
'Syria
and Iran anticipating serious military clash with Israel'
Jerusalem Newswire
(February 17, 2008) - Damascus and Tehran
expect to soon be caught up in a military confrontation with Israel.
According to a report in Al-Ahkbar, a Lebanese newspaper said to be
affiliated with Hizb'allah, the Syrian and Iranian-sponsored terrorist
organization does not intend to let last week's execution of top
terrorist Amad Mugniyah be left unanswered. The concensus in the region
is that Israel was behind the blowing up of Mugniyah's car, and
Hizb'allah chief Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to make Israel pay in "open
war." Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the cabinet in Jerusalem Sunday
he has put the Israeli Air Force on alert for a possible Hizb'allah
attack against Jewish communities in the north. Barak said Israel was
prepared for the possibility that an explosives-laden pilotless drone
could be sent to explode inside an Israeli community.
Barkat: Secret agreement to divide Jerusalem reached
YNet News
(February 13,
2008) - Jerusalem municipal opposition leader accuses Prime
Minister Olmert, Vice Premier Ramon of 'deceiving Israeli citizens'.
Ramon aide: This is nonsense. Israeli and Palestinian
representatives have reached an agreement to divide Jerusalem, the
capital's municipal opposition leader Nir Barkat said Wednesday. "(Vice
Premier) Haim Ramon and the prime minister are deceiving Israel's
citizens," Barkat added after exchanging letters with Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni on the negotiations with the Palestinians. Barkat based his
accusations on information from "senior sources" which he refused to
reveal, claiming that Ramon and Palestinian tycoon Muhammad Rashid had
agreed in secret talks on Jerusalem's division. "Livni refuses to reveal
the fundamental information she has, according to which there is a
secret channel which is not being led by the Foreign Ministry. Knowing
this makes her an accomplice in this political deceit, which is really
aimed at dividing Jerusalem behind Israeli citizens' backs," said
Barkat. In his letter to Livni, Barkat wrote, "I was amazed to learn
that a senior and official Palestinian source was quoted as saying that
'we can say that Israel is ready to pullout of all the Arab villages and
neighborhoods in Jerusalem.'" He went on to demand that "the secret
agreements" be revealed or that denied. "I would like to remind you that
if this is true, it constitutes a complete deviation from Kadima's basic
principles, a blatant violation of Basic Law: Jerusalem, a breach of the
voter's trust and an undermining of the Knesset's sovereignty," he
wrote. The foreign minister replied in a letter, "In Annapolis (peace
conference) it was decided that Israel and the Palestinians would hold
negotiations in which all the core issues would be discussed, with no
exception," confirming that negotiations are being held on the Jerusalem
issue, contrary to Prime Minister Ehud Olmer's remarks in Berlin that
the Jerusalem issue would be postponed to the end of the process. Livni
noted in her letter that "the negotiations are being conducted according
to an agreement between the parties, which states that until everything
is agreed upon there will be no agreement, and that the contents will
not be made public." An official at Ramon's office said in response,
"This is nonsense. These remarks are unfounded and nothing of this kind
took place." Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem said in response to
Barkat's claims, "This is a groundless conspiracy theory. The prime
minister and the Palestinian president meet face to face and do not need
anyone's mediation. "The negotiations are being held in a responsible
manner by the prime minister opposite the Palestinian Authority. There
is no need for a secret channel, and therefore all attempts to invent
secret chancels are doomed to fail." Barkat's remarks joined voices from
the coalition by members of the Shas faction, who threatened to quit the
government once negotiations on Jerusalem are launched. Last week,
Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Eli Yishai called on the government
to cease the negotiations with the Palestinians following the terror
attack in Dimona.
Bad News in Gaza? Look For Tehran
World Jewish Congress Newsletter
(February 6, 2008) - Wherever you
find bad news in Gaza or bad news in the West Bank, you will find Tehran
and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist
groups who receive their money and marching orders from the Iranian
regime and do its bidding. Take the case of the fence in Gaza. In these
last weeks, the fence and border between the divided city of Rafah and
Gaza was blown up by Hamas, causing a refugee flood into the Sinai for,
we were told, flour and toothpaste. In fact, the cause was a deliberate,
preplanned provocation. This process started about one to 3 months ago
as Hamas, under the electronic gaze of the Egyptians, utilized torches
to cut the base supports of the fence and cause its collapse. Sick of
incessant rocket attacks emanating from Gaza, Israel was considering
re-entering and re-taking the Philadephi route to stop the weapons
smuggling through the tunnels. Hamas then began undermining the fence to
prepare explosions to kill the Israelis who might be coming into the
area. When that did not happen, they hatched this plot of fabricated
fuel shortages. The Egyptians knew about this for weeks since they had
the surveillance pictures but did not share the information. It is
interesting to note that Mubarak and Ahmadinejad had a conversation the
day before the fence fell. Also interesting is the fact that this fall
coincided with a conference in Damascus of Arab rejectionists of the
Annapolis peace conference. Over 300 Palestinian terrorists leaders were
convened by Iran and Syria in a gathering originally slated to take
place during the Annapolis meeting but which was postponed when Syria
decided to actually go to Annapolis. So it was held precisely at the
time of the breaking down of the wall in Gaza. The tunnels were not
constructed in such a way that could convey large-sized ordinance into
Gaza. But now that the wall is destroyed, we hear of large anti-aircraft
weapons, katyushas and other arms being transferred uninterrupted. Not
transfers of fuel - that "shortage" was an excuse manufactured to
justify the breach in the wall. Hamas will now be able to increase the
striking range of its katyushas and its anti-aircraft weapons. There is
a new chilling possibility of Hamas hitting Ashkelon. One wonders if
Egypt fully anticipated what problems might be created to its own
detriment. Many of those who flooded into Egypt are going to remain
there. Now that there are terrorists in the Sinai with large amounts of
explosives and other weapons that could not fit into a tunnel, cities in
Egypt as well as in Israel may become targets. The policy of letting
Israel bleed a little in order to appease the Muslim radicals could
backfire. Allowing this to go on encourages Hamas to continue its
violent provocations, so that Israel is again forced to be on the
defensive. Another Hamastan may be born in the Sinai, which would
provide them with a base from which to operate in Egypt and expand their
influence. Iran's proxies would have an even greater leg up over Abbas.
With the transfer of katyusha rockets into Gaza, what we now have is a
baby Bek'aa, situated four miles from Ashkelon, like the baby
Hezbollahstan in the north that was created with the same technology and
money coming from Iran, through Hezbollah. This is a long-term change -
the whole paradigm of the Middle East changes in the region because of
what happened in Gaza. Now the question is what can Israel do about it?
Frankly, its options are limited. One and a half million people in Gaza
are miserably abused by their leadership, the Hamas leaders, who are
committed to following the orders of Tehran's leaders who make
apocalyptic promises to wipe Israel off the map. Now they have
established at least the possibility of a firing platform about four
miles from the electric grid in Ashkelon, within easy shot of the Jewish
residents living there. The international community must take notice:
Gaza-Hamastan is a serious threat to the comity of the region -
engineered and financed by Tehran.
In Response to an Israeli Attack, Iran Can, With Syria's Help, Wipe Out Half of Israel MEMRI (January 23, 2008) - Following reports on Israel's January 17, 2008 test of the Jericho III missile, which has a range of 4,500 km, the Iranian website Tabnak, which is affiliated with Iranian Expediency Council secretary and former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezai, wrote that the missile's addition to Israel's arsenal does not change the balance of power between Israel and Iran. The website stated that in the event of a conflict with Israel, Iran would use its strategic alliance with Syria to fire missiles at Israel from Syrian territory.[1] It also hinted that, in addition to assistance from Syria, any attack by Israel would also bring retaliation by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hizbullah. [2] Further, in an interview on Al-Jazeera TV, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed the Israeli missile test, saying that "even before this missile test, the Zionist regime enjoyed this military technology, because of its support from several powers. But such measures will not improve its situation, and will not prevent its fall. The Zionist regime has lost the rationale on which its existence was based, and all nations identify it as criminal. Therefore, it will not achieve legitimacy for its existence through threats and sowing fear."[3] The following are the main points of the Tabnak article: [4]
"Therefore, it can be explicitly said that Israel's recent missile test, on January 17, changes Iran's missile defense balance [against Israel] not one whit, and does not impinge on a single one of its defense doctrines... For this reason, this missile test does not create a new situation or [new] result, in any arena of possible confrontation between Iran and Israel... "Thus [it appears that] the real idea behind this
Israeli missile test is psychological warfare [in order to affect]
public opinion in Israel, and not psychological warfare against Iran."
U.S. Wary of Warming Syrian-Turkish Ties NPR (January
10, 2008) - One place President George Bush is not visiting on
his tour of the Middle East is Syria. Relations are icy, with Washington
and Damascus at odds over Lebanon, the Arab-Israel conflict, the Iraq
war and Iran. But Syria is rapidly improving ties with a key U.S. ally
in the region, Turkey. And that is a development that could have
substantial repercussions, particularly for Washington.
Syrians Have Much to Gain Syria's
ambassador in Washington, Imad Moustapha, characterizes his country's
ties with Turkey as a "honeymoon" and the "best possible relations
between any two neighborly countries in the world." Such enthusiasm over
ties with Turkey is a worry for the United States, says Omer Taspinar, a
Turkish analyst at the U.S. War College. "I think the Syrians have a lot
to gain. That's why it is in their interests to send a signal they are
not isolated and they have Turkey on their side. "Syria is perceived as
the underdog against the U.S. So, the more the U.S. says, 'Don't talk to
Syria,' I think, the more it will become attractive for Turkish public
opinion," Taspinar says. And that may be why Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad got such a warm welcome on a recent trip to Turkey. With his
attractive young wife, Assad toured the capital with Turkey's president
and prime minister. The TV cameras were there as they opened a new
Turkish shopping center. The coverage of smiling presidents and their
wives surprised even Syrians, says George Sageur, a Syrian-American
businessman. The response to the president and his wife — as the face of
Syria — has been tremendous in Turkey, he says. They were "received
very, very well indeed." Iraq War Marked Change in
Syrian-Turkish Relations It's a marked improvement from
tensions a decade ago. The two countries seemed on the verge of war
after Turkey accused Syria of harboring a Kurdish rebel leader. But that
was all before the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Now, Turkey and Syria have
shared concerns. Both have sizeable Kurdish populations. Both worry
about the nationalist goals of the Kurds in neighboring Iraq. And both
are wary of U.S. plans in the region, says Taspinar. "The real impetus
for these visits is the Kurdish question — let's not miss the real
picture here. I think Turks are very much disillusioned with this whole
Iraq episode." Syria has benefited from that disillusionment. Because of
expanded trade relations, Turkish language classes in Damascus are now
popular for Syrian Arabic speakers. Syria's deputy prime minister was in
Turkey last week to sign an agreement for a joint natural gas pipeline.
"The relationship with Turkey has an economic aspect, but it is also
very important for domestic legitimacy," says Josh Landis, an American
academic who writes an influential blog on Syria. Landis says the new
partnership with Turkey has helped Syria's president blunt a domestic
problem: Many of Syria's majority Sunni Muslims do not like Assad's
close relations with Shiite Iran. more...
Hamas averages 8.2 missiles a day in 2007, steps up Iran-Syrian-backed
preparations for full-scale war
DEBKAfile (January 1, 2008) -
The annual report of Israel’s domestic intelligence service, ShinShin
BetBet, paints a troubling picture of a Hamas-ruled government in Gaza
expanding its efforts to build a war machine capable of taking on Israel
in full-scale military combat, with active input from Iran and Syria. In
the outgoing year, Hamas and its allies fired more than 1.300 Qassam
missiles and 1,700 mortar shells from Gaza, subjecting Israeli
communities in an expanding radius to a daily average of 8.2
projectiles. At the same time, the ShinShin BetBet and IDF were
strikingly successful in their preventive campaign. They thwarted 29
major attacks inside Israel originating in Gaza, and the number of
Israelis killed by terrorists declined from 50 in 2005 and 24 in 2006 to
13 in 2007. Nonetheless, the Palestinians mounted a total of 2,946
Palestinian terrorist attacks, 9 less than 2006, including a single
suicide bombing in Eilat and another three that were intercepted in
time. No let-up is expected next year. In 2007, Hamas smuggled into Gaza
more than 80 tons of explosives for use in the fabrication of missiles
and bombs, including roadside devices laid down against an Israeli
military incursion. Al Qaeda and its Palestinian affiliates recently
stepped up their participation in attacks, more conspicuously since
Fatah al Islam set up operations in Gaza after being thrown out of its
northern haven in Lebanon four months ago. Israeli officials said that
Osama bin Laden’s threat to “liberate every inch of Palestine” is being
taken seriously. The ShinShin BetBet reports that hundreds of Hamas
operatives were smuggled through the Sinai tunnels out to Iran and Syria
and back for special 2-6 month courses at facilities near Tehran and
Damascus in commando combat and the manufacture and launching of
missiles. Among them were officers and naval commandos. The ShinShin
BetBet report notes that Hamas’ smuggling projects spread out from Gaza
to the West Bank, where a new terror machine is taking shape. Local
terrorist elements are being taught to manufacture and use Qassam
missiles and high-trajectory weapons, thereby bringing Israel’s central
coastal cities, including Tel Aviv, within range. Scores of West Bank
Hamas activitists were also sent to Iran and Syria to study missile
manufacture. During most of 2007, Iran’s Lebanese surrogate, Hizballah,
funded the West Bank project at the rate of the equivalent of $10
million per month. The transfers slowed in recent months. The ShinShin
BetBet reports that Hizballah is diverting more funds to building its
own substantial new infrastructures in SouthSouth LebanonLebanon and
north of the LitaniLitani RiverRiver. |